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Wednesday June 12, 2013 - 10:44:21 GMT
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TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Risk aversion takes a breather; UK jobless claims fall for 7th straight month

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Risk aversion takes a breather; UK jobless claims fall for 7th straight month
Wed, 12 Jun 2013 5:42 AM EST

***Notes/Observations***
- Chinese markets remain on holiday and will reopen tomorrow (Thursday)
- (JP) Japan FSA plans to adopt "bail-in" policy for failing banks, to force losses on investors; Nikkei falls 2% but recovers most of decline
- (JP) Japan government to pick locations of new special economic zones as early as August to drive more sustainable economic growth
- UK Jobless claims falls for the 7th straight month while wages rise
- German Constitutional Court (Karlsruhe) President Vosskuhle sees ECB conditionality as good middle ground in OMT debate
- Italy sells expected amount in 12-month Bills but at a higher borrowing rate
- US 10-year auction could be a major focus today after Tuesday's weak 3-year results


***Economic Data***
- (FR) France Q1 Final Non-Farm Payrolls Q/Q: -0.1% v -0.1%e
- (IN) India Apr Industrial Production Y/Y: 2.0% v 2.4%e

- (IN) India May CPI Y/Y: 9.4% v 9.0%e
- (DE) Germany May Final Consumer Price Index M/M: 0.4% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 1.5% v 1.5%e
- (DE) Germany May Final CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 0.3% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 1.6% v 1.7%e
- (FI) Finland Apr Final Retail Sales Volume Y/Y: 0.3% v 0.4% prelim
- (FR) France Apr Current Account: -2.8B v -2.9B prior
- (FR) France May Consumer Price Index M/M: 0.1% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 0.8% v 0.9%e; CPI Ex Tobacco Index: 125.57 v 125.62e
- (FR) France May CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 0.1% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 0.9% v 0.9%e
- (ES) Spain May Consumer Price Index M/M: 0.2% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 1.7% v 1.7%e
- (ES) Spain May CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 0.1% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: % v 0.9%e
- (ES) Spain May CPI Core M/M: 0.3% v 0.8% prior; Y/Y: 2.0% v 1.9%e
- (EU) ECB 917M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 1.6B prior; 103.0B parked in deposit facility vs. 105.9B prior
- (IT) Italy May Final CPI (NIC incl. tobacco) M/M: 0.0% v 0.1% prelim; Y/Y: 1.1% v 1.2% prelim
- (IT) Italy May Final CPI EU Harmonized: M/M; 0.0% v 0.0% prelim; Y/Y: 1.3% v 1.3%e
- (UK) May Jobless Claims Change: -8.6K v -5.0Ke (7th straight month of declines); Claimant Count Rate: 4.5% v 4.5%e
- (UK) Apr Average Weekly Earnings 3M/Y: 1.3% v 0.2%e; Weekly Earnings ex-Bonus 3M/Y: 0.9% v 0.8%e
- (UK) Apr ILO Unemployment Rate 3M/3M: 7.8% v 7.8%e; Employment Change 3M/3M: +24K v -11Ke
- (IS) Iceland Central Bank (Sedlabanki) left 7-Day Lending Rates at 6.00% (5th straight pause)
- (EU) Euro Zone Apr Industrial Production M/M: 0.4% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: -0.6% v -1.2%e

Fixed Income:
- (IN) India sold total INR120B vs. NR120B indicated in 3-month and 6-month Bills
- (IT) Italy Debt Agency (Tesoro) sold 7.0B vs. 7.0B indicated in 12-month Bills; Avg Yield 0.962% (highest since March)v 0.703% 0.922% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.49x v 1.16x prior
- (EU) ECB allotted $0.0M in 7-Day USD Liquidity Tender at fixed 0.61% vs. $0.0M prior
- (SE) Sweden sold SEK3.5B in 2023 Bonds; Avg yield: 1.9592% v 1.9062% prior
- (CH) Switzerland sold CHF194M in 1.5% 2042 bond; 1.459% v 1.257% prior
- (DE) Germany sold 4.039B in 0.0% 2015 BOBLs; Avg Yield: +0.18% v +0.02% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.02x v 2.04x prior

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***

***Equities***
FTSE 100 flat at 6,338,
DAX -0.10% at 8,217, CAC-40 +0.30% at 3,821, IBEX-35 +1.2% at 8,186, FTSE MIB +0.10% at 16,297, SMI +0.20% at 7,686, S&P 500 Futures +0.50% at 1,634

- Equity markets in Europe have moved off of the session's worst levels following the mostly lower open, as the Japanese yen has weakened and certain emerging markets have showed signs of stability. Also, Spanish and Italian government bond yields have declined on the session, following the sharp rises seen in yields on Tuesday's session. Additionally, traders have focused on the additional comments out of Germany's Constitutional Court related to the ECB's OMT bond buying program. Spain's IBEX-35 has outperformed, amid gains in banks and shares of retailer Inditex. Germany's DAX has lagged, as Volkswagen has declined by over 2%. European banks are trading mixed. The top gainers include RBS and BBVA, while shares of Deutsche Bank have lagged. Resource-related firms are mixed, despite the gains being seen for commodity prices.

- UK movers [Heritage Oil +5% (production update), Asos +3.5% (Q3 sales above ests), British Sky +2% (takeover speculation), Antofagasta +1% (reaffirmed production forecast); Severn Trent -7% (LongRiver withdrew bid), Daily Mail -1.5% (broker commentary)]
- Germany movers [Kabel Deutschland +7% (Vodafone confirmed preliminary approach), Fraport +0.50% (reported rise in May traffic); Axel Springer -3.5% (share placement), Jungheinrich -2.5% (ex-dividend), Volkswagen -2% (convertible bond sale), Daimler -1% (broker commentary)]
- France [Peugeot +2% (broker commentary)]
- Italy movers [Buzzi Unicem +1% (broker commentary); Fiat -2% (broker commentary)]
- Switzerland movers [Nobel Biocare -3% (broker commentary)]

Speakers:
- German Constitutional Court (Karlsruhe) President Vosskuhle commented that ECB's conditionality on OMTs could help draw the line between fiscal and monetary policy and good middle ground

- Spain PM Rajoy commented in Parliament that ther was no plan to raise the retirement age further and would keep raising pensions where possible. He reiterated it would not raise sales tax
- IMF's Lagarde defended the ECB's OMT bond buying program noted that its decision in the summer of 2012 changed everything and averted a catastrophe in the EMU. She also reiterated that premature monetary policy exit could undermine trust
- BOE's Haldane written remarks t0 UK Treasury Committee wanted FPC to have directive powers on leverage ratios. Operational risks and 'too big to fail' among the top risks to UK financial stability. Search for yield and low interest rates were others
- BOE Financial Policy Committee (FPC) Members were questioned by Parliament
- BOE's Kohn: UK/Euro Zone weakness most significant risk. Remote but non-zero risk some countries could leave EMU as periphery still faced longer decline and bank stress
- BOE's Fisher: FLS was an exceptional measure in exceptional times, it had been successful in lowering funding costs and eliminated funding restraints on UK banks. Wanted to see pick up in housing market transactions and was worried that Euro crisis had not finish running its course
- Ireland Fin Min Noonan stated that a precautionary credit line would be an issue for discussion in the fall. Ireland can't act alone to close international tax gaps and no plans to act unilaterally on tax avoidance as it would not help the situation
- Spain Catalonia region President Mas called for Central govt to lift the region's budget deficit target. He also unveiled new plan for Catalan tax and social security agencies
- Turkey Central Bank Gov Basci stated that he expected economic growth to pick up in Q2 and would continue to use policy tools. Yesterday's 1-day monetary tightening was very effective and that $2B was used from the reserve options mechanism. Foreign currency reserves are $128B. He saw Inflation falling from August onwards aided by base effect . He noted that direct currency intervention was an option that should be rarely use and yesterday's tightening was a signal. No need at this time to upper band of rates corridor ( move would be debatable). TRY intervention aimed at combating volatility and not a level; as long as TRY (lira) is not over 120 REER it can find its own balance
- Turkey President Gul: Govt officials have a duty to listen to protesters; problems need to be resolved within the law
- India govt may unveil measures today or tomorrow aimed at increasing capital inflows-
- IEA Monthly Oil report trimmed its 2013 oil demand growth forecast by 5K to 785K bpd citing sluggish global growth. It trimmed 2013 Chinese oil demand growth forecast to 3.8% from 3.9%
- German Chancellor Merkel commented that it would not change the clean-energy law on a retro-active basis (No retro active cuts for renewable energy subsidies)

Currencies/Fixed Income:
- The focus of FX came from equity markets in the session.
- The bulk of the damage on the Nikkei225 was inflicted in the US hours after a Japanese press report indicated the FSA is planning to adopt a "bail-in" policy for failing banks, thus forcing losses on investors if necessary. However a recovery in the Nikkei helped to support USD/JPY pair.
- GBP found support as UK May jobless claims fell for the 7th straight month. GBP/USD was inching towards the 1.57 handle as the NY morning approached.
- The EUR/USD hit 3 month highs above 1.3330 before hitting some decent sell orders from Far East sovereign and US Corporates .
- Emerging market currencies rebounded from yesterday's active session. The Indian Rupee (INR) was back below the 58 handle on speculation the India govt might unveil measures aimed at increasing capital inflows. The Turkish Lira (TRY) also strengthened. The EUR/TRY moved back under the 2.50 level after the Turkey Central Bank introduced extra monetary tightening dur to recent extreme volatility in FX markets

- Political/In the Papers:
- (EU) ECB's Weidmann: OMT program has blurred the line between fiscal and monetary policy, there are significant problems with the ECB's bond purchases - arguments before German Constitutional Court; Unlimited bond purchases are not possible uner the ECB mandate; Bond markets play an important disciplinary role, bond purchases should not serve to bring down the insolvency risk premium; Opposes OMT program due to lack of parliamentary control; Disruption of monetary policy transmission mechanism is not a good reason for the ECB to buy bonds.
- (EU) ECB's Asmussen: Fiscal challenges posed to many states cannot fully explain the behavior in bond yields; Reiterates the OMT program was within the ECB's mandate, reiterates OMT has strict conditionality; OMT has no ex-ante limits but has de-facto limits (such as focus on short-term debt), ECB is prepared to purchase unlimited government bonds via the OMT.
- ECB's Praet (Belgium): Negative rates remain as part of the ECB toolkit but have potential consequence
- (EU) EU Parliament approves report calling on EU govts to seek alternatives to eviction and pass measures to prevent evicted persons from continuing to pay on mortgages- El Pais
- (GR) EU's Rehn: It would be premature to discuss changing Greece's privitization targets right now, need to focus on current program; Would also be premature to discuss more Greece debt relief at the moment.

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (EU) EBA Management Board Meeting
- (DE) Germany's Constitutional Court concludes ECB bond-buying hearing
- (MX) Mexico May ANTAD Same-Store Sales Y/Y: No est v -3.2% prior
- (PT) Bank of Portugal releases data on Banks
- 06:00 (PT) Portugal President Silva in EU Parliament
- 06:00 (SE) Sweden Central Bank (Riksbank) Gov Ingves
- 06:00 (PT) Portugal May Consumer Price Index M/M: No est v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: 0.5%e v 0.2% prior
- 06:00 (PT) Portugal May CPI EU Harmonized M/M: -0.2%e v +0.1% prior; Y/Y: 0.6%e v 0.4% prior
- 06:00 (CZ) Czech Republic to sell 2018 and 2028 bonds
- 06:30 (US) Daily Libor Fixings
- 07:00 (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e Jun 7th: No est v -11.5% prior
- 07:00 (ZA) South Africa Apr Retail Sales Constant M/M: +0.4%e v -0.9% prior; Y/Y: 3.5%e v 2.8% prior
- 07:00 (UK) Prime Minister's Question Time in House of Commons
- 07:30 (EU) ECB's Coeure speaks in Berlin
- 08:00 (ZA) South Africa President Zuma
- 08:00 (HU) Hungary Central Bank's Minutes
- 08:30 (CL) Chile Central Bank's Traders Survey
- 09:00 (CA) Canada May Teranet/National Bank HPI M/M: 0.1%e v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: No est v 2.0% prior; House Price Index: No est v 153.68 prior
- 09:00 (PT) IMF issues review of Portugal financial support plan
- 09:00 (EU) EU's Ashton in EU Parliament debate on Turkey
- 09:15 (SK) EU President Van Rompuy with Slovakia PM Fico in Bratislava
- 09:30 (IT) Italy PM Letta in Roma
- 10:30 (US) Weekly DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories
- 10:30 (DE) German Fin Min Schaeuble at IG Metall Union meeting in Heidelberg
- 11:00 (US) Fed to purchase $0.75-1.00B in Notes
- 12:00 (US) World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates (WASDE )
- 12:00 (CA) Canada to sell 2 Year Notes
- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell $21B in 10-Year Notes Reopening
- 13:00 (DE) German Chancellor Merkel at CDU youth event
- 14:00 (US) May Monthly Budget Statement: -$136.5Be v -$124.6B prior
- 17:00 (NZ) RBNZ Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave Official Cast Rate unchanged at 2.50%
- 21:30 (AU) Australia May Employment Change: No est v +50.1K prior; Unemployment Rate: No est v 5.5% prior

 

 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:


Mon 20 Nov
14:00 EZ- Draghi Speech
15:00 US- Leading Indicators
Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
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Fri 24 Nov
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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias


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