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Monday June 10, 2013 - 06:00:53 GMT
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| | Email Asian Market Update: China May data disappoints, sending AUD and Copper down 1%; Japan Final Q1 GDP revised higher - Source

**Economic Data*** - (CN) CHINA MAY INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION Y/Y: 9.2% V 9.4%E - (CN) CHINA MAY RETAIL SALES Y/Y: 12.9% V 12.9%E (4-MONTH HIGH) - (CN) CHINA MAY NEW YUAN LOANS (CNY): 667.4B V 850BE (3-month low) - (CN) CHINA MAY URBAN FIXED ASSETS INVESTMENT YTD Y/Y: 20.4% V 20.6%E (8-MONTH LOW) - (CN) CHINA MAY CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (CPI) Y/Y: 2.1% V 2.5%E (matches 4-month low); M/M: -0.6% v +0.2% prior - (CN) CHINA MAY PRODUCER PRICE INDEX (PPI) Y/Y: -2.9% V -2.5%E (8-month low and 15th consecutive month of y/y contraction) - (CN) CHINA MAY TRADE BALANCE: $20.4B V $20BE - (JP) JAPAN Q1 FINAL GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP) Q/Q: 1.0% V 0.9%E; ANNUALIZED: 4.1% V 3.5%E; NOMINAL GDP Q/Q: 0.6% V 0.4%E; GDP DEFLATOR Y/Y: -1.1% V -1.2%E - (JP) JAPAN APR CURRENT ACCOUNT TOTAL: 750.0B V 350.0BE (3rd straight surplus); ADJUSTED CURRENT ACCOUNT TOTAL: 852.7B V 380.0BE (14-month high) - (JP) JAPAN APR TRADE BALANCE - BOP BASIS: -818.8B V -739.9BE - (JP) JAPAN MAY BANK LENDING EX-TRUSTS Y/Y: 2.1% V 2.2%E; BANK LENDING INCL TRUSTS Y/Y: 1.8% V 1.8%E (45-month high) - (NZ) NEW ZEALAND MAY QV HOUSE PRICES Y/Y: 7.1% V 7.1% PRIOR - (NZ) NEW ZEALAND Q1 MANUFACTURING ACTIVITY VOLUME Q/Q: -0.6% V +1.4% PRIOR; MANUFACTURING ACTIVITY Q/Q: +0.2% V -0.1% PRIOR - (NZ) New Zealand May Card Spending Volume y/y: 5.8% v 6.2% prior - Paymark ***Markets Snapshot (as of 03:30 GMT)*** - Nikkei225 +3.0% - S&P/ASX closed - Kospi +0.4% - Shanghai Composite closed - Hang Seng +0.7% - Jun S&P500 +0.2% at 1,641 - Aug gold +0.2% at $1,385/oz - Jul crude oil +0.2% at $96.17/brl ***Observations/Insights*** - Asian equity markets are generally positive in the opening trading session of the week, tracking a broad based rally in the US on Friday after a "goldilocks" non-farm payrolls report - sufficiently strong enough to beat estimates yet not nearly as impressive so as to spook traders concerned about the Fed taper. Investors flocked to equities at the expense of the treasuries, sending the yields on the 10- and 30-yr up by as much as 15bps in a move closely tracked by the USD/JPY pair. Stabilization in the Yen has in turn translated into a large opening gap higher in the Tokyo markets. Also helping matters, Japan's Q1 final GDP was revised even higher, with the losses in the CAPEX component turning in a smaller than previously reported decline. Ahead of tomorrow's BOJ policy decision, financial press speculated the central bank may announce fresh steps to curb volatility in the JGB market this week, potentially extending the duration of its fixed-rate lending from one-year to two years. - A set of economic data out of China was largely a disappointment, with trade and industrial production metrics for the month of May painting a particularly sobering picture of a modest Chinese recovery. While trade balance matched expectations, annual exports growth was just 1% on the year - a 10-month low and well below the 14.7% increase last month. Exports and imports to the US both fell for the first time since 2009, while imports registered an unexpected contraction. Likewise, industrial production saw a sub-5% increase in the closely monitored electricity output component, while the bank lending print hit a 3-month low at CNY667B new loans. Shanghai Composite will be closed for the first 3 trading sessions of the week, however a number of analysts have already lowered their China GDP forecasts following the data. Economists are also on the lookout for a PBoC easing, given the lower than expected inflation figures (4-month low CPI at 2.1%) and the apparent reluctance to undertake a large fiscal stimulus. AUD/USD opened down over 80pips following the data, trading below the $0.94 handle before coming off the lows later in the day. ***Fixed Income/Commodities*** - (KR) South Korea MOF sells 5-yr govt bond, avg yield 2.97% - JPY/KRW: (JP) Japan Chief Cabinet Sec Suga: Japan and South Korea to discuss whether to expand swap deal - (NZ) New Zealand Ministry for Industries: Sees dairy exports rising about 8% y/y through June 2014 - financial press - NZD/AUD: ANZ chief economist: New target range may be around A$0.80-85, but concerned it may be higher - NZ press - GLD: SPDR Gold Trust ETF daily holdings fall by 0.6 tons to 1,007.1 ton (lowest since 985.9 tons in Feb of 2009) - update as of June 7th ***Speakers/Political/In the Papers*** - (JP) Japan PM Abe: wants tax breaks on capital investment in growth plans - (JP) JPMorgan: Too soon for BOJ Gov Kuroda to announce additional policy easing since price outlook is improving - (JP) BOJ may announce fresh steps to curb volatility in the JGB market this week - financial press - (CN) Barclays lowers China 2013 GDP forecast to 7.4% from 7.9% prior - (CN) Standard Chartered fx strategist Minikin: China may widen Yuan trading band by end of Sept - (CN) JPMorgan: Maintaining China 2013 GDP forecast at 7.6% - (CN) RBS economist: China economic growth losing pace in May; May have to lower 2013 GDP target - financial press - (CN) JPMorgan economist Zhu Haibin: China economy expected to remain relatively weak in Q2 - financial press - (CN) ANZ economists lowering China 2013 GDP forecast to 7.6% from 7.8% after the May economic data; Reiterating calls for PBoC to lower key interest rates - financial press - (CN) China Association of Auto Manufacturers (CAAM): China May passenger vehicle sales +9% y/y to 1.4M units vs +13% in April - financial press - (KR) Korea Center for International Finance (KCIF): Survey of global investment banks still sees South Korea 2013 GDP at 2.8% - Korean press - (KR) S&P: Korean banks face structural challenges - (KR) South Korea Unification Ministry confirms talks with North Korea on June 12-13rd - (NZ) Widespread analyst expectations see RBNZ keeping rates on hold at 2.5% - NZ press - (NZ) New Zealand's Kiwibank lowering its 1-yr mortgage rate by 36bps to 4.89% amid fierce competition between banks - NZ press - (HK) Hong Kong Financial Secy Tsang: To issue CNY23B in sovereign bonds in Hong Kong for the fifth consecutive year - HK press - (PH) Survey finds Philippines Central Bank to maintain policy rate unchanged on Thursday - financial press - (TW) Taiwan Finance Ministry reported May debt per capita down NT$4000 m/m - Taiwanese press - (EU) ECB spokesperson denies OMT is limited to 524B as speculated in German press - financial press ***Equities*** - FCG.NZ: Reports May New Zealand milk supply -31.9% season/season; Guides FY13/14 NZ Milk Supply +2% y/y - Korea Electric Power 015760.KR: (KR) South Korea issues preliminary power shortage alert- Yonhap - Toshiba 6502.JP: Nuclear unit nearing $10B deal for 2 nuclear reactors for the Czech Republic - Japan press - Suzuki Motors 7269.JP: To suspend production in Hungary because of recent floods - Japan press - McDonald's 2702.JP: Reports May SSS +1.0%; First rise in 14 months - AAPL: To start low-priced iPhone sales in August - Taiwan press - BHP: Finalised the $1.63B sale of its stake in Woodside Petroleum's Browse liquefied natural gas venture in Western Australia to PetroChina - SMH - Source


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