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Wednesday June 5, 2013 - 10:27:00 GMT
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TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Overall dealers seemed to have no appetite to force a break of the recent range ahead of key European rate decision and US Payroll data

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Overall dealers seemed to have no appetite to force a break of the recent range ahead of key European rate decision and US Payroll data
Wed, 05 Jun 2013 5:38 AM EST

***Notes/Observations***
- US equities close lower on a Tuesday for the first time this year.
-Japan PM Abe unveiled new growth plan (3rd arrow) which targeted 2% real GDP and 3% nominal GDP over next decade; no mention of changes to the national pension fund
-Australia Q1 GDP Q/Q registers a small miss at +0.6% +0.7%e
-China May HSBC PMI Services relatively unchanged at 51.2 vs 51.1 last month
- Major European PMI Services basically come in a touch below expectations; with UK being the exception
- UK May PMI Services: 54.9 v 53.1e; highest since Mar 2012
- Euro Zone Q1 GDP (2nd reading) and April Retail Sales data slightly misses expectations


***Economic Data***
- (IN) India May HSBC-Markit Services PMI: 53.6 v 50.7 prior; highest since Feb and 19th straight reading in expansion territory
- (RU) Russia May Services PMI: 51.4 v 52.6e' lowest reading since Sept 2010 but 33rd straight month in expansion territory

- (FI) Finland Q1 GDP Q/Q: -0.1% v -0.1%e; Y/Y: -2.1% v -2.0%e
- (SE) Sweden May PMI Services: 47.7 v 49.3e
- (CZ) Czech Apr Retail Sales Y/Y: +1.5% v -0.3%e; first positive reading in 6 months
- (CZ) Czech Q1 Avg Real Wage Y/Y: -2.2% v -0.3%e
- (RO) Romania Q1 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: 0.7% v 0.5% prior; Y/Y: 2.2% v 2.1% prior
- (HU) Hungary Apr Retail Trade Y/Y: +3.4% v -0.6%e; largest rise in 7 years
- (EU) ECB 34M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 151M prior; 101.4B parked in deposit facility vs. 101.9B prior
- (ES) Spain May Services PMI: 45.3e v 44.4 prior; 23-month high but still 23rd straight reading in contraction territory
- (IT) Italy May PMI Services: 46.5 v 47.5e; 24th straight contraction
- (FR) France May Final PMI Services: 44.3 v 44.3e; 9th straight month of contraction but highest reading so far this year
- (DE) Germany PMI May Final PMI Services: 49.7v 49.8e; confirms first contraction in 5 months
- (EU) Euro Zone PMI May Final PMI Services: 47.2 v 47.5e; PMI Composite 47.7 v 47.7e

- (CZ) Czech Q1 Current Account: +656.4M v -71.5Me
- (BR) Brazil May FIPE CPI monthly: 0.1% v 0.2%e
- (TW) Taiwan May Foreign Exchange Reserves: $406.6B v $405.2B prior
- (UK) May PMI Services: 54.9 v 53.1e; highest since Mar 2012
- (PT) Portugal Q1 Final GDP Q/Q: -0.4% v -0.3%e; Y/Y: -4.0% v -3.9%e
- (EU) Euro Zone Q1 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: -0.2% v -0.2%; Y/Y: -1.1% v -1.0%e
- (EU) Euro Zone Q1 Preliminary Household Consumption Q/Q: +0.1% v -0.6% prior; Gross Fix Capital Q/Q: -1.6% v -1.4% prior; Govt Expenditures Q/Q: -0.1% v 0.0% prior
- (EU) Euro Zone Apr Retail Sales M/M: -0.5% v -0.2%e; Y/Y: -1.1% v -0.8%e

Fixed Income:
- (EU) ECB allotted $0.0M in 7-Day USD Liquidity Tender at fixed 0.60% vs. $0.0M prior
- (DE) Germany sold 3.354B in 0.25% Apr 2018 BOBL; Avg Yield: 0.54% v 0.38% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.0x v 2.1x prior

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***

***Equities***
FTSE 100 -0.70% at 6,512,
DAX -0.30% at 8,270, CAC-40 -0.50% at 3,904, IBEX-35 +0.50% at 8,405, FTSE MIB +0.50% at 17,217, SMI -0.10% at 7,864, S&P 500 Futures 1,627

- European equity markets are trading mixed, after Japan's Nikkei225 ended lower by over 3.8%. Spain's IBEX-35 has outperformed, supported by better than expected PMI services data. The FTSE 100 has underperformed, amid weakness in resource related companies, Tesco and RBS. European banks are mostly lower, although Spanish financials have outperformed. Looking ahead, traders are expected to focus on data points out of the US which include the monthly ADP employment report and ISM non-manufacturing index.

- UK movers [Findel +8% (FY profits rose y/y), MoneySupermarket.com +3% (special dividend); Man Group -10% (broker commentary),Tesco -3% (Q1 sales below ests), DS Smith -1.5% (broker commentary)]
- Germany movers [ThyssenKrupp +2% (speculation related to Brazil steel plant)]
- France movers [Carrefour -4% (broker commentary),Rallye -3% (broker commentary)]
- Austria movers [Voestalpine +4% (FY profits above ests)]

Speakers:
- Russia Central Bank Gov Ignatiev commented that Russian inflation to slow in H2 and it might cut or hold interest rates.
He noted that low unemployment showed no need to cut interest rates and that demographic factors were partly to blame for economic slowdown
- Hungary Econ Min Varga commented that the Govt was still analyzing whether to sell Fx bond this year and was continuously monitoring bond market condition. He noted that its assessment had improved in recent weeks. He also believed the 2013 GDP growth estimate of 0.7% was conservative and realistic. Govt might sell convertible bonds in companies that the State had ownership in
- IMF to analyze budget of Spanish regions during its annual review of the country. IMF officials to visit Andalusia, Valencia and Catalonia govt
- ECB's Draghi appointed Chair of Supervision group at Bank of International Settlements (BIS); effective July 1st for a three year term. Mexico Central Bank Gov Carstens named Chairman of Economic Consultative Committee and Global Economy committee
- Turkish govt in Northern Cyprus failed to survive no confidence vote
- Japan Econ Min Amari commented after PM Abe's 3rd arrow speech that it would stay with the fiscal consolidation plan and halve its primary balance deficit by FY15 and achieve a primary budget surplus by FY20. He reiterated the govt aim for 2% real and 3% nominal GDP growth in next 10 years. Lastly he added that it could hike sales tax if current economic trends continued
- Japan Chief Cabinet Sec Suga reiterated equities were in correction phase and improving economy as Japan was on its way to recovery. He also reiterated of not commenting on daily market movements (Nikkei was off almost 4% today). Govt would continue to closely watch markets and did not believe PM Abe's third arrow speech fell short of expectations
- Growth Strategy draft noted that Japan govt would seek expert views on whether public funds should seek higher returns via stock investments (**Reminder: Abe Govt said to be planning to council Japan's national pension funds (GPIF) to move money into alternatives investments)
- India Central Bank Gov Subbarao commented that the global economy still faced the crisis of 2008. RBI was working towards guaranteed settlement of USD/INR trade
- China PBoC report noted that it observed good conditions to launch deposit insurance. It noted that banks must strengthen their control of off-balance sheet risks and increase flexibility of the Yuan exchange rate. Local govts needed to have a contingency plan for financial risk

Currencies/Fixed Income:
- Overall dealers seemed to have no appetite to force a break of the recent range

- The JPY currency gave back a good portion of its gains from late Asia. Overall dealers initially expressed disappointment in PM Abe's third-arrow speech. The measures would not have an immediate impact and there was no mention of changes to the national pension fund, which had been widely anticipated. The USD/JPY pair slumped 100 pips as the speech unfolded and the Nikkei erased 2% gains to close off 3.8% just above 13K (lost over 500 points in the session). The USD/JPY pair inched up as the NY morning approached to edge back towards parity and seemed to be aided by growth strategy draft in which Japan govt sought expert views on whether public funds should seek higher returns via stock investments
- The EUR/USD was little changed as dealers looked ahead to Thursday ECB meeting. Again dealers noted that the ECB decision and press conference might provide a more opportunistic vantage to short the currency in to Draghi's press conference on Thursday. Dealers were eyeing that upper end of the 2013 consolidation zone at 1.3170 area
- The GBP benefitted from a stronger PMI Services data for May. GBP/USD tested 1.5370 after the index registered its best reading since March of 2012
- The EUR/SEK moved higher following disappointing Swedish PMI Services data. The cross tested near 8.62 following the data but later consolidated its gains. It was just under 8.60 ahead of the NY morning.

Political/In the Papers:
- (EU) ECB members said to be divided on further refi rate cuts; concerned monetary policy efforts are not being matched by equal Govt reform efforts - financial press; Public discussion of negative rates was a means of showing the ECB still has firepower; Some members believe that narrowing the corridor could be a better strategy on rate cuts.
- IMF Chief Lagarde: Global economy could be entering a "softer patch." Momentum in some emerging markets is appears to be falling off.
- (EU) EU Commission confirmed earlier reports on China solar duties, to begin 11% duties on June 6th, to be in place for six months; Duties to rise to 47.6% in August.
- (EU) European Stability Mechanism (ESM) pledges maximum 70B to recapitalize banking sector - German press
- (PT) Bank of Portugal: Support could be needed for emergencies following the Troika program conclusion
- (PT) Portugal Sec of State for Finance Rodrigues: Not expecting to need any more aid programs or bank recaps; Largest concern in Portugal is unemployment levels, country is regaining market access and as a result will be eligible for the OMT
- (ES) Spain PM Rajoy: Will look into European Commission recommendations regarding VAT but will not raise the overall rate- El Pais
- German ZEW's Fuest believed the ECB was acting outside of its mandate as the ECB had no place to guarantee unlimited state debt

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (EU) NATO Defense Ministers meet in Brussels
- (PL) Poland Central Bank (NBP) Interest Rate Decision: Expected to cut Base Rate by 25bps to 2.75%
- 06:00 (EU) EU rules on latria eligibility to adopt Euro
- 06:30 (US) Daily Libor Fixings
- 07:00 (UK) Prime Minister's Question Time in House of Commons
- 07:00 (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e May 31st" No est v -8.8% prior
- 08:00 (DE) German Fin Fin Schaeuble in Berlin
- 08:15 (US) May ADP Employment Change: +165Ke v +119K prior
- 08:30 (ES) Spain PM Rajoy with EU's Barroso in Brussels
- 08:30 (US) Q1 Final Nonfarm Productivity: 0.7%e v 0.7% prelim; Unit Labor Costs: 0.5%e v 0.5% prelim
- 08:30 (CA) Canada Apr Building Permits M/M: -2.3%e v -8.6% prior
- 08:30 (CL) Chile Apr Economic Activity M/M: 0.2%e v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: 5.0%e v 3.1% prior
- 09:00 (BR) Brazil May PMI Services: No est v 51.3 prior
- 09:00 (BE) Belgium Q1 Final GDP Q/Q: No est v 0.1% prelim; Y/Y: No est v -0.5% prelim
- 09:00 (MX) Mexico Apr Leading Indicators M/M: No est v 0.1 prior
- 10:00 (US) Apr Factory Orders: +1.5%e v -4.0% prior
- 10:00 Durable goods revision
- 10:00 (US) May ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite: 53.5e v 53.1 prior
- 10:30 (US) Weekly DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories
- 12:00 (DE) German Bundesrat (upper house) Mediation Committe convenes on Fiscal Compact bill
- 12:00 (DE) Germany Fin Min Schaeuble discusses Europe With Youths in Berlin

 

 

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Tue 21 Nov
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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias


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