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Monday June 10, 2013 - 10:01:36 GMT
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TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Session shakes off weak Chinese trade and Industrial Production data

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Session shakes off weak Chinese trade and Industrial Production data
Mon, 10 Jun 2013 5:39 AM EST

***Notes/Observations***
- China May Trade Balance in line with expectations but disappointing components; - Exports Y/Y: 1.0% (10 month low) v 7.4%e; Imports Y/Y: -0.3% v 6.6%e **Note: First time both US imports and exports fell since 2009)
- China May New Yuan Loans hit a 3-month low (CNY): 667.4B vs. 850Be
- China May CPI softer tha expected and match 4-month low
- China May Industrial Production slightly below consensus (9.2% v 9.4%e)
- Japan PM Abe proposes tax incentives to promote capital spending; Nikkei surges
- Japan Q1 Final GDP revised higher
- Japan Apr Current Account registers 3rd straight month of surplus with adj at 14-month high
- ECB OMT bond buying will be in focus - the German constitutional court is scheduled to hold a two-day hearing on June 11-12; decision expected around Sept but line of questions will be eyed (**Note" German Federal elections in late Sept)
- France President Hollande reiterates view that Eurozone crisis was over
- (RU) Russia Central Bank (CBR) left key rates unchanged (as expected) but cut medium term rates.
- Italy Q1 Final GDP revised a touch lower; exports had worst quarterly performance in four years


***Economic Data***
- (RU) Russia Central Bank (CBR) left key rates unchanged (as expected) but cut medium term rates.

- (JP) Japan May Bankruptcies Y/Y: -6.2% v -10.5% prior
- (JP) Japan May Consumer Confidence: 45.7 v 44.7e
- (CH) Swiss May Unemployment Rate: 3.0% v 3.1%e; Unemployment Rate Seasonally Adj: 3.2% v 3.2%e
- (FI) Finland Apr Industrial Production M/M: % v 0.0%e; Y/Y: % v -0.4%e
- (JP) Japan May Eco Watchers Current Survey: 55.7 v 56.0e; Outlook Survey: 56.2 v 56.6e
- (FR) Bank of France May Business Sentiment: 94 v 95e
- (FR) France Apr Industrial Production M/M: 2.2% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: -0.5% v -4.0%e
- (FR) France Apr Manufacturing Production M/M: 2.6% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: -0.2% v -3.5%e

- (CZ) Czech May CPI M/M: -0.2% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: 1.3% v 1.6%e
- (CZ) Czech May Unemployment Rate: 7.5% v 7.5%e
- (AT) Austria Q1 Final WIFO GDP: 0.0% v -0.1% prior
- (DK) Denmark Apr Current Account (DKK): 9.8B v 4.8Be; Trade Balance (ex-shipping): 7.8B v 4.8Be
- (DK) Denmark May CPI M/M: 0.1% v 0.1%; Y/Y: 0.9% v 0.9%e
- (DK) Denmark May CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 0.2% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 0.6% v 0.5%e
- (TR) Turkey Apr Industrial Production M/M: +1.3 v -0.9% prior; Y/Y: 3.4% v 2.3%e
- (EU) ECB 1.1B borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 1.0B prior; 100.9B parked in deposit facility vs. 89.9B prior
- (CH) Swiss Apr Real Retail Sales Y/Y: +3.3% v -0.8% prior
- (GR) Greece May YTD Primary Central Govt Budget Balance: -1.0B v -4.2B target
- (SE) Sweden Apr Industrial Production M/M: -0.5% v +0.3%e; Y/Y:-0.8% v +0.7%e
- (SE) Sweden Apr Industrial Orders M/M: -10.3% v +10.5% prior; Y/Y: 1.7% v 11.2% prior
- (SE) Sweden May Budget Balance (SEK): 22.7B v -0.8B prior
- (IT) Italy Apr Industrial Production M/M: -0.3% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: -0.1% v -9.5% prior; Industrial Production wda Y/Y: -4.6-3.6%e
- (NO) Norway May CPI M/M: +0.1% v -0.1%e; Y/Y: 2.0% v 1.8%e

- (NO) Norway May CPI Underlying M/M: 0.3% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: 1.4% v 1.1%e
- (NO) Norway May Producer Prices incl.Oil M/M: -2.2% v +0.2% prior; Y/Y: -1.7% v -1.6% prior
- (EU) Euro Zone Jun Sentix Investor Confidence: -11.6 v -11.3e
- (IT) Italy Q1 Final GDP Q/Q: -0.6% v -0.5%e; Y/Y: -2.4% v -2.3%e
- (GR) Greece Apr Industrial Production Y/Y: -1.8% v -1.1% prior
- (GR) Greece May Consumer Price Index Y/Y: -0.4% v -0.6% prior; CPI - EU Harmonized Y/Y: -0.3 v -0.6% prior

Fixed Income:
- (DE) Germany sold 3.23B in 6-month BuBills; Avg Yield: +0.0231% v +0.0013% prior; Bid-to-cover:1.7 x v 1.5x prior

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***

***Equities***
FTSE 100 -0.10% at 6,405, DAX +0.70% at 8,312, CAC-40 -0.20% at 3,864, IBEX-35 -0.20% at 8,250, FTSE MIB -0.30% at 16,637, SMI +0.30% at 7,808, S&P 500 Futures +0.30% at 1,644

- Equity markets in Europe are mostly higher, tracking the gains in the US and Japanese markets, as dealers assess the recent US payrolls report. Germany's DAX has outperformed (supported by banks, Volkswagen and Deutsche Telekom), while the Italian FTSE MIB has lagged. European banks are mostly higher led by Deutsche Bank and RBS. Weaker than expected data out of China has weighed on shares of resource-related companies. Looking ahead, traders are expected to focus on the upcoming German constitutional court hearings on the ECB's OMT bond buying program (June 11-12th).

- UK movers [Punch Taverns +6% (restructuring update), Balfour Beatty +3% (cost cutting measures at UK construction unit), Betfair +3% (broker commentary); Severn Trent -5% (Longriver threatened to withdraw bid), Polymetal -4.5% (speculation firm may be removed from FTSE 100), Mulberry -4% (concerns that creative director may resign)]
- Germany movers [Fresenius Medical Care +1.5% (broker commentary), Deutsche Telekom +1.5% (speculation related to stake in T-Mobile USA)]
- Spain movers [FCC +1.5% (asset sale)]
- Italy movers [Telecom Italia -3% (broker commentary)]
- Switzerland movers [AMS -20% (profit warning)]

Speakers:
- Russia Central Bank commented after its rate decision that Inflation was above target and a risk to expectations.
It did expect inflation to slow to 5%-6% target range in 2H. Economic slowdown risks persisted due to weak investment and external demand
- ECB's Weidmann (Germany) commented that German economy had mostly overcome its weak phase and should see a modest recovery but the outlook depended on whether the EMU economies stabilized. The global economic recovery was gaining steam this year. He added that German inflation should moderate in 2013 and that target2 balances showed some trust has returned to the Eurozone
- ECB's Nowotny (Austria) reiterated the view that accommodative monetary policy was still needed. No single economic indicator could provide complete monetary policy guidance and effective banking regulation required effective supervision
- Swiss Official commented that the improvement to jobless numbers due to seasonal factors. Weak domestic economy to weigh on job market in H2 part of year. The decline in youth unemployment was pleasing
- Poland Deputy Fin Kowalczyk commented that it might issue foreign currency-denominated bonds in the fourth quarter to finance some of the country's 2014 foreign currency needs. The level of potential pre-financing needed to make economic sense
- Poland Central Bank member Glapinski: Sees low probability of a July rate cut
- Poland Central Bank's Zielinska: Central bank inclined to end easing in July
- Israel Central Bank Minutes showed the vote back on May 27th waswas 5 to 1 on rate cut
- India Chief Econ Adviser Rajan commented that govt seeks INR currency (Rupee) stability and Indian Central Bank (RBI) to decide whether and when to intervene fx market. Medium-term steps like facilitating exports to help Rupee find sustainable level.
- India Economic Affairs Sec stated that it was holding meetings with Central bankers to discuss the response to the weakening INR (Rupee) and current account deficit
- Thailand Central Bank gov stated that it might cut its 2013 GDP forecast from current 5.1% view due to weaker growth in China and slowing domestic consumption

Currencies/Fixed Income:
- The session began with a positive environment for risk appetite despite a mixed bag of Chinese data. The Nikkei225 Index rose by almost 5% as the USD/JPY currency pair registered a sense of stability and holding above the 98 handle. The Japanese performance was attributed to comments from PM Abe who proposed tax incentives aimed at promoting capital spending. Dealers also noted of rumors of Tokyo meeting between govt officials, industry leaders, and hedge fund managers discussing recent market activity and outlook going forward.
- The EUR/USD hovered around the 1.32 handle in the session. The ECB's OMT bond buying scheme will be in focus as the German constitutional court was scheduled to hold a two-day hearing on June 11-12th. The debate will not yield any immediate decision but line of questions will be eyed. Dealers suspected a possible decision around the time when Germany holds its Federal elections in late Sept
- AUD currency however, remained pressured on growing evidence that China economic engine was slowing.
- Weaker Swedish Industrial Production data sent the SEK currency broadly lower. The EUR/SEK pair sent from 8.66 to test 8.71 in the aftermath of the datya release
- The Indian Rupee hit a fresh record low against the USD over concerns of its current account deficit. The USD/INR tested 57.80 in the session
- The South African Rand (ZAR) was also weaker in the session over continued concerns on labor unrest in its mining sector. The USD/ZAR pair tested 10.21

- Political/In the Papers:
- (EU) ECB spokesperson denies press reports OMT is limited to 524B speculated in German press - financial press
- (EU) France Pres Hollande: Eurozone crisis is over; Encouraging to see Japan committed to policies of growth - financial press
- (EU) German Fin Min Schaeuble: Germany planning to expand credit scheme for small and medium enterprises from Spain to include Portugal and Italy - German press
- (EU) European Comission forecasts ESM to have 210B to allocate towards lending, direct bank aid will be used only when threatening a country's finances - banking union draft report; Affirms direct bank assistance will be limited to 60B
- (DE) According to a former German judge, the upcoming constitutional court ruling could cause Germany to evaluate its position in the EMU - Telegraph's Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
- (DE) Legal experts are divided on how Germany's constitutional court will rule on the ECB's OMT bond purchases - US financial press
- (DE) JPMorgan raising its Q2 GDP target for Germany by 1% to 2.5% following strong April exports and industrial output
- (GR) Greece PM Samaras: To achieve a primary surplus this year, ahead of current target
- (GR) IMF said to support ways to help Greece lower its projected financing deficit for 2014 of about 4.6B - German Press
- (GR) Greece PM Samaras to meet with troika Monday for a fresh audit; Will also have to try and make headway within his coalition for laws needed for required changes - Greek press
- (IT) Italy Fin Min Saccomanni: EU has to do more to overcome economic weakness - financial press; cheap money risks causing a global bubble; hopeful can review the IMU property tax on housing by August, will also review Monti's labor reform

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)
- World Economic Forum Meeting on Japan
- (AT) ECB members Nowotny and Couere with Austria's PM Faymann, Fin Min Fekter at Vienna Conference
- (GR) Luxembourg PM Juncker with Greece PM Samaras in Athens
- (IN) India Apr Trade Balance: No est v -$17.8B prior; Imports Y/Y: No est v 11.0% prior; Exports Y/Y: No est v 1.7% prior
- (IN) India May Local Car Sales Y/Y: No est v 150.8K prior
- 06:00 (EU) OECD Apr Leading Indicators: No est v 100.5 prior
- 06:00 (IL) Israel to sell Bonds
- 06:30 (US) Daily Libor Fixings
- 07:00 (BR) Brazil Jun Preliminary IGP-M Inflation: 0.3%e v 0.0% prior
- 07:30 (BR) Brazil Central Bank Weekly Economists Survey
- 08:00 (RO) Romania to sell RON300M in Bonds
- 08:15 (CA) Canada May Housing Starts M/M: 179.1Ke v 174.9K prior
- 08:30 (CH) Swiss Government Question Time in Parliament
- 08:50 (FR) France Debt Agency (AFT) to sell 7.7B in 3-month, 6-month, and 12-month bills
- 09:00 (MX) Mexico Apr Final Trade Balance: No est v -$1.2B prelim
- 09:30 (EU) ECB calls for bids in 7-Day and 1-month Main Refinancing Tender
- 09:30 (EU) ECB announces prior settlements in SMP program to offset bond purchases
- 11:00 (US) Fed to purchase $1.00-1.50B in Notes
- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell combined $55B in 3-Month and 6-Month Bills
- 13:00 (GR) Luxembourg PM Juncker in Athens
- 13:30 (BR) Brazil Apr CNI Capacity Utilization: No est v 82.2% prior
- 15:00 (CH) Swiss National Bank (SNB) VP Danthine speaks in Montreal
- (JP) Bank of Japan (BOJ) Interest Rate Decision

 

 

 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Thu 16 Nov
01:30 AU- Employment
09:30 GB- Retail Sales
10:00 EZ- final HICP
14:15 US- Industrial Production
Fri 17 Nov
13:30 CA- Retail Sales, CPI
13:30 US- Housing Starts and Permits

Forex Trading Outlook


Potential Trading Opportunities


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH to Medium Wed -- 20:30 GMT AU- Employment data.

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Mediun Thu -- 10:00 GMT EZ- final HICP. ECB targets inflation.

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH to Medium Fri -- 13:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits.



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