Friday July 22, 2005 - 01:16:09 GMT
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Forex: Daily Forecast for the Euro vs U.S. Dollar 22nd July 2005
Price: 1.2165
Resistance: 1.2185 ... 1.2220 ... 1.2255 ... 1.2283
Support....: 1.2154 ... 1.2120 ... 1.2097 ... 1.2065
Bias: Mixed - waiting for breaks - probably range trading
Bullish: A peak seen at 1.2250 and this does tend to imply a more bullish underlying pattern. However, we do not want to get too bullish too quickly with the risk of a sideways movement quite possible today. There is resistance at 1.2215-20 that needs to be overcome to reach back to the 1.2250-55 peaks. Resistance is also seen at 1.2283-86 and only above this area would keep the upward momentum intact and cause follow-through to 1.2342 at least and we suspect 1.2377.
Bearish: The pullback from the 1.2250 high stalled at 1.2097 and we feel that may well be the limit of the downside. To see a more bearish tone today we would require a break back below 1.2120 and if seen would then pressure the 1.2097 low and probably cause follow-through to 1.2065 but feel this should hold. Next support is at 1.2022 & 1.1995.
Elliott Wave Comments:
22nd July 2005
We consider the rally to 1.2250 from 1.1951 occurred in five waves. Thus we now count the 1.1951 low as Wave x, the rally to 1.2250 as a new Wave a and thus we are seeing Wave b. It is possible this completed at 1.2097 but we feel this Wave b correction could be quite complex. However, once we see a break higher we'll be looking for a test of the 1.2460 pivot resistance and the 1.2480-90 area which is where daily Wave (iv) will have retraced 38.2% of Wave (iii) lower.
(c) FX-Strategy Inc 2005
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