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Friday July 22, 2005 - 09:25:30 GMT
Mellon Bank Foreign Exchange -

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Forex: Mellon FX Daily - European Edition

Key Points
• EUR-USD may test a little higher initially, but upside could be limited if EUR-JPY starts to weaken again.

• Implications of CNY move for EUR-USD are unclear.

• More JPY strength could be seen in the short-term.

• GBP focused on GDP today – Canadian CPI and retail sales also due.

Market Outlook

EUR-USD bounced back after the London close and has been fairly steady through the Asian session. The market is still a little uncertain about the implications of the CNY move for non-Asian currencies, essentially because it is just not clear. If anything, the enhanced ability of the USD to depreciate against Asia, where most of the US trade imbalances lie, should mean there is less need for the USD to depreciate against other currencies. In recent years EUR-USD has been the main vehicle for venting sentiments about the US balance of payments problem. This should now be neutralised somewhat. It is not necessarily a negative development for EUR-USD, merely an argument against any excessive movement in EUR-USD if USD sentiment does turn sour again. The near-term outlook is a little unclear – upside could be seen early today, although 1.2250-60 needs to be cleared to allow a further recovery. EUR-JPY could constrain EUR-USD upside if it starts to weaken again.

The JPY weakened early in Asia, with the market perhaps reacting to the scale of yesterday’s move. Having traded in such a wide range over the past 24 hours there is room for volatility, although overall the JPY may have some more strength left in it in the short-term. The immediate levels of importance on USDJPY today are at 110.80 and 111.25. A break of either would create some intra-day directional bias. 134.95 and 135.35 are the equivalent levels on EUR-JPY. Further strength in other Asian currencies is also likely.

GBP has recovered some of the lost ground against the EUR,
in part because of yesterday’s strong retail sales number.
However, as noted yesterday the uplift in sales volumes was
due in part to the early introduction of summer discounting
(because of sluggish sales previously). While the data looks
impressive and came to a market slightly vulnerable (with rate
cuts already priced in) July sales should subsequently weaken if
the normal seasonal uplift to that month has been transferred to
June. Today’s GDP data will be important (see below).

Day Ahead
UK – Q2 GDP is released today and will influence expectations about the tone of the key August Inflation Report. Recent downward revisions have taken GDP growth down over the past three quarters and as one can see from the chart, the performance over this period is the weakest for some time.

Canada – CPI and retail sales are due in Canada, where the market is now expecting a rate hike on September 7. CPI has been uneventful and subdued in recent months, while sales have been remarkably strong. The last four readings on exautos sales have been Apr +0.8%, Mar +0.5%, Feb +1.0% and Jan +2.0%.

Data/event EDT Consensus*

DE CPI states (Jul, prel) m/m from today +0.3%
GB GDP (Q2, 1st est) q/q 09.30 +0.4%
EU Manu orders (May) m/m 10.00 +0.9%
CA CPI (Jun) y/y 12.00 +1.8%
CA CPIX (Jun) y/y 12.00 +1.7%
CA Retail sales (May) m/m 13.30 -0.4%
CA Retail sales ex-autos (May) m/m 13.30 +0.2%

Latest data Actual Consensus*
JP Tertiary index (May) m/m -1.5% -1.4%
JP All-industry index (May) m/m -1.4% -1.5%
* Consensus unless stated

2005, Mellon Financial Corporation Note: Although obtained from sources believed by us to be reliable, Mellon Financial Corporation and its affiliates cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information upon which this report is based. This report does not purport to disclose the risks or benefits of entering into particular transactions and should not be construed as advice in any specific instance. The views in this report constitute our judgement as of this date and are subject to change without notice.
Ian Gunner 44 20 7163 5996 06.40 EDT Monday May 31 2005


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