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Thursday June 13, 2013 - 10:18:42 GMT
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TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Europe wobbles a bit following China's return after 3-day holiday; Plethora of key US data to gauge Fed tapering sentiment

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Europe wobbles a bit following China's return after 3-day holiday; Plethora of key US data to gauge Fed tapering sentiment
Thu, 13 Jun 2013 5:44 AM EST

***Notes/Observations***
- World Bank cuts 2013 GDP growth forecast to 2.2% from 2.4% prior; Far East markets react
- (AU) Australia May Employment Change comes in better than forecasts (+1.1K vs. -10.0Ke; Unemployment Rate improves; talk of change in the sampling methodology limits quick conclusion.
- (KR) Bank of Korea (BOK) left its 7-Day Repo Rate unchanged at 2.50% (as expected)
- (NZ) Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) leaves Official Cash Rate unchanged at 2.50% (as expected)
- (JP) Japan investors sold net 386.9B in Foreign Bonds last week (4th straight week of net sells)
- Indonesia hikes key rate to combat inflation concerns (and a weak rupiah currency)
- Italy bond auction results seen as steady given the current market volatility. Sells upper end of range
- Euro area will be the top discussion at the G8 meeting on June 17-18th in Ireland
- Plethora of key US data to gauge Fed tapering sentiment later in session highlighted by retail sales


***Economic Data***
- (ID) Indonesia Central Bank (BI) raised its Reference Rate by 25bps to 6.00%, not expected

- (DE) Germany May Wholesale Prices M/M: -0.4% v -0.2% prior; Y/Y: -0.1% v -0.4% prior
- (ES) Spain Q1 House PricesTOT Homes Q/Q: -6.6% v -1.4% prior; Y/Y: -14.3% v -12.8% prior
- (EU) ECB 100.0M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 917M prior; 72.4B parked in deposit facility vs. 103.0B prior
- (CH) Swiss May Producer & Import Prices M/M: -0.3% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: -0.2% v +0.1%e
- (NL) Netherlands Apr Retail Sales Y/Y: -0.6 v -5.3% prior
- (SE) Sweden May Average House Prices (SEK): 2.104 v 2.132M prior
- (PH) Philippines Central Bank (BSP) leaves Overnight Borrowing Rate unchanged at 3.50%, as expected
- (GR) Greece Q1 Unemployment Rate: 27.4% v 26.0% prior

Fixed Income:
- (IT) Italy Debt Agency (Tesoro) sells total 4.92B vs. 3.0-3.5B indicated range in 2016 and 2028 BTP Bonds

- Sold 3.415B vs. 2.5-3.5B indicated range in 2.25% May 2016 BTP; Avg Yield 2.38% v 1.92% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.34x v 1.34x prior
- Sold 1.5B vs. 1.0-1.5B indicated range in 4.75% Sept 2028 BTP; Avg Yield: 4.67% v 4.68% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.73x v 1.3x prior
- (IT) Italy Debt Agency (Tesoro) sold total 2.92 vs. 2.0-3.0B indicated range in 2018 CCTeu
- Sold 1.216B in Apr 2018 CCTeu; Avg Yield: 2.54% v 3.03% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.61x v 1.84x prior
- Sold 1.698B in Nov 2018 CCTeu; Avg Yield: 2.61% v 2.44% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.46x v 1.35x prior
- (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) sold total HUF55B in 2016, 2018 and 2023 Bonds at higher yields
- Sold HUF25B in 2016 bonds; Yield: 5.18% v 4.46% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.05x
- Sold HUF18B in 2018 bonds; Yield: 5.65% v 4.76% prior; Bid-to-cover: 3.51x
- Sold HUF12B in 2023 bonds; Yield: 6.14% v 5.26% prior; Bid-to-cover: 4.59x
- (UK) DMO sold 2.25B in 4.25% 2032 Gilts; Avg Yield: 3.004% v 2.661% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.45x v 2.12x prior; Tails: 0.4bps v 0.3bps prior

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***

***Equities***
FTSE 100 -1.1% at 6,229,
DAX -1.6% at 8,010, CAC-40 -0.90% at 3,758, IBEX-35 -1.4% at 8,008, FTSE MIB -0.40% at 15,965, SMI -1.1% at 7,576, S&P 500 Futures -0.40% at 1,603

- European equity markets are broadly lower, after Japan's Nikkei225 closed lower by over 6% amid the sharp move higher in the yen. Traders also focused on the resumption of trade in China following the 3-day Dragon Boat festival holiday, as the Shanghai Composite ended down over 2.5%. European banks are broadly lower, led by shares of RBS. Resource related firms are trading mixed, as commodity prices are broadly lower.

- UK movers [Home Retail -7% (Q1 Argos sales below ests), RBS -6% (resignation of CEO), Laura Ashley -6% (18-week sales declined), WH Smith -3% (reported decline in 14-week sales)]
- Germany movers [Rhoen-Klinikum +11% (shareholders voted to make it easier for firm to be taken over); ThyssenKrupp -4% (concerns related to Brazilian steel plant sale), Heidelberger Druck -2% (cautious comments about Q1), Software AG -2.5% (broker commentary)]
- France movers [France Telecom -1% (concerns related to CEO position)]
- Italy movers [Buzzi Unicem -4% (broker commentary)]

Speakers:
- ECB publishes Monthly Report reiterated the psot rate decision press conference from earlier this month
. ECB saw downside risks to the economy but pice stability outlook was broadly balanced. Accommodative policy should help foster economic recovery
- German Official commented that the Euro area would be the top discussion at the G8 meeting on June 17-18th in Ireland and would also talk about Japan economic policy. Germany seeking G8 commitment against trade protectionism and push for measures to fight tax evasion
- EU Commission confirmed it would file a complaint with the WTO on China specialized steel duties on imports
- German Bundesbank's Lautenschlaeger commented that leverage ratio in principle was a good idea but needed to wait several years (2-3) to evaluate US leverage ratio
- Russia President Putin budget speech sought to achieve stability and balance and gave the 3 months to draft budget strategy to 2030. He noted that higher taxes could not be the answer to pension reform
- Turkey PM Erdogan stated that he would not recognize a EU Parliament decision on a Turkey resolution
- Czech opposition party commented that recent police raid into govt offices was reason to call for a no-confidence vote. Czech Govt had no immediate comment on police raid and would issue statement later today
- Former BoE official Posen (ultra-dove) predicted MPC would do Fed-style forward guidance by Aug and saw Gilt buying QE by BoE on hold
- Japan Banking Association Chairman Kunibe commented that domestic economic recovery was becoming resilient. He also believed JPY currency would weaken against the USD. JPY currency and Japanese equities could be unstable for a while but long-term JGB yields were settling down. Current JGB market is different from sell-off in 2003
- Japan Cabinet Office (Govt) Jun Monthly Report raised its economic assessment for the second straight month. It noted that the domestic economy was picking up steadily compared to prior view that it was picking up slowly.
- Japan Vice Fin Min Yamaguchi reiterated stance that Govt was closely watching the Yen and stocks
- Japan Chief Cabinet Sec Suga reiterated that govt was watching markets closely and would continue to implement economic policy aimed at defeating inflation. Govt has complete faith in BOJ gov Kuroda. Stock markets will always have adjustment periods and not important not to fret over moves. JPY currency in better position compared to pre Abe govt
- Philippines Central Bank Gov Tetangco commented that it would ensure that market moves were not excessive and this included price action in FX. He added that inflation expectations continued to be well anchored. Following the decision to hold rates steady the Gov added that liquidity and bank lending were supporting growth. Hw saw inflation within target between 2013-15 period with upside inflation risks could come from power rate increases and sustained capital inflows

Currencies/Fixed Income:
- JPY strengthened to 2-month highs to test beyond the 94 handle before consolidating as equity markets remained volatile. The latest spat of risk aversion came with China returning to the market after being closed all week for holiday and react to last weekend dismal trade data components. Participants saw another sharp downturn in Japanese equity markets, which left the Nikkei in bear market territory and some 3500 points off its May 22nd high.
- Dealers were quite perplexed with the firm Euro over the course of the week. One keen dealer observed that Europeans were one of the largest investors in the emerging markets and believed the strength of the EUR reflected flows back to Europe. Dealers were looking to sell EUR/USD on the test of 1.34 but that level fell shy by 10 pips. Dealers were chasing the pair lower into the NY morning where it traded at 1.3330

- Political/In the Papers:
- (EU) ECB's Asmussen: Bank's pledge to do whatever it takes to defend the eurozone remains valid, the OMT has made the ECB the strongest player in the market; Notes that the phrase don't fight the Fed' can now be applied to the ECB.
- (DE) German Bundesbank's Weidmann: The Question is whether unlimited firepower is consistent with ECB Mandate; If OMT is limitless banks will have certainty ECB will buy
- (GR) EU said to indicate there is no chance for a new Greece debt haircut but other relief for Greece could be possible in 2014 - financial press
- (PT) Eurogroup to decide on delay on Portugal deficit deadline on June 21st- Dijsselbloem letter to Parliament
- (PT) IMF issues review of Portugal financial support plan: There is not much room to ease the targets; Calls on Portugal to move forward and progress on economic reforms
- (ES) Moody's: Spain pension proposal Credit Positive for sovereign
- (US) Fed's Plosser (hawk, non-voter): Not expecting the economy to be impacted very much by a small reduction in the pace of asset purchases
- (CN) China PBoC suspends open market operations to ease the liquidity squeeze- financial press
- (JP) Japan PM Abe and BoJ Gov Kuroda held a meeting ahead of next week's G8 summit to exchange opinions - financial press
- (JP) BoJ Gov Kuroda: Japan real economy is recovering steadily; Markets to settle to factor in positive economy moves.
- (JP) Bank of Japan (BoJ) Exec Dir Amamiya: Says if inflation is caused only through weak yen, the resulting "cost-push" inflation "could negatively affect a steady economic recovery".

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)
- 06:00 (IE) Ireland May CPI M/M: No est v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: No est v 0.5% prior
- 06:00 (IE) Ireland May CPI EU Harmonized M/M: No est v -0.1% prior; Y/Y: No est v 0.5% prior
- 06:00 (IL) Israel Q1 Current Account: No est v $71M prior
- 06:00 (EU) OECD G20 Q1 GDP Q/Q: No est v 0.6% prior
- 06:00 (TR) EU Parliament vote on Turkey resolution
- 06:00 (IS) Iceland to sell Bills
- 06:30 (US) Daily Libor Fixings
- 06:30 (DE) German SPD official Steinbrueck
- 06:30 (FI) Finland PM Katainen on export promotion
- 06:30 (EU) EU President Van Rompuy at conference
- 07:00 (RU) Russia Gold & Forex Reserve w/e Jun 7th: No est v $518.4B prior
- 08:00 (NL) Netherlands Fin Min Dijsselbloem discussing Ecofin with parliament
- 08:00 (BR) Brazil Central Bank's Hamilton
- 08:00 (BR) Brazil Apr Retail Sales M/M: +1.2%e v -0.1% prior; Y/Y: 3.4%e v 4.5% prior; Broad Retail Sales Y/Y: 9.1%e v 3.0% prior
- 08:00 (PL) Poland May CPI M/M: 0.1%e v 0.4% prior; Y/Y: 0.8%e v 0.8% prior

- 08:30 (EU) EU's Barroso with OECD chief Gurria in Brussels
- 08:30 (US) May Advance Retail Sales: 0.4%e v 0.1% prior; Retail Sales Less Autos: +0.3%e v -0.1% prior; Retail Sales Ex Auto & Gas: 0.3%e v 0.6% prior
- 08:30 (US) Initial Jobless Claims: 346Ke v 346K prior; Continuing Claims: 2.978Me v 2.952M prior
- 08:30 (US) May Import Price Index M/M: 0.0%e v -0.5% prior; Y/Y: -1.4%e v -2.6% prior

- 08:30 (CA) Canada Q1 Capacity Utilization Rate: 81.5%e v 80.7% prior
- 08:30 (CA) Canada Apr New Housing Price Index M/M: 0.1%e v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: 1.9%e v 2.0% prior
- 08:30 (US) Weekly USDA Net Export Sales
- 10:00 (US) Apr Business Inventories: 0.2%e v 0.0% prior
- 10:30 (CA) Bank of Canada releases Financial System Review
- 10:30 (US) Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventories
- 10:30 (BR) Brazil to sell 2014, 2015, 2017 and 2018 Bills
- 11:00 (US) Fed to purchase $2.75-3.50B in Notes
- 11:00 (US) Treasury 30-year TIPS announcement
- 11:30 (EU) ECB's Coeure (France) speaks in Berlin
- 12:00 (DE) German Chancellor Merkel at IHK Trade Chambers
- 12:00 (IS) Iceland May International Reserves (ISK): No est v 480B prior
- 13:00 (DE) ECB's Weidmann (Germany) "crisis economics" speech in Munich
- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell $13B in 30-Year Bonds Reopening
- 18:00 (CL) Chile Central Bank Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave Nominal Overnight Rate Target unchanged at 5.00%
- 19:00 (PE) Peru Central Bank Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave Reference Rate unchanged at 4.25%
- 19:50 (JP) Bank of Japan (BOJ) May 21-22 meeting minutes

 

 

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Tue 21 Nov
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15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias


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