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Tuesday June 18, 2013 - 15:28:24 GMT
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TradeTheNews.com US Market Update: FOMC Meeting Begins

TradeTheNews.com US Market Update: FOMC Meeting Begins
Tue, 18 Jun 2013 11:07 AM EST

***Economic Data***
- (IL) Israel Jun Inflation Forecast: 2.0% v 1.9% prior
- (IL) Israel May Money Supply Y/Y: 10.8 v 8.8% prior
- (TR) Turkey Central Bank left Benchmark Repo Rate unchanged at 4.50% as expected; left all three key rates unchanged (first time since Sept)
- (BR) Brazil Jun Final IGP-M Inflation: 0.7% v 0.7%e
- (US) ICSC Chain Store Sales w/e Jun 14th: w/w +0.3%; Y/Y: +2.5%
- (PL) Poland May Avg Gross Wages M/M: -3.4% v -3.0%e; Y/Y: 2.3% v -2.7%e
- (PL) Poland May Employment M/M: 0.0% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: -0.9% v -1.0%e
- (RU) Russia May Industrial Production Y/Y: -1.4% v +0.6%e
- (US) May Consumer Price Index M/M: 0.1% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 1.4% v 1.4%e
- (US) May CPI Ex Food & Energy M/M: 0.2% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 1.7% v 1.7%e
- (US) May CPI NSA: 232.945 v 233.066e; CPI Core Index: 233.276 v 233.255e
- (US) May Housing Starts: 914K v 950Ke; Building Permits: 974K v 975Ke
- (US) Redbook Retail Sales w/e Jun 14th: +2.9% y/y, Jun MTD: -0.4% m/m; Jun YTD: +2.9% y/y
- (EU) Weekly ECB Forex Reserves: 220.4B v 219.2B prior

- Heightened volatility is again the order of the day as the FOMC convenes in Washington, DC for a two-day meeting. The DJIA has seen five straight days of triple-digit moves, for a level of volatility not seen since Fall 2011. As of writing, the DJIA is +0.63%, the S&P500 is +0.50% and the Nasdaq is 0.66%.

- Tomorrow's press conference by Fed Chairman Bernanke will be main event of the week, with markets expecting more details on the Fed's taper strategy. Market participants continue to marvel over the near 150-point drop in the DJIA yesterday afternoon after the FT published a preview for the event with the title "Fed likely to signal tapering move." Bernanke's future as chairman is also in focus after last night President Obama told Charlie Rose on PBS that Bernanke has stayed on longer than he originally planned and avoided directly answering whether or not he would reappoint Bernanke at the end of his term in Jan 2014.

- The euro continues to hold up very well against the dollar, with EUR/USD trading in a narrow range just below the 1.34 handle. Yen has softened a bit though the European and US trading hours. USD/JPY has back up toward the 96 handle. Cable has seen a sharp move, with the pound loosing the most against the dollar in three months overnight, with GBP/USD dropping as low as 1.5565 from 1.5700 coming into the European session.

- Shares of Hormel Foods are off nearly 5% this morning after the firm trimmed its FY13 earnings guidance, citing higher input costs and softer sales. Steel Dynamics offered a very weak preliminary view of its Q2 earnings. The firms said shipment volume would in fact be up q/q, although the company faces margin compression from pricing weakness. STLD is flat.

***Looking Ahead***
- 11:00 (US) Fed to purchase $1.25-1.75B in Notes
- 11:00 (UR) Ukraine to sell Bills and Bonds
- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell $30B in 4-Week Bills
- 16:30 (US) Weekly API U.S. Crude Oil Inventories
- 17:00 (CO) Colombia Apr Trade Balance: $129.0Me v $285.7M prior; Imports CIF: No est v $4.5B prior
- 19:50 (JP) Japan May Total Merchandise Trade Balance: -1.2Te v -879.9B prior; Adjusted Merchandise Trade Balance: -890Be v -764.4B prior

 

 

 

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15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
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13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
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15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- FOMC Minutes
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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release


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