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Focus on Japan, Nikkei and JPY today. Fed on Wednesday
|Focus on Japan, Nikkei and JPY today. Fed on Wednesday|
17 June 2013 00:00 gmt
CALENDAR Far East: No major data. Europe: No major data. North America: US- Empire PMI, NAHB Index
- HIGH IMPACT ITEMS: US- Empire PMI
- Japanese officials are getting a lesson about how difficult it can be to try to manipulate the markets. The Nikkei has plummeted and the JPY has strengthened. Both moved in the opposite directions of what was intended.
- The unexpected JPY strength has been alesson in why if you want to trade forex you need to watch the crosses and have a passing knowledge of the fundamentals can be helpful. Demand for JPY apparently came from an unexpected unwinding of emerging market (EM) investments by fund managers that had been financed in JPY. So once they liquidated their EM investments, they had to buy JPY to pay off the loans financing the trade. This is often referred to as a "carry trade".
- The major focus of the new week is likely to be the Fed policy decision and Bernanke press conference on Wednesday. Its not 100% certain, but Fed reporter Jon Hilsenrath, who often is a mouthpiece of the Fed, might have been a messenger to the markets telling them not to expect much from the central bank on Wednesday.
- Odds are the Bernanke press conference will be the most significant part of the Fed meeting, with the odds strongly favoring no policy changes. Note in the latest week that U.S. economic data generally showed improvement.
||JGB 0.81% -4bp
||Asia Close Higher|
||Bund 1.53% -3bp
||U.S. 2.13% -5bp
||U.S. Lower |
FX Trade Talk: What's moving markets-- Commentary, data. and data charts posted continuously on FOREX FORUM
John M. Bland, an author and a founding partner of Global-View.com, has been a corporate FX consultant for a major N.Y. bank, a forex trader for a major N.Y. institution, and an FX analyst for a blue chip Fed watching service.. John has an MBA in International Finance and an A.B. in Economics from the University of California at Berkeley.
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