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TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: US May Non-Farm Payroll Report hyped as the most important in years

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: US May Non-Farm Payroll Report hyped as the most important in years

Fri, 07 Jun 2013 5:35 AM EST

***Notes/Observations***
- Volatility continues in Japanese market. Japan Fin Min Aso stated that would not intervene in fx market immediately; The BOJ meets next Monday and Tuesday
- Japan announces midterm plan changes to public pension fund (GPIF) to diversify its holdings away from domestic bonds; raised target allocation of Domestic Stocks to 12% from 11%; foreign stocks allocation raised to 12% from 9% prior; foreign bond allocation raised to 11% from 8% prior
- GPIF pension Fund stated that new portfolio targets were close to the actual portfolio balance at the end of 2012
- Both Germany and Austria trim 2013 and 2014 GDP growth outlook
- US May Non-Farm Payroll Report is being touted as the most important in years as it might give insight to pace of any potential FED tapering of QE


***Economic Data***
- (RU) Russia Narrow Money Supply w/e (RUB): 7.69T prior
- (MA) Malaysia Apr Trade Balance (MYR): 0.9B v 5.2Be; Exports Y/Y: -3.3% v +0.4%e; Imports Y/Y: 9.2% v 4.4%
- (JP) Japan Apr Preliminary Leading Index CI: 99.3 v 98.8e; Coincident Index CI: 94.8 v 94.9e
- (DE) Germany Apr Current Account: 17.6B v 13.0Be; Trade Balance: 18.1B v 17.0Be; Imports M/M: 2.3% v 0.5%e; Exports M/M: 1.9% v 0.1%e
- (DE) Germany Q1 Labor Costs Q/Q: 1.1% v 0.9% prior; Y/Y: 3.9% v 3.1% prior
- (ZA) South Africa May Gross Reserves: $48.2B v $49.7Be; Net Reserves: $45.2B v $45.8B prior
- (FI) Finland Apr Preliminary Trade Balance: -35M v -250M prior
- (AU) Australia May Foreign Reserves: A$51.7B v A$49.8B prior
- (PH) Philippines May Foreign Reserves: $82.9B v $83.4B prior
- (FR) France Apr Trade Balance: -4.5B v -4.5Be
- (FR) France Apr Central Govt. Balance: -66.8B v -31.0B prior
- (HU) Hungary May Foreign Currency Reserves: 35.3B v 35.9B prior
- (CH) Swiss May Foreign Currency Reserves (CHF): 441.4B v 440.5Be
- (ES) Spain Apr Industrial Output WDA Y/Y: -1.8% v -2.6%e; Industrial Output NSA Y/Y: +7.3% v -10.0% prior
- (HU) Hungary Apr Preliminary Trade Balance: 700.5M v 523.0Me
- (HU) Hungary Apr Preliminary Industrial Production M/M: 1.2% v 0.4% prior; Y/Y: 2.9% v 1.4%e
- (CZ) Czech Apr Industrial Output Y/Y: 0.5% v 0.6%e; Construction Output Y/Y: -11.4% v -22.3% prior
- (DK) Denmark Apr Industrial Production M/M: 0.8% v 0.0% prior
- (EU) ECB 1.0B borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 23M prior; 86.9B parked in deposit facility vs. 89.6B prior
- (AT) Austria May Wholesale Price Index M/M: +0.3% v -0.4% prior; Y/Y: -0.6% v -1.6% prior
- (NL) Netherlands Apr Industrial Production M/M: 0.6% v 0.8%e; Y/Y: -1.9% v -2.0%e; Industrial Sales Y/Y: % v -6.5% prior
- (TW) Taiwan May Total Trade Balance: $2.6Be v $2.3B prior; Total Exports Y/Y: -0.8%e v -1.9% prior; Total Imports Y/Y: -2.2%e v -8.2% prior
- (CZ) Czech May International Reserves: $43.6B v $44.7B prior
- (NO) Norway Apr Industrial Production M/M: 5.4 v 1.0% prior; Y/Y: -5.3 v -8.6% prior
- (NO) Norway Apr Manufacturing Production M/M: 2.6% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 6.1% v 3.2% prior
- (UK) Apr Visible Trade Balance: -8.2B v -8.8Be; Total Trade Balance: -2.6B v -3.0Be; Trade Balance Non EU: -3.4B v -3.7Be
- (UK) May BoE/GfK Inflation Next 12 Months: 3.6% v 3.6% prior
- (IS) Iceland Q1 GDP Q/Q: 0.8% v 0.5% prior; Y/Y: 4.6% v 1.4% prior
- (HK) Hong Kong May Foreign Currency Reserves: $305.7B v $306.5B prior
- (SG) Singapore May Foreign Reserves: $258.4B v $261.6B prior
- (CY) Cyprus Q1 Final GDP Q/Q: % v -1.3% prior; Y/Y: -4.4% v -4.3% prior
- (GR) Greece Q1 Final GDP Y/Y: -5.6% v -5.3%e

Fixed Income:
- (IN) India sold total INR140B vs. combined INR140B indicated in 2020, 2026, 2032 and 2042 bonds

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***

***Equities***
FTSE 100 flat at 6,335,
DAX -0.10% at 8,091, CAC-40 +0.10% at 3,817, IBEX-35 flat at 8,214, FTSE MIB +0.20% at 16,565, SMI +0.10% at 7,631, S&P 500 Futures -0.10% at 1,621

- Equity markets in Europe are mostly near flat levels, as traders await the US monthly payrolls data. Also, data to be released out of China over the weekend is expected to be in focus. Following the prior session's losses, European banks are trading mixed. Spanish financials have underperformed, while outperformers include Credit Agricole and RBS. Resource related firms are mostly higher, tracking the gains in copper prices.

- UK movers [Kcom Group +10% (raised dividend), BT +2% (broker commentary), Glencore Xstrata +2% (broker commentary); Sthree -4% (H1 profit declined y/y), Aberdeen Asset Management -1% (broker commentary)]
- Germany movers [Gagfah +1.5% (broker commentary), Deutsche Telecom +1% (broker commentary), Bayer +0.50% (broker commentary); MLP -7% (ex-dividend), Patrizia -3.5% (broker commentary), Hochtief -3.5% (broker commentary), Qiagen -3% (lost order)]
- France movers [Scor +2% (broker commentary), Ipsen +2% (broker commentary)]
- The Netherlands movers [KPN +4% (broker commentary)]
- Italy movers [Risanamento +5% (takeover speculation)]

Speakers:
- German Bundesbank cut its 2013 and 2014 GDP growth forecasts citing weaker exports
. It now saw 2013 GDP at +0.3% from +0.4% Dec view and 2014 GDP at 1.5% from 1.9% Dec view. It noted that Q2 GDP growth would likely to be quite strong then ease markedly
- Austria Central Bank cuts Austria 2013 and 2014 GDP forecasts citing weaker exports. It now saw 2013 GDP forecast at +0.3% from +0.5% prior and 2014 GDP forecast at +1.5% from +1.7% prior
- ECB's Nowotny stated Austria's economic weakness was due to lack of domestic demand and underestimated downturn in Euro Area. The region was a weak spot for global economy. Core European countries were losing momentum and hopes to hit tough by mid-2013. He reiterated ECB view that whole range of unconventional measures were being discussed but would not commit to one specific tool at this time. Must carefully consider side effects of more measures. Lastly he added that ECB might NOT do more if the economy improved in H2
- ECB's Liikanen (Finland) reiterated view that a single bank supervisor was needed and that the bank recovery mechanism was critical.
- EU's Rehn reiterated that reforms must be pursued with determination and do whatever was needed to overcome the unemployment crisis. He also reiterated the view that another Greek debt restructuring was not on the agenda
- EU Commission spokesperson commented that EU state aid regulators would not require depositors or senior debtholders to take a loss on bank restructuring. Bank shareholders and Junior creditors to take full losses during a regulated bank restructuring
- German Chancellor Merkel commented that she saw severe weakness in the architecture of the EMU and reiterated it could not fight euro crisis with economic stimulus measures. No interest in raising any taxes in Germany and needed to bring order to the European banking system. Interest rate could rise again when structural reforms work and trust has been restored
- Sweden Central Bank (Riksbank) Jansson commented that it would be hard to decide on rates in July. Central bank had not exaggerated its inflation combating.
- China International Capital Corporation (CICC) general manager Gao Xiqing: CIC overseas investment return approx 11% in 2012
- China PBoC financial stability report reiterated sovereign debt crisis was still risk to global economy; reiterates to pursue prudent monetary policy
- Japan Health Ministry commented on Japanese pension plan in which it would reduce target allocation of domestic bonds to 60% from 67% prior. In return it raised target allocation of Domestic Stocks to 12% from 11% and raise target allocation of foreign bonds to 11% from 8% prior and raise target allocation of foreign stocks to 12% from 9% prior. Latly it maintained target allocation of short-term assets at 5%. These changes were effective immediately
- The GPIF pension Fund stated that new portfolio targets were close to the actual portfolio balance at the end of 2012
- South Korea to discuss the reopening of Kaeseong with North Korea

Currencies/Fixed Income:
- JPY remained volatile in early Europe. In Asia The JPY retracement from trend lows took a 'no prisoner' alive theme as yen shorts were flushed out in the currency's largest one-day climb in three years. The USD/JPT tested 95.55 after Japan Fin Min Aso stated that would not intervene in fx market immediately. Just before the Nikkei225 close Japan Health Ministry announced it would discussed midterm plan changes that will allow its public pension fund (GPIF) to diversify its holdings away from bonds. It then noted that Japan would allow GPIF to raise target allocation of Domestic Stocks to 12% from 11%; foreign stocks allocation raised to 12% from 9% prior; foreign bond allocation raised to 11% from 8% prior. However, dealers noted that the new portfolio targets were close to the actual portfolio balance at the end of 2012. The USD/JPY pair just above the 96.00 level ahead of the NY morning.
- The EUR/USD remained above the 1.32 handle ahead of the US payroll report. Dealers noted that a weaker-than-expected May ADP payroll number earlier in the week, combined with a fall in the employment component of the non-manufacturing ISM had both increased the risk that today's payroll number could disappoint market expectations. The data release was touted as the most important in years by the financial media as it might give insight to pace of any potential FED tapering of QE. The 1.3170 remained the key level to watch in terms of post data action.

Political/In the Papers:
- (EU) ECB's Draghi: Board discussed negative deposit rates, ECB is technically prepared for negative deposit rates, sees no reason to act on these measures presently; Fully discussed incoming data, some has been better while other data has not been as good, by in large there was no directional change that would justify taking action at this time; Does not see any sharp deflation taking place.
-(EU) ECB Staff Projections: Trims 2013 GDP outlook to -0.6% from prior range of -0.9% to -0.1%; Amends 2013 inflation forecast to 1.4% from prior range 1.2-2.0%
- (DE) Berenberg said there is risk that Germany's constitutional court could issue an "awkward" verdict on the OMT - Telegraph's Ambrose Evans-Pritchard: According to Berenberg, it cannot be ruled out that the court could decide to attach conditions to the participation of the Bundesbank in ECB actions, which would significantly limit the ECB's firepower. **Reminder: German Court hearing on ESM bailout scheduled for Jun 11-12th and to include examining ECB's program to possible buy govt bonds (OMT)
- (GR) Germany is said to have rejected another debt reduction for Greece - Handelsblatt
-(GR) Finland PM Katainen: restructuring Greek debt is NOT on the table - joint Finnish-Greek press conference; Once Greece restores a primary surplus the Eurogroup will revisit the potential for debt relief.
- (GR) IMF's Rice: Greek reforms have made very good progress, there will not need to be any further debt relief negotiations with Greece
- (IT) Italy Dep Fin Min Casero: Not expecting bond yields to rise significantly, hoping to avoid a VAT increase by finding other resources
- (IT) Italy to review the constitutional articles on the structure of its Govt - press
- (US) Fed's Plosser: dialing back QE3 is clearly on the table at future FOMC meetings; FOMC should scale back the QE3 program to $65-75B/month and gradually get out of the mortgage market - comments to reporters; Markets may have overreacted to the possibility of the FOMC winding down QE3; Fed should never make policy decisions based on market reaction.
- (US) Fed's Bullard (moderate, FOMC voter): Low inflation trumps financial stability in making monetary policy; Tapering amounts should be small and subject to reversal

**Looking Ahead***
- All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (US) President Obama with China President Xi in California
- G20 Finance Ministers and central bank dep gov meeting in St. Petersburg
- (RU) Russia May Official Reserve Assets: $510.3Be v $533.2B prior
- 06:00 (DE) Germany Apr Industrial Production M/M: 0.0%e v 1.2% prior; Y/Y: -0.7%e v -2.5% prior
- 06:00 (PT) Portugal Apr Trade Balance: no est v -573M prior
- 06:00 (EU) ECB announces 3-Year LTRO Repayment
- 06:10 (UK) DMO to sell 2.5B in 1-month, 3-month and 6-month Bills
- 07:15 (DE) German Chancellor Merkel with Tunisia PM Laarayedh
- 07:30 (IN) India Forex Reserves w/e May 31st: No est v $292.1B prior
- 08:00 (PL) Poland May Official Total Reserves: No est v 109.1B prior
- 08:00 (CL) Chile May CPI M/M: 0.1%e v -0.5% prior; Y/Y: 1.1%e v 1.0% prior; CPI Ex Perishables & Fuel M/M: 0.1%e v -0.3% prior
- 08:00 (BR) Brazil May IBGE Inflation IPCA M/M: 0.4%e v 0.6% prior; Y/Y: 6.5%e v 6.5% prior
- 08:30 (US) May Change in Nonfarm Payrolls: +165Ke v +165K prior; Change in Private Payrolls: +177Ke v +176K prior; Change in Manufacturing Payrolls: 4Ke v 0Kprior
- 08:30 (US) May Unemployment Rate: 7.5%e v 7.5% prior; Underemployment Rate: No est v 13.9% prior; Change in Household Employment: No est v 293K prior
- 08:30 (US) May Avg Hourly Earning M/M: 0.2%e v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: 2.1%e v 1.9% prior; Weekly Hours: 34.5e v 34.4 prior
- 08:30 (CA) Canada May Net Change in Employment: +15.0Ke v +12.5K prior; Unemployment Rate: 7.2%e v 7.2% prior; Full Time Employment Change: No est v 36K prior; Part Time Employment Change: No est v -23.6K prior; Participation Rate: No est v 66.5% prior
- 08:30 (CL) Chile May Trade Balance: $500Me v $447.0M prior; Total Exports: No est v $6.9B prior; Total Imports: No est v $6.5B prior
- 08:30 (CL) Chile May Copper Exports: No est v $3.5B prior
- 09:00 (MX) Mexico May Consumer Prices M/M: -0.3%e v +0.1% prior; Y/Y: 4.7%e v 4.7% prior; CPI Core M/M: 0.2%e v 0.1% prior
- 10:00 (MX) Mexico Central Bank Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave Overnight Rate unchanged at 4.0%
- 13:30 (DE) Germany Fin Min Schaeuble in Strasbourg
- 15:00 (US) Apr Consumer Credit: $13.3Be v $8.0B prior
- 21:30 (CN) China May Consumer Price Index Y/Y: No est v 2.4% prior
- 21:30 (CN) China May Producer Price Index Y/Y: No est v -2.6% prior

 

 

 

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias


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