Tuesday June 18, 2013 - 20:47:57 GMT
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Westpac Institutional Bank - www.westpac.co.nz
Forex - Westpac Morning Report
Morning Report Wednesday 19 June 2013
Global market sentiment: Markets appeared optimistic the Federal Reserveís QE programs would not be altered at the FOMC meeting currently in progress. A slightly disappointing set of US data (CPI, housing starts, building permits) supported that view, helping the S&P500 rise 0.8% to a June high.
Interest rates: US 10yr treasury bond yields are net unchanged, having risen from 2.17% to 2.22% during the London morning but then fully reversing following the US data. Australian 3yr government bonds yields followed that trajectory, rising from 2.55% to 2.58% and then reversing to 2.56%, while the 10yr yield rose from 3.40% to 3.46% and then fell to 3.42%.
Currencies: The US dollar index remained stuck in a four-day old range. EUR rose from 1.3326 to 1.3416 (four-month high), briefly interrupted by news Cyprus wants to renege on its bailout conditions. Improved German investor confidence was EUR-supportive. USD/JPY rose from 94.60 to 95.77 before settling around 95.20. AUD extended a two-day slide from 0.9520 to 0.9441 before rebounding to 0.9516 following the US data. NZD similarly pushed lower from 0.7998 to 0.7948 before rebounding to 0.8022. Spot whole milk powder rose 1.8% at the fortnightly auction. AUD/NZD fell from 1.1910 to 1.1830, the RBA minutes continuing to allow for further easing.
US CPI rose 0.1% in May after falls in March and April. The only real pressures were a just slightly above trend 0.2% rent gain and an outsized 2.2% rise in airfares. The core CPI rose 0.2%, holding the annual rate at 1.7%, its lowest in almost two years.
US housing starts rose 6.8% in May, while permits fell 3.1% (close to our 8% and Ė4% forecasts) with ongoing volatility in multiples the driving factor. Singles starts were up just 0.3% after falling nearly 9% in the previous two months, but singles permits rose 1.3% to a new cycle high. With singles permits running at an annualised pace of 622k compared to starts on 599k the downside to starts from here should be limited.
German ZEW analystsí economic sentiment rose from 36.4 to 38.5 in June, some way down on the 48+ readings in late Q1, but still indicative of optimism ahead for the economy. However the current index edged down from 8.9 to 8.6, its third straight, implying little if any acceleration in GDP growth is expected from Q1ís meagre 0.1% growth rate.
UK CPI accelerated from 2.4% yr to 2.7% yr in May, reversing most of Aprilís fall, with a soaring airfare gain of 22% (not seasonally adjusted, but a record jump), fuel and apparel prices the main factors at play. UK inflation has eluded the 2% target for about three and a half years now.
Event risk today: The FOMC announcement (Thu 6:00 NZT) will be the dayís (and monthís) market highlight. It will be scrutinised for any signs of a shift towards a tapering of QE, the Bernanke press conference plus the Fedís economic forecasts the most obvious signposts. Before that, in NZ thereís the Q1 current account to watch this morning, plus the NZDMOís announcement of the NZGB tender program for the coming quarter. Australia has a couple of leading indices.
NZD/USD 1 day: A bounce towards the 0.8020-0.8065 area is possible today, leading to a decline below 0.7950.
NZD/USD 1-3 month: We saw the first test of the critical 0.7800 support area last week. That test failed but we are watching for further attempts, any break below then targeting 0.7455. Long speculative positioning has been unwound but NZís economic data momentum is likely to slow during the next few months, helping the bearish case.
AUD/USD 1 day: A bounce towards 0.9550 is possible before a retest of 0.9445 below.
AUD/USD 1-3 month: The contracting range since July 2011 has broken down decisively, pointing towards 0.9200 during the next few months. The Australian data flow is unsupportive, and the RBA is likely to ease further to 2.0% by Q1 2014.
AUD/NZD 1 day: Grinding towards the multi-year low at 1.1820. Price action has been messy and 1-day predictions are of low confidence at present.
AUD/NZD 1-3 month: Once this consolidation period (which started on 29 May) is over, the trend decline should resume to below 1.1800. Relative fundamentals (e.g. RBA easing to 2.0% vs RBNZ stuck at 2.5%) favour the NZD medium term.
NZ 2yr swap yield 1 day: Taking the lead from US and Australian bond yields overnight (see above) it should open unchanged at 3.07%.
NZ 2yr swap yield 1-3 month: We expect the 3.10% resistance level to hold near term, while the 2.80% level should provide solid support in the event of any corrective declines if Fed QE reduction fears subside. Late-2013, though, we expect a rise above 3.20% based on NZís improving fundamentals and eventual RBNZ tightening in 2014.
Westpac Banking Corporation ABN 33 007 457 141 incorporated in Australia (NZ division). Information current as at 19 June 2013. All customers please note that this information has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Because of this you should, before acting on this information, consider its appropriateness, having regard to your objectives, financial situation or needs. Australian customers can obtain Westpacís
financial services guide by calling +612 9284 8372, visiting www.westpac.com.au or visiting any Westpac Branch. The information may contain material provided directly by third parties, and while such material is published with permission, Westpac accepts no responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of any such material. Except where contrary to law, Westpac intends by this notice to exclude liability for the information. The information is subject to change without
notice and Westpac is under no obligation to update the information or correct any inaccuracy which may become apparent at a later date. Westpac Banking Corporation is registered in England as a branch (branch number BR000106) and is authorised and regulated by The Financial Services Authority. Westpac Europe Limited is a company registered in England (number 05660023) and is authorised and regulated by The Financial Services Authority. © 2010 Westpac Banking Corporation. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The forecasts given in this document are predictive in character. Whilst every effort has been taken to ensure that the assumptions on which the forecasts are based are reasonable, the forecasts may be affected by incorrect assumptions or by known or unknown risks and uncertainties. The ultimate outcomes may differ substantially from these forecasts.
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