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TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Germany ZEW Survey shows mixed results; UK inflation data mixed; Swiss Lower House rejects detailed debate over US tax agreement

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Germany ZEW Survey shows mixed results; UK inflation data mixed; Swiss Lower House rejects detailed debate over US tax agreement
Tue, 18 Jun 2013 5:40 AM EST

***Notes/Observations***
- US President Obama: Fed Chairman Bernanke has stayed on longer than he originally planned
- Fitch analyst Colquhoun: Fed likely to be the first major central bank to begin tightening
- FT's Harding: To focus on how Bernanke modifies reference to QE reduction in "next few meetings"
- RBA: AUD currency has fallen noticeably, though remained high given decline in exports
- Large banks in China have been urging the PBoC to inject more liquidity into the money market and lower the reserve-requirement ratio (RRR)
- European Car Registrations at fresh 20-year lows
- German ZEW Survey comes in mixed
- Swiss Parliament Lower House votes against detail debate on US agreement on tax evasion; complicated passage of the bill


***Economic Data***
- (JP) Japan Apr Final Industrial Production M/M: 0.9% v 1.7% prelim; Y/Y: -3.4% v -2.3% prelim; Capacity Utilization M/M: +1.6 v -0.8% prelim
- (EU) EU27 May New Car Registrations: -5.9 v +1.7% prior; 20-year low
- (JP) Japan May Final Machine Tool Orders Y/Y: -7.4% v -7.4% prelim
- (HU) Hungary Apr Avg Gross Wages Y/Y: 4.5% v 3.0%e
- (ZA) South Africa Q1 Non-Farm Payrolls Q/Q: 0.1% v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: % v 1.0% prior
- (EU) ECB 275M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 206M prior; 102.0B parked in deposit facility vs. 90.0B prior - Daily Eurosystem Liquidity Conditions
- (UK) May PPI Input M/M: -0.3% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: 2.2% v 2.5%e
- (UK) May PPI Output M/M: 0.0% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: 1.2% v 1.4%e
- (UK) May PPI Output Core M/M: 0.1% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 0.8% v 0.9%e
- (UK) May CPI M/M: 0.2% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 2.7% v 2.6%e ; Core CPI Y/Y: 2.2% v 2.1%e
- (UK) May RPI M/M: 0.2% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 3.1% v 3.1%e; RPI-X (ex-Mortgage Interest Payment) Y/Y: 3.1% v 3.1%e; Retail Price Index: 250.0 v 250.0e

- (UK) Apr ONS House Price Y/Y: 2.6% v 2.5%e
- (HK) Hong Kong May Unemployment Rate: 3.4% v 3.5%e
- (EU) Euro Zone Jun ZEW Economic Sentiment: 30.6 v 27.6 prior
- (DE) Germany Jun ZEW Economic Sentiment: 38.5 v 38.1e; Current Situation: 8.6v 9.5e

Fixed Income:
- (ES) Spain Debt Agency
(Tesoro) sold 5.04B vs. 4.0-5.0B indicated range in 6-Month and 12-Month Bills
- Sold 1.09B in 6-month Bills; Avg Yield: 0.821% v 0.492% prior; Bid-to-cover: 3.82x v 4.7x prior; Max Yield: 0.850% v 0.500%; Tail: 2.9bps v 0.8bps prior
- Sold 3.95B in 12-month Bills; Avg Yield: 1.395% v 0.994% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.1x v 2.0x prior; Max Yield 1.423% v 1.015% prior; Tail: 2.8bps v 2.1bps prior
- (CH) Switzerland sold CHF901.8M in 3-Month Bills; Avg Yield: -0.123% v -0.119% prior
- (EU) ECB allotted 102.0B in 7-Day Main Refinancing Tender at fixed 0.50% vs. 103.0B prior
- (GR) Greece Debt Agency (PDMA) sold 1.3B vs. 1.0B indicated in 13-week Bills; Avg Yield: 4.02% v 4.02% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.72x v 1.75x prior
- (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) sold HUF50B vs. HUF50B indicated in 3-month Bills; Avg Yield: 4.26% v 4.38% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.36x v 1.60x prior
- (BE) Belgium Debt Agency sold total 2.33B vs. 2.5B indicated in 3-month and 12-month Bills
- Sold 930M in 3-month Bills; Avg Yield: +0.014% v +0.018% prior; Bid-to-cover: 3.66x v 4.02x prior
- Sold 1.4B in 12-month Bills; Avg yield 0.142% v 0.056% prior; Bid-to-cover:2.07x v 2.08x prior

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***

***Equities***
FTSE 100 +0.50% at 6364
, DAX -0.20% at 8,199, CAC-40 -0.20% at 3,857, IBEX-35 +0.40% at 8,170, FTSE MIB +0.30% at 16,241, SMI -0.25% at 7,712, S&P 500 Futures +0.30% at 1,638

- Equity markets in Europe are trading mixed, as traders continue to continue to await Wednesday's US Fed decision and economic forecasts. Additionally, markets have focused on German ZEW data, comments out of ECB President Draghi and conditions in China's interbank market. European banks are mostly higher, led by UK-listed financials. Resource related firms are mixed, amid the declines being seen for commodity prices. European automakers are mostly lower, as May EU27 new car registrations hit the lowest level since the early 1990s.

- UK movers [Whitbread +3% (13-week sales rose), HSBC +1.5% (broker commentary), EasyJet +1.5% (confirmed plane order with Airbus); SDL -32% (profit warning), Andor Technology -18% (cautious outlook commentary), Chemring -9.5% (H1 results below ests, cut dividend), St. Ives -5% (17-week sales declined), Aggreko -2% (reaffirmed outlook)]
- Germany movers [Kabel Deutschland +3.5% (speculation related to bid from Liberty Global); BMW -1% (broker commentary, EU auto sales data)]
- Switzerland movers [Temenos +3.5% (share buyback), Adecco +1% (broker commentary)]
- The Netherlands movers [Imtech -3.5% (reported Q1 loss, update on fraud probe)]
- Denmark movers [Danske Bank -6.5% (ordered to set aside additional capital by regulators)]

Speakers:
- ECB's Draghi commented from Jerusalem that low interest rates did not prevent delivery of price stability and ECB could deploy many standard and non-standard measures if warranted.
He reiterated to monitor all data very closely and ready to act if needed. ECB monetary policy had regained steering capacity. He also reterated monetary policy to remain accommodative as long as possible as job conditions were weak and unemployment was too high
- ZEW Economists noted that German economy to improve rather slowly but will pick up speed in second half of 2013
- Swiss Parliament Lower House votes against detail debate on US agreement on tax evasion **Note: Rejection by lower house makes passage of the bill less likely. Bill now goes back to Upper House for deliberations on how to resolve the differences between the two houses)
- Spain Econ Min de Guindos noted that the global economy was at a delicate moment as policy shifts. Q2 GDP was seen around 0.0%
- UK Chancellor Osborne stated that bank needed to be strong supporters of the UK economy and taxpayers needed to get a return on bank bailout. No specific time for sale of shares yet, Mansion House speech would give more details
- Sweden Debt Office: Central gov't net borrowing require for 2013 at SEK183B, SEK18B above prior view. The increase in the borrowing requirement is mainly due to the fact that the new forecast includes SEK 10B more of on-lending to the Riksbank than the previous forecast
- Czech Central Bank Financial Stability Report noted that lenders were resilient to strong shocks and the overall financial sector was stable despite the economic slowdown. Main risk for the local economy was a deepening of the recession that could increase risks that borrowers might default on loans
- Czech Central Bank Gov Singer noted that bond yields might be unsustainably low and driven by flight to quality and reversal of trend could impact banking sector profitability
- Slovenia Bad Bank exec Nyberg commented that the first transfer of bad loans from State lenders to be completed by end of June
- Russia Fin Min Siluanov commented that Russia would accept a weakening of the RUB as long as its market driven
- Stats Norway Q2 Oil and Gas Investment Survey raised its 2013 oil and gas investment view as well as its exploration spending foirecast.
- ZEW's Fuest commented that German Constitutional Court wouldl stress importance of ECB acting within its mandate. He believed that the high Court had no powers over ECB and would not find that the ECB overstep its mandate
- EU Commission stated that it had begun technical discussions with China on solar panels and sought amicable accord in dispute

Currencies/Fixed Income:
- Fed watch remained the focus with taper on/off sentiment providing some volatility into Wed's decision. Risk-on gathered some pace in the session with rumors that China's PBoC might cut rates in the near future
- The EUR/USD was probing 4-month highs with dealers taking note of Draghi's comments. The ECB chief reiterated it would monitor all data very closely and ready to act if needed and do whatever it takes. The Euro shock off the weak EU27 car registrations. The EUR/USD tested the 1.34 handle but could not muster any momentum for a sustained break
- The USD/JPY hovered around the 95 handle despite the G8 backing for the Japanese policy stance
- AUD maintained a soft tone in the session on dovish RBA minutes which noted the currency could continue to fall in line with terms of trade and help balance economy.

- Political/In the Papers:
- (EU) S&P: Forecasts euro recovery to be delayed to 2014 vs H2 in 2013 - financial press; S&P forecasts 0.5% GDP contraction in 2013 in Europe.
- (EU) ECB's Weidmann (Germany): Reiterates that monetary policy cannot solve the crisis in Europe
- (GR) Greece state privatization fund (TAIPED) and the troika agree that the 2.6B revenue target from privatization will not be met in 2013 - Greek press
- (GR) Greece has 6 issues to resolve with troika - ekathimerini; Issues include tax mechanism, local banking system recapitalization, property tax, privatization, info on social security fund and civil servant layoffs.
- (GR) Greece's top administrative court ordered state broadcaster ERT to resume broadcasting; govt leaders seen reaching a compromise that will avoid early elections- press
- (GR) Greece PM Samaras said to have provided coalition partners with option to allow ERT to be restarted immediately with a temporary management; could readjust cabinet composition as part of agreement - financial press
- (IE) IMF: Sees positive signs emerging in Ireland; Economic recovery not well established; Fiscal policy on track for 2013 targets
- (US) At Fed meeting this week, Bernanke likely to indicate Fed is close to QE tapering - FT; The author of the article said that the Fed does not leak its indications to journalists and that the preview article simply reiterated the author's stance forecasting a September tapering.
- (US) Goldman Sachs: Bernanke to strike dovish tone at FOMC

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (US) Federal Reserve FOMC Meeting (day 1 of 2); Decision on Wed
- (DE) President Obama visits Berlin for Talks With Chancellor Merkel
- G-8 Summit Held in Northern Ireland continues
- (IL) Israel Jun Inflation Forecast: No est v 1.9% prior
- (IL) Israel May Money Supply Y/Y: No est v 9.3% prior
- 06:00 (TR) Turkey to sell Zero 2014 Bonds
- 06:30 (EU) ESM to sell 3.0B in 6-month Bills; Avg Yield: % v -0.007% prior; Bid-to-cover: x v 2.60x prior
- 06:30 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:00 (EU) ECB 7-day Term Deposit Tender to offset Govt Bond Purchases under SMP; to drain 195.0B
- 07:00 (TR) Turkey Central Bank Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave Benchmark Repo Rate unchanged at 4.50%; Leave Overnight Lending Rate unchanged at 6.50%; Overnight Borrowing Rate unchanged at 3.50%
- 07:00 (BR) Brazil Jun Final IGP-M Inflation: 0.7%e v 0.4% prelim
- 07:45 (US) Weekly ICSC Chain Store Sales
- 08:00 (PL) Poland May Avg Gross Wages M/M: -3.0%e v -0.1% prior; Y/Y: -2.7%e v 3.0% prior
- 08:00 (PL) Poland May Employment M/M: 0.0%e v -0.2% prior; Y/Y: -1.0%e v -1.0% prior
- 08:30 (US) May Consumer Price Index M/M: +0.2%e v -0.4% prior; Y/Y: 1.4%e v 1.1% prior
- 08:30 (US) May CPI Ex Food & Energy M/M: 0.2%e v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: 1.7%e v 1.7% prior

- 08:30 (US) May CPI NSA: 233.066e v 232.531 prior; CPI Core Index: 233.255e v 232.879 prior
- 08:30 (US) May Housing Starts: 950Ke v 853K prior; Building Permits: 975Ke v 1.005M prior (revised from 1.017K)
- 08:55 (US) Weekly Redbook Retail Sales
- 09:00 (EU) Weekly ECB Forex Reserves
- 09:00 (IT) ABI releases monthly outlook
- 10:00 (IL) Israel Central Bank Gov Fisher
- 10:00 (MX) Mexico Weekly International Reserves
- 11:00 (US) Fed to purchase $1.25-1.75B in Notes
- 11:00 (UR) Ukraine to sell Bills and Bonds
- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell $30B in 4-Week Bills
- 16:30 (US) Weekly API U.S. Crude Oil Inventories
- 17:00 (CO) Colombia Apr Trade Balance: $129.0Me v $285.7M prior; Imports CIF: No est v $4.5B prior
- 19:50 (JP) Japan May Total Merchandise Trade Balance: -1.2Te v -879.9B prior; Adjusted Merchandise Trade Balance: -890Be v -764.4B prior

 

 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:


Mon 20 Nov
14:00 EZ- Draghi Speech
15:00 US- Leading Indicators
Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- FOMC Minutes
Thu 23 Nov
US/JP- Holiday
All Day flash PMIs
13:30 CA- Retail Sales
Fri 24 Nov
All Day flash PMIs
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
US- Early Closes

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Potential Trading Opportunities


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 13:30 GMT US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing Statistic

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 23:30 GMT US- Yellen Speech. Early evening. Looking for anything on policy


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 13:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:00 GMT US- final University of Michigan Survey
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:30 GMT US- EIA Crude
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release


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