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TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: BOJ disappoints; Peripheral bond yields rise in session led by Greece; German Constitutional Court begins 2-day debate on ECB bond buying program

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: BOJ disappoints; Peripheral bond yields rise in session led by Greece; German Constitutional Court begins 2-day debate on ECB bond buying program
Tue, 11 Jun 2013 5:48 AM EST

***Notes/Observations***
- (JP) Bank of Japan (BOJ) Policy Statement reiterates to increase monetary base at annual pace of 60-70T; Refrains from extending duration of fixed rate supplying operation citing decline in volatility
- Several Emerging market central banks (India and Turkey) take measure to curb FX volatile
- German Constitutional Court begins two days of debate on legality of ECB bond buying program
- ECB's Draghi made hawkish remarks yesterday and this has underpinned the EUR
- US bond yields continue to drift higher; Dealers ponder at what point will rising rates impact the economy
- Peripheral bond yields sharply higher; Greece said to seek lower privatization target from Troika target after failure to sell stake in gas company


***Economic Data***
- (JP) Japan May Preliminary Machine Tool Orders Y/Y: -7.4% v -23.6% prior
- (HU) Hungary May Consumer Prices M/M: -0.1% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: 1.8% v 1.9%e
- (ES) Spain Apr House transactions Y/Y: +10.8% v -12.6% prior
- (TR) Turkey Q1 GDP Q/Q: 1.6% v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: 3.0% v 2.4%e; GDP wda Y/Y: 3.7% v 1.4% prior
- (TR) Turkey Apr Current Account:-$8.2B v -$8.1Be
- (EU) ECB 1.6B borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 1.1B prior; 105.9B parked in deposit facility vs. 100.9B prior
- (SE) Sweden May CPI Headline Rate M/M: 0.2% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: -0.2% v -0.3%e; CPI Level: 314.54 v 314.34e
- (SE) Sweden May CPI CPIF M/M: 0.2% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 0.7% v 0.7%e
- (UK) Apr Industrial Production M/M: 0.1% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: -0.6% v -0.6%e
- (UK) Apr Manufacturing Production M/M: -0.2% v -0.2%e; Y/Y: -0.5% v -0.3%e

- (CY) Cyprus May CPI Harmonized M/M: 0.8% v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: 0.2% v 0.1% prior
- (ZA) South Africa Apr Gold Production Y/Y: -3.1% v -6.2% prior; Mining Production Y/Y: -0.4% v +0.1%e

Fixed Income:
- (NL) Netherlands Debt Agency (DSTA) sold 2.65B vs. 2.5-3.5B indicated indicated in Apr. 0.0% 2016 DSL Bonds; Avg Yield: 0.495% v 0.395% prior
- (GR) Greece Debt Agency (PDMA) sold 1.625B vs. 1.25B indicated in 26-week Bills; Avg Yield: 4.20% v 4.20% prior; Bid-to-cover:1.70 x v 1.71x prior
- (EU) ECB allotted 108.3B in 7-day Main Refinancing Tender at fixed 0.50% vs. 103.0B
- (EU) ECB allotted 3.6 in 1-Month Refinancing Tender at fixed 0.50% vs. 5.2B prior
- (CH) Switzerland sold CHF847.2M in 3-Month Bills; Avg Yield: -0.119% v -0.127% prior
- (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) sold HUF40B vs. HUF50B indicated 3-Month Bills; Avg Yield: 4.38% v 4.19% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.60x v 1.86x prior
- (DE) Germany sold 805M in I/L Apr 2023 Bund; Yield: +0.06% v -0.40% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.6x v 1.6x prior
- (UK) DMO sold 3.75B in new 2.25% 2023 Gilt; Avg Yield: 2.365% v 1.734% prior; Bid-to-cover:1.52 x v 1.68x prior; Tail: 0.4bps v 0.2bps prior

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***

***Equities***
FTSE 100 -1.1% at 6,323,
DAX -1.4% at 8,188, CAC-40 -1.3% at 3,815, IBEX-35 -1.5% at 8,107, FTSE MIB -1.6% at 16,287, SMI -1.5% at 7,672, S&P 500 Futures -0.60% at 1,631

- Equity markets in European are broadly lower, in line with the declines seen across Asia. Traders have focused on the earlier commentary out of the Bank of Japan (BoJ), rising emerging market bond yields and comments out of the German constitutional court on the ECB's OMT bond buying program. European banks are broadly lower led by Spanish and Italian banks, amid the widening in peripheral debt spreads. Weakness in commodity prices has continued to weigh on resource-related companies.

- UK movers [Keller Group +4% (acquisition), Bovis Homes +2% (broker commentary); ICAP -3.5% (broker commentary)]
- Germany movers [Rheinmetall +3.5% (broker commentary), Infineon +3% (broker commentary), SMA Solar +2% (broker commentary), Gerry Weber +1.5% (broker commentary); Takkt -8% (share placement)]
- France movers [Legrand -3% (share placement), Remy Cointreau -0.50% (FY op profit below ests)]
- Italy movers [Enel -1.5% (broker commentary)]

Speakers:
- BOJ Gov Kuroda post-rate decision press conference reiterated economy had been picking up. He noted that the board saw no need to add funds longer than 1 year as volatility declined.
JGB market had largely calmed down in terms of volatility. BoJ to discuss longer fund operations when needed and would continue to watch J-REIT market. He noted that there was more room in ETF market than J-REIT for BoJ purchases; J-REITS were not so big, may be little room for BoJ purchases. Reiterated BoJ watching long-term JGB yields and that domestic prices likely to rise on year gradually, inflation expectations were rising as a whole.- Reiterates too early to discuss exit as 2% inflation is far off.- Not expecting sharp decline in China's growth pace or rapid rise in Chinese bad loans.
- German Top Court President Vosskuhle commented that the Court would not rule on utility of ECB policy. He added that the success of the ECB policy did not prejudice legal issues and the ends of ECB policy did not justify the means. Success of ECB's measures would plays no role in deciding whether they are constitutional.
- ECB's Liikanen (Finland) reiterated that ECB stood ready to act if necessary. Finland cut both its 2013 and 2014 GDP forecasts
- Turkey Central Bank announced that it would start extra monetary tightening citing extreme volatility in FX markets. It might hold forex sale auctions or could intervene in FX market directly
- Greece said to seek lower privatization from Troika target after failure to sell stake in gas company
- German Chancellor Merkel speaking to BDI in Berlin noted that German employment numbers were 'excellent' German economy impacted by slowing Euro Zone and needed to focus on austerity and reforms. ECB was defending monetary stability. German Court judging euro commitment to solidarity
- Russia Central Bank's Ignatiev: June inflation could move below 7.0%
- German Fin Min Schaeuble commented ahead of the Karlsuhe Court hearing that he has no doubt ECB was acting within mandate and would wait for court hearing, feeling confident
- German CDU's Willsch commented that Bundesbank should be prohibited by German Constitutional Court to participate in ECB bond buying program
- German BDI's Grillo supports German Chancellor Merkel's pledge not to increase taxes
- German Econ Ministry stated that ECB must not use monetary policy to lower the EUR FX rate. Price stability must remain the main goal of the ECB, money printing would lead to problems down the road and is not an alternative to reforms
- Swiss Govt (SECO) updated its Economic forecasts which raised 2013 GDP growth forecast to 1.4% from 1.3% Mar view and cuts its 2013 inflation to -0.1% from +0.1% prior. It maintained 2014 GDP growth forecast at 2.1% and inflation at 0.2%. SECO also maintained 2013 Unemployment Rate
- Switzerland's parliamentary committee said to opposed to bill which would allow banks to resolve tax disputes with the US. The economics committee of the Swiss upper house rejected the measure by a 7 to 6 vote. However, the vote of the committee is not binding for the entire upper house.
- Turkey PM Erdogan reiterated that legitimate demands of protesters would be heard
- Japan Chief Cabinet Sec Suga stated that PM Abe to give policy speech in London in mid-June when he visits Poland, UK and Ireland on Jun 15th. He also noted that monetary policy decision had been left up to BOJ
- India Economic Affairs Sec Mayaram
stated that he saw a major decline in Gold imports and added that the INR (Rupee) decline was temporary, not overly worried about fall
- India chief Fin Min Economic Advisor Rajan noted that steps would be taken to curb INR currency (rupee) volatility necessary. The recent decline due to debt outflows. Gold purchases increased considerably in month of May but would see a decrease in June. Creating conditions to lower current account deficit. Govt could consider raising funds through NRI bonds
- Indonesia Dep Min: Govt expressed concerned over recent plunge in IDR currency (rupiah) forwards. He noted that growing uncertainty over fuel price was contributing to currency and equity price decline

Currencies/Fixed Income:
- The JPY was firmer in the EU session following the trend in late crisis after the BOJ failed to deliver another dose of policy action in its decision. There was some speculation that the BOJ would extend its 0.1% fixed-rate lending facility to banks from one year to two. This did not. The BOJ in its press conference reiterated that it waswatching long-term JGB yields and please in the decline in recent volatility. The USD/JPY pair moved below 97.00 just ahead of te NY morning.
- The EUR/USD inched towards the 1.33 handle aided by ECB's Draghi hawkish remarks on Monday that ECB would not intervene in bond markets to help solvency of EMU countries
- The INR currency (rupee) off record lows on chatter the RBI has intervened through State banks at the 58.95 level.
- The TRY currency was off session lows after the Turkish Central Bank stated that it would start extra monetary tightening due to extreme volatility in FX markets.
- Peripheral bond yields sharply higher in the session. Greece said to seek lower privatization target from Troika target after failure to sell stake in gas company. The move follows Monday's ECB's Draghi comment that it would not intervene in bond markets to help solvency of EMU countries if they profligate. Greece 10-year gov't yield move back above 10%, higher by over 90bps in session; highest since early May

- Political/In the Papers:
- (EU) ECB's Draghi: Will not intervene in bond markets to help solvency of EMU countries if they are profligate; Risks posed on Germany's taxpayers have declined from last year; ECB was committed to remove only that part of the spread that has to do with the confidence crisis in the euro
- (GR) EU's Juncker: Confident that Greece will be able to return to public debt markets; Greece can achieve a primary surplus this year
- (PT) ECB's Costa (Portugal): Exports are the only aspect helping growth in Portugal now, domestic demand is slowing
- (ES) Bank of Spain's Linde: Does not see Spain banks needing to access additional ECB capital - financial press; Govt may decide in Oct whether or not to request extension to bank rescue facility.
- (CH) Swiss National Bank's (SNB) Danthine: A stronger CHF would be an insurmountable hurdle for the Swiss economy, SNB policy did not represent a competitive devaluation
- (US) Fed's Bullard (moderate, FOMC voter): Need reassurance that the low inflation is just noise before tapering the bond purchasing program
- (US) Moody's notes it will make its decision to either raise the outlook or cut the rating on the US sovereign by year's end
- (JP) Former Japan Fin Min official Sakakibara ('Mr Yen'): Does not see yen to to depreciate further, will likely have around 100

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (AT) ECB members Nowotny and Couere with Austria's PM Faymann, Fin Min Fekter at Vienna Conference
- (DE) ECB's Asmussen and Weidmann at German Consitutional Court hearing
- (RU) Russia Apr Trade Balance: $14.2Be v $16.1B prior; Exports: $42.0Be v $44.2B prior; Imports: $28.0Be v $28.1B prior
- (PE) Peru Apr Trade Balance: No est v $302M prior
- 06:00 (EU) EU to propose widening automatic Tax-Data Exchange in Brussels
- 06:00 (EU) EU to issue action plan for Steel Industry in Brussels
- 06:00 (SI) Slovenia President Pahor in EU Parliament
- 06:00 (IL) Israel May Trade Balance: No est v -$1.2B prior
- 06:00 (PT) Portugal Apr Construction Works Index: No est v 47.9 prior
- 06:30 (AT) OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report
- 06:30 (US) Daily Libor Fixings
- 07:00 (EU) ECB allotment in 7-Day Term Deposit Tender to offset Govt Bond Purchases (SMP); to drain 195B
- 07:00 (EU) ECB's Makuch (Slovakia)
- 07:00 (DE) German Chancellor Merkel
- 07:00 (ZA) South Africa Apr Manufacturing Production M/M: +1.8%e v -2.5% prior; Y/Y: +2.0%e v -2.2% prior
- 07:30 (US) May NFIB Small Business Optimism: 92.1e v 92.1 prior
- 07:45 (US) Weekly ICSC Chain Store Sales
- 08:30 (CL) Chile Central Bank's Economist Survey
- 08:55 (US) Weekly Redbook Retail Sales
- 09:00 (MX) Mexico Apr Industrial Production M/M: +0.5%e v -0.3% prior; Y/Y: +5.3%e v -4.9% prior; Manufacturing Production Y/Y: No est v -5.8% prior
- 09:00 (EU) Weekly ECB Forex Reserves
- 10:00 (US) Apr Wholesale Inventories M/M: 0.2%e v 0.4% prior; Wholesale Sales M/M: -0.1%e v -1.6% prior
- 10:00 (US) Apr JOLTs Job Openings: 3.90Me v 3.844M prior
- 10:00 (UK) May NIESR GDP Estimate: No est v 0.8% prior
- 10:00 (MX) Mexico Weekly International Reserves
- 10:30 (EU) EU Commissioner Rehn in Netherlands Parliament
- 10:30 (UK) DMO to announce size of 1.25% 2018 Gilt
- 11:00 (EU) Euro System financial statement
- 11:00 (US) Fed to purchase $1.25-1.75B in Notes
- 11:00 (UR) Ukraine to sell Bills and Bonds
- 11:30 (IT) Italy's EU Affairs Min
- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell $35B in 4-Week Bills
- 12:00 World Bank President Kim
- 12:00 (US) DOE Short-Term Crude Outlook
- 12:00 (BR) Brazil to sell I/L 2018, 2022, 2030, 2040 and 2050 Bonds
- 12:30 (EU) ECB's Praet (Belgium) speaks in Frankfurt
- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell $32B in 3-Year Notes
- 13:30 (BR) Brazil Apr CNI Capacity Utilization: 82.3%e v 82.2% prior
- 16:30 (US) Weekly API U.S. Crude Oil Inventories

 

 

 

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