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ECONOMIC DATA ANALYSIS - MARKET UNCERTAINTY RISES OVER GLOBAL MONETARY POLICY

ECONOMIC DATA ANALYSIS  FRIDAY 7 JUNE 2013

 

MARKET UNCERTAINTY RISES OVER GLOBAL MONETARY POLICY

• Financial market volatility focused on central bank policy uncertainty

• US to post more resilient figures as focus moves beyond manufacturing?

• UK labour market easing suggests productivity rise as recovery becomes more entrenched

 

Market volatility and policy uncertainty ...Today’s payrolls report added to financial market volatility. Uncertainty over global central bank policy has led to a sizable reversal in global bond markets. 10-year yields have risen by around 40bps in the US, UK and euro area since the start of May. Equities have also weakened, with the US S&P down 3% from highs three weeks ago and the UK FTSE down 7½%. Our risk appetite index, covering a range of global assets, slumped 60% illustrating rising financial market uncertainty since Fed Chairman Bernanke’s testimony and growing fears of the Fed tapering QE. Yesterday’s

ECB conference added to the uncertainty.

 

US’s non-manufacturing resilience.?... Today’s payrolls dispelled some of the worst fears for the US economy, in turn influenced by weak news from a range of manufacturing-focused survey evidence. The coming week should show that beyond manufacturing, the economy is resilient. May’s retail sales look likely to rise, even allowing for the gasoline price effect, and consumer confidence is forecast to remain around May’s post-financial crisis high. Households are showing little adverse reaction to fiscal tightening so far this year. We forecast consumption growth of 2% in Q2, underpinning our 1.7% GDP forecast. This resilience should keep the tapering debate live.

 

China’s monthly evidence ... The Chinese economy appears to be showing signs of slowing as the authorities use macroprudential tools to restrain lending. The coming week’s numbers may surprise to the upside, but will mask ongoing

adjustment. May’s yuan lending is expected to remain solid (RMB 800bn), but growth is slowing. Industrial production looks set to accelerate to 9.5% (from 9.2%), but we attribute this to a base effect. Annual retail sales growth will likely edge lower and although this should buoy the trade balance, this is likely to reflect softer imports. If this trend continues we would be minded to see

annual GDP growth closer to 7½% this year.

 

BoJ steady for now ... The BoJ also meets in the coming week. However, having bolstered stimulus significantly in April, this meeting looks set to focus on technical operational issues. The policy debate in Japan has moved to the ‘third arrow’ of Abe’s stimulus - structural reform – after this week’s national growth strategy speech.

 

Domestic recovery more entrenched ... In the UK, further signs of improvement over the past week have raised expectations over the UK’s recovery prospects, including the rise in all three PMIs into expansionary territory. Yet similar to the US, services appears to be outperforming more externally-oriented manufacturing. The coming week’s industrial output for April may mirror this. Manufacturing output contracted in Q1 as a whole, and we look for a modest fall in April. However, domestic manufacturing appears more resilient than some global trends. We expect industrial production to boost Q2 GDP, but are wary of recent global softness restraining a more wholehearted recovery across H2.

 

Spare capacity to spur future policy? ... The UK also posts labour market updates. We expect the recent softening in the labour market to continue in the coming week. We look for another small fall in employment, the start of a process that is likely to bolster productivity growth gradually over the coming quarters. Yet spare capacity in the UK economy, particularly the labour market, remains high. With BoE Governor King having led his last MPC meeting this week, market focus now turns to the arrival of Mark Carney. There is a widespread expectation that he will initiate further stimulus to address this spare capacity, with our expectation for some form of forward policy guidance. Over the coming months MPC policy may add to financial mark

 

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 Whilst Lloyds TSB ank plc (“Lloyds TSB”) and Bank of Scotland plc ("Bank of Scotland") have exercised reasonable care in preparing this material and any views or information expressed or presented are based on sources it believes to be accurate and reliable, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of the facts and data contained herein.

 

This material has been prepared for information purposes only and Lloyds TSB, Bank of Scotland, their directors, officers and employees are not responsible for any consequences arising from any reliance upon such information. Under no circumstances should this material be treated as an offer or solicitation to offer, to buy or sell any product or enter into any transaction. If you receive information from us which is inconsistent with other information which you have received from us, you should refer this to your Lloyds TSB or Bank of Scotland Relationship Manager for clarification.

 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:


Mon 20 Nov
14:00 EZ- Draghi Speech
15:00 US- Leading Indicators
Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- FOMC Minutes
Thu 23 Nov
US/JP- Holiday
All Day flash PMIs
13:30 CA- Retail Sales
Fri 24 Nov
All Day flash PMIs
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
US- Early Closes

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Potential Trading Opportunities


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 13:30 GMT US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing Statistic

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 23:30 GMT US- Yellen Speech. Early evening. Looking for anything on policy


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 13:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:00 GMT US- final University of Michigan Survey
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:30 GMT US- EIA Crude
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release


John M. Bland, MBA
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