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Friday June 14, 2013 - 10:31:50 GMT
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TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Sense of calm returns to markets

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Sense of calm returns to markets
Fri, 14 Jun 2013 5:41 AM EST

***Notes/Observations***
- Concerns about the winding down of the US Federal Reserve's bond purchases
eased
- Euro Working Group meets informally in Rome on to discuss how the European Stability Mechanism would help troubled lenders
- Japan: Diet passes further recovery measures. Asia shares rebounding from sharp declines
- Japan BOJ releases May 21-22 Meeting Minutes: Members agreed Japan economy has started picking up
- India's WPI falls 3 year low adds to mounting pressure on the central bank to cut interest rates next week
- S&P affirmed Spain's BBB- Sovereign Rating; Outlook Negative.

***Economic Data***
- (SG) Singapore Apr Retail Sales M/M: 5.3% v 3.2%e; Y/Y: -0.5% v -3.0%e; Retail Sales Ex Auto Y/Y: 0.2% v 1.9%e

- (RU) Russia Narrow Money Supply w/e Jun 10th (RUB): 7.68T v 7.61T prior
- (FI) Finland May CPI M/M: 0.0% v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: 1.6 v 1.5% prior
- (SE) Sweden May PES Unemployment Rate: 4.0% v 4.1%e
- (IN) India May Monthly Wholesale Prices (WPI) Y/Y: 4.7% v 4.9%e; falls 3 year low
- (HU) Hungary Apr Final Industrial Production M/M: 1.2% v 1.2% prelim; Y/Y: 2.9% v 2.9% prelim
- (ES) Spain Q1 Labour Costs Y/Y: -1.4% v -3.2% prior
- (FI) Finland Apr Current Account: -1.4B v -0.5B prior
- (EU) ECB 101M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 100M prior; 82.1B parked in deposit facility vs. 72.4B prior
- (NL) Netherlands Apr Trade Balance: 3.5B v 4.9B prior
- (AT) Austria May Consumer Price Index M/M: 0.2% v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: 2.3% v 1.9% prior
- (ES) Bank of Spain (BOS): May Spanish Banks ECB gross borrowings at 259.3B v 265.1B prior (9th straight decline)
- (ES) Spain Q1 Public Sector Debt to GDP q/q: 88.2% v 84.1% prior
- (IT) Bank of Italy Apr Public Finance Supplement: General Government Debt: 2.040T v 2.035T prior
- (UK) Apr Construction Output Y/Y: -1.1% v -4.1%e
- (EU) Euro Zone May CPI M/M: 0.1% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 1.4% v 1.4%e; CPI Core Y/Y: 1.2% v 1.2%e
- (EU) Euro Zone Q1 Employment Q/Q: -0.5% v -0.3% prior; Y/Y: -1.0% v -0.8% prior; Lowest Since 4Q 2005
- (RU) Russia May YTD Budget Level (RUB): +128.4B v -75.6B prior

Fixed Income:
- (ZA) South Africa sold total ZAR800M in 2025, 2038, 2050 I/L Bonds

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***

***Equities***
FTSE 100 +0.40% at 6,329,
DAX +0.50% at 8,133, CAC-40 +0.20% at 3,806, IBEX-35 +0.20% at 8,087, FTSE MIB -0.30% at 16,069, SMI +0.40% at 7,656, S&P 500 Futures -0.10% at 1,629

- Equity markets in Europe are mostly higher, tracking the gains seen in Asia. Government bond yields are broadly lower, as a US financial press report suggested that the Fed could play down the expectations in the markets related to higher short-term rates. Also, peripheral bond yields have moved lower, as S&P affirmed Spain's sovereign rating. European banks are trading mostly higher, while resource-related firms are broadly higher.

- UK movers [Rolls Royce +1.5% (broker commentary) Home Retail +1% (broker commentary)]
- Germany movers [Hochtief +6% (share buyback), Lanxess +3% (broker commentary) Allianz +0.50% (issued update on exposure to German floods)]
- France movers [Carrefour +1% (broker commentary) Zodiac +1% (Q3 sales rose y/y); Pernod-Ricard -1% (broker commentary)]
- Italy movers [Eni +0.50% (broker commentary); RCS MediaGroup -5% (priced share offering)]
- Belgium movers [Anheuser-Busch +1.5% (broker commentary)]

Speakers:
- S&P affirmed Spain's BBB- Sovereign Rating; Outlook Negative
. Spain's commitment to the implementation of a comprehensive fiscal and structural reform agenda remained strong. Outlook remained negative, reflecting the potential for a downgrade if political support for the current reform agenda waned, the budgetary position significantly deteriorated, or if eurozone policies faltered in stabilizing Spain's funding costs. S&P saw real GDP contracting by about 1.5% in 2013 before slowly recovering.
- EU's Rehn commented that lack of measures to keep budget deficit in check was Achilles' heel of Belgium and needed livable and workable internal stability pact
- EU's Almunia commented that European Commission recommendations on Spain were compatible with growth and the Commission did not have view on Spain extending bank bailout date. There was a need to analyze Spain's low VAT tax take. He reiterated EU had nothing to do with the closure of Greece's TV station ERT and believed Spain could create jobs even with sub-2% GDP growth
- Greece Fin Min Stournaras stated that a new broadcaster to open as soon as possible and would be less costly for taxpayers. He noted that Finance Ministry was legal successor to ERT
- Germany said to be prepared to take the EU Commission to court over the banking supervisory plan (SSM)
- Norway Central Bank survey noted that output growth over the past 3-months had slowed and expected continued moderate growth over the next 6-months
- France pension reform advisory panel suggested increasing contribution period to 44 years from 41.5 currently
- Poland Central Bank's Winieck believed it should refrain from further interest-rate cuts because their impact on growth remained minimal
- Czech Central bank gov Singer stated that he saw main risks coming from anti-inflationary side. Recent Q1 GDP data doesn't change his view of the economy
- Turkey Govt spokesperson stated that Istanbul's Gezi Park would remain a park until a final court decision was made. Gezi Park must immediately cease being a place where only a certain group of people can go and live 24 hours a day. Investigation started into excessive use of force against protesters; crimes would be punished according to the law
- Thailand Central Bank commented that capital flows would likely to remain volatile and might continue to affect financial markets, it would also closely monitoring rising household debt
- Bank of Korea (BoK)'s Chung: South Korean economic recovery was being delayed due to uncertainty both domestically and overseas in the aftermath of the financial crisis
- Hong Kong Chief Exec Lenug stated that the Govt would not cut back on property curbs as new supply has not materialized
- US considering setting up 'No Fly Zone' in Syria; possible near Jordan border

Currencies/Fixed Income:
- FX price action registered calm in trading on Friday as overall risk sentiment improved. Fears over Fed policy tapering eased over the past 24 hours after WSJ article suggested that Bernanke would use next week's meeting to stress that any move lower in the pace of QE won't mean the Fed was close to ending the program.
- The USD/JPY pair above the 95 handle after Japan PM Abe's growth plan was passed in which he promised more measures in July.. Markets had been concerned that the bureaucracy was stonewalling PM Abe's economic reforms. Abe did not provide any fresh details to initial announcement last week
- The USD was firmer against the major European pairs. The EUR/USD was probing the lower end of the 1.33 handle as the NY morning approached.

- Political/In the Papers:
- (EU) ECB's Draghi: The OMT is in line with the ECB's basic statutes and its mandate to preserve price stability, is needed to fix transmission of monetary policy; Higher German bond yields are an important sign of the normalization of conditions for German savers.
- (EU) ECB's Weidmann (Germany): Monetary policy will eventually lose its potential to keep prices stable if it is used for fiscal policy ends
- (EU) ECB's Mersch: Underlying price pressures are subdued, EMU undergoing a shallow recovery; sees no evidence of broad misalignments of asset prices; Reiterates the ECB is technically prepared to implement negative deposit rates, use of negative deposit rates would depend on the economy.
- (EU) ESM's Regling: The Troika structure is not a durable long term solution; Euro Zone nations must deal with bailout programs without the IMF in the long term
- (GR) Greece democratic left leader Kouvelis: There is no need for new elections, party is insisting that the ERT decision is overturned
- (GR) Fitch comments on Greece banking system; risks remain high but recap has provided some buffer
- (GR) Greece Finance Ministry is said to have requested state prosecutor investigate broadcaster ERT - financial press
- (CY) Cyprus President Anastasiades: Reports public TV station won't be closed (as Greece did)- Figaro; Wants to see capital controls lifted
- (IT) Italy Fin Min Saccomanni: Italy is not planning to conduct any further fiscal tightening programs this year; Government will wait for the German elections in the fall and for markets to stabilize before updating economic forecasts.
- (PT) IMF Portugal staff review finds that the public debt condition is very fragile and the political and social consensus is weak; Cannot guarantee that Portugal's debt is sustainable, unclear whether Portugal's debt issuance can achieve the scale that is necessary
- (NL) Netherlands Govt set to begin new talks on 6.0B in new austerity measures for 2014 - financial press; Unclear whether 6.0B would be enough to bring the fiscal deficit down to 3% of GDP
- (US) WSJ's Hilsenrath: Fed is likely to push back against market expectations that rate increases are coming sooner than previously believed
- (US) Treasury Sec Lew: US economy has shown that it is resilient, growing around 2%; The global economy needs US growth to be in 3-4% range.
- (CN) China Securities Journal front page editorial suggested that concerns about outflows could lead the PBoC to ease policy in H2
- (CN) China MOFCOM expects 2013 exports growth rate approx 7% y/y - Chinese press

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (US) Clinton Global Initiative America Annual Economic Meeting
- (BR) Brazil Apr Economic Activity Index M/M: 0.8%e v 0.7% prior; Y/Y: 6.9%e v 1.2% prior
- (PE) Peru Apr Economic Activity Index Y/Y: 7.1%e v 3.0% prior
- (PE) Peru May Unemployment Rate: No est v 5.6% prior
- (CO) Colombia Central Bank Monetary Policy Minutes
- 06:00 (UK) BOE's McCafferty in London
- 06:00 (IE) Ireland Apr Trade Balance: First Estimate: No est v 3.5B prior
- 06:00 (EU) ECB announces 3-Year LTRO Repayment
- 06:10 (UK) DMO to sell combined 2.5B in 1-month, 3-month and 6-month Bills
- 06:30 (US) Daily Libor Fixings
- 07:00 (DE) DIW President Fratzscher briefs on German Role in EU:
- 07:00 (FR) France President Hollande with Canada PM Harper in Paris
- 07:00 (IL) Israel May Consumer Prices M/M: 0.3%e v 0.4% prior; Y/Y: 1.1%e v 0.8% prior
- 07:00 (BR) Brazil Jun FGV Inflation IGP-10 M/M: +0.5%e v -0.1% prior
- 07:30 (IN) Weekly India Forex Reserves
- 08:00 (EU) EU President Van Rompuy in Geneva
- 08:00 (EU) EU's Barroso in Rome
- 08:00 (PL) Poland May Core Inflation M/M: 0.1%e v 0.6% prior; Y/Y: 1.2%e v 1.1% prior
- 08:00 (IS) Iceland May Unemployment Rate: No est v 4.9% prior
- 08:00 (PL) Poland May M3 Money Supply M/M: No est v 0.1% prior
- 08:30 (DE) German Fin Min Schaeuble in Rome
- 08:30 (US) May Producer Price Index M/M: +0.1%e v -0.7% prior; Y/Y: 1.4%e v 0.6% prior
- 08:30 (US) May PPI Ex Food & Energy M/M: +0.1%e v +0.1% prior; Y/Y: 1.7%e v 1.7% prior
- 08:30 (US) Q1 Current Account Balance: -$111.0Be v -$110.4B prior

- 08:30 (CA) Canada Apr Manufacturing Sales M/M: +0.3%e v -0.3% prior
- 09:00 (US) Apr Total Net TIC Flows: No est v $2.1B prior; Net Long Term TIC Flows: No est v -$13.5B prior
- 09:15 (US) May Industrial Production: +0.2%e v -0.5% prior; Capacity Utilization: 77.9%e v 77.8% prior; Manufacturing Production: +0.1%e v -0.4% prior
- 09:55 (US) Jun Preliminary University of Michigan Confidence: 84.5e v 84.5 prior

- 10:30 (DE) German Chancellor Merkel in talks with State ministers
- 11:00 IMF chief Lagarde on US economy
- 11:00 (US) Fed to purchase $1.25-1.75B in Notes
- 15:00 (AR) Argentina May Consumer Price Index M/M: 0.7%e v 0.7% prior; Y/Y: 10.4%e v 10.5% prior
- 15:00 (AR) Argentina May Wholesale Price Index M/M: No est v 0.9% prior; Y/Y: No est v 12.9% prior
- (IR) Iranian Presidential Election

 

 

 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Thu 16 Nov
01:30 AU- Employment
09:30 GB- Retail Sales
10:00 EZ- final HICP
14:15 US- Industrial Production
Fri 17 Nov
13:30 CA- Retail Sales, CPI
13:30 US- Housing Starts and Permits

Forex Trading Outlook


Potential Trading Opportunities


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH to Medium Wed -- 20:30 GMT AU- Employment data.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Thu -- 09:30 GMT GB- Retail Sales.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Mediun Thu -- 10:00 GMT EZ- final HICP. ECB targets inflation.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu -- NY Morning US- Import Prices, Philly Fed, Industrial, Production, NAHB. Usually not major movers.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH to Medium Fri -- 13:30 GMT CA- Retail Sales and CPI.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH to Medium Fri -- 13:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits.



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