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Friday June 7, 2013 - 15:41:34 GMT
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| | Email US Market Update: May Payrolls Surprise to the Upside, Spurring Tons of Taper Talk US Market Update: May Payrolls Surprise to the Upside, Spurring Tons of Taper Talk
Fri, 07 Jun 2013 11:18 AM EST

***Economic Data***
- (RU) Russia May Official Reserve Assets: $518.4B v $510.3Be
- (DE) Germany Apr Industrial Production M/M: 1.8% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: +1.0% v -0.7%e
- (PT) Portugal Apr Trade Balance: -684M v -602M prior
- (IN) India Forex Reserves w/e May 31st: $287.9B v $292.1B prior
- (PL) Poland May Official Total Reserves: 110.2B v 109.1B prior
- (CL) Chile May CPI M/M: 0.0% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 0.9% v 1.1%e; CPI Ex Perishables & Fuel M/M: 0.1% v 0.1%e
- (BR) Brazil May IBGE Inflation IPCA M/M: 0.4% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 6.5% v 6.5%e
- (US) May Change in Nonfarm Payrolls: +175K v +163Ke; Change in Private Payrolls: +178K v +175Ke; Change in Manufacturing Payrolls: -8K v +4Ke
- (US) May Unemployment Rate: 7.6% v 7.5%e; Underemployment Rate: 13.8% v 13.9% prior; Change in Household Employment: +319K v 293K prior
- (US) May Avg Hourly Earning M/M: 0.0% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 2.0% v 2.1%e; Weekly Hours: 34.5 v 34.5e
- (CA) Canada May Net Change in Employment: +95.0K v +15.0Ke; Unemployment Rate: 7.1% v 7.2%e; Full Time Employment Change: +76.2K v 36K prior; Part Time Employment Change: +18.2K v -23.6K prior; Participation Rate: 66.7% v 66.5%e
- (CL) Chile May Trade Balance: $1.4B v $500Me; Total Exports: $8.0B v $6.9B prior; Total Imports: $6.6B v $6.5B prior
- (CL) Chile May Copper Exports: $4.4B v $3.5B prior
- (MX) Mexico May Consumer Prices M/M: -0.3% v -0.3%e; Y/Y: 4.6% v 4.7%e; CPI Core M/M: 0.2% v 0.2%e
- (MX) Mexico Central Bank (Banxico) leaves Overnight Rate unchanged at 4.00%, as expected

- European and US equity indices are solid gains this morning in the wake of the better-than-expected May US jobs report. The Euro Stoxx is up nearly 2%, while the DJIA is up +1.2%, the S&P500 is up 0.9% and the Nasdaq is up 0.9%.

- The May jobs report defied predictions of disaster with a non-farm payrolls number of +175K that was better than expected and much better than Wednesday's ADP figure (April's NFP was +149K). However several other components were weaker than expected: the three-month MA for the NFP ticked down to +155K from +208K prior. The average was +237K in the final quarter of 2012. The unemployment rate rose a tenth of a percentage point to 7.6%, driven by an increase in the labor force (which is itself a hopeful sign).

- FX trading was choppy before and after the jobs numbers. The yen strengthened further heading into the report after yesterday's monster move, and after the data USD/JPY briefly kissed 95 for the first time since early April. The euro was steady overnight, with EUR/USD pivoting around 1.3250. After the jobs data, the pair tested 1.3200.

- Data storage firms Equinix and Iron Mountain are both down sharply after the IRS convened an internal working group to study REIT conversions. Both firms have applied for REIT status and the IRS's conclusions on what does and does not constitute "real estate" will determine whether the firms will be allowed to convert (and reap significant tax savings). Equinix has a better case than Iron Mountain's document storage business, as many of its data center competitors have successfully converted to REITs. EQIX down 6.5% IRM is down 18%, its biggest one-day drop since going public in 1996.

- Shares of Pandora are down slightly after reports made the rounds that Apple has secured a deal with Sony for its forthcoming iRadio streaming music product. The reports suggested that Apple already had buy-in from BMG and Warner Music. Apple is due to launch the new product along with the preview of iOS 7.0 at the WWDC developers conference on Monday. Pandora has been helped by another very good monthly metrics report out this morning, with active listeners up 33% y/y.

- Apparel name Quicksilver is down 12% or so after reporting a steep loss in its Q2 and widely missing revenue expectations. The firm predicted improvement in the second half of the year. Meanwhile recreational vehicles name Thor Industries is up 11% on solid Q4 figures, including 48% y/y growth in RV sales.

***Looking Ahead***
- (US) President Obama with China President Xi in California
- G20 Finance Ministers and central bank dep gov meeting in St. Petersburg
- 13:30 (DE) Germany Fin Min Schaeuble in Strasbourg
- 15:00 (US) Apr Consumer Credit: $12.9Be v $8.0B prior




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