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Wednesday June 5, 2013 - 15:40:48 GMT
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| | Email US Market Update: Third Arrow and May ADP Report Heighten Market Tensions US Market Update: Third Arrow and May ADP Report Heighten Market Tensions
Wed, 05 Jun 2013 11:23 AM EST

***Economic Data***
- (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e May 31st: -11.5% v -8.8% prior
- (PL) Poland Central Bank (NBP) cut Base Rate by 25bps to 2.75%, as expected
- (US) May ADP Employment Change: +135K v +165Ke
- (US) Q1 Final Nonfarm Productivity: 0.5% v 0.6%e; Unit Labor Costs: -4.3% v +0.5%e
- (CA) Canada Apr Building Permits M/M: +10.5% v -3.0%e
- (CL) Chile Apr Economic Activity M/M: 0.2% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 4.4% v 5.0%e
- (BE) Belgium Q1 Final GDP Q/Q: 0.0 v 0.1% prelim; Y/Y: -0.6 v -0.5% prelim
- (BR) Brazil May PMI Services: 51.0 v 51.3 prior
- (MX) Mexico Apr Leading Indicators M/M: 0.0 v 0.0 prior
- (US) Apr Factory Orders: +1.0% v +1.5%e
- (US) May ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite: 53.7 v 53.5e
- (US) Weekly DOE Inventories: Crude: -6.27M v -500Ke; Gasoline: -370K v +500Ke; Distillate: +2.61M v +1Me; Utilization: 88.4% v 86.9%e

- The Nikkei saw another big slide overnight on disappointment with Japan PM Abe's 'third arrow' policy speech. European indices shrugged off the slide at first, but the weak euro zone April retail sales data helped trigger a selloff after 05:00ET. US futures struggled to get out of the red in the premarket under pressure from the ADP data and jitters about Friday's May jobs report. As of writing, the DJIA is down %, the S&P500 off % and the Nasdaq is down %.

- The May ADP survey came in at 135K, higher than April's revised total of 113K but much lower than the gains ADP reported over the winter. In November through February, the survey averaged 200K a month. Recall that the April ADP reading did not predict the April non-farm payrolls report of +165K very well at all, although in March the two reports were much more in line with each other. Current consensus estimates for Friday's May non-farm payrolls report are for a 167K gain.

- The May ISM services data met expectations although the continuing expansion is not exactly exuberant. Markets moreover are accentuating the negative in the report: the employment component shrank to 50.1, barely above contraction, from 52 prior, its lowest level since last summer. New orders were very robust.

- The wining continues in the China/EU solar spat, red wine that is. China said it would explore imposing tariffs on wine from Europe in response to duties imposed on solar panels. The German government came out once again to condemn the EU tariff stance, demanding that negotiations begin to stave off a trade war.

- Shares of Hovnanian are up nearly 5% in the early going after another decent quarterly report. The firm defied expectations of a loss in the quarter and topped revenue targets. The CEO said that the company has been able to raise home prices in many of communities, which has more than offset any increases in labor or material costs seen to date.

- The Treasury said it would accelerate the sale of its remaining 30 million share stake in General Motors. It will sell the shares in a public offering in conjunction with GM's inclusion to the S&P500 on Thursday, June 6th. In addition, the UAW pension said it would sell 20M shares of GM stock it holds at the same time.

***Looking Ahead***
- 12:00 (DE) German Bundesrat (upper house) Mediation Committe convenes on Fiscal Compact bill
- 12:00 (DE) Germany Fin Min Schaeuble discusses Europe With Youths in Berlin




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