Wednesday June 19, 2013 - 03:38:14 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
Morning Briefing : 19-Jun-2013 -0336 GMT
Divergent moves in Equities. But not very bullish overall. There is a bearish/ consolidative undertone.
Dow (15318.23, +0.91%) has notched up solid gains, rising past 15300 on closing basis. Looks like it wants to rise towards 15600 now. And then maybe move sideways in a 15600-15000 range?
The Nikkei (13266.86, +2%, +260) is also up a good solid 2%, trading above 13200. If the gain is sustained, it might reduce the chances of a fall to 11700. The continued correction of the Oversold situation can bolster the Nikkei in the near term.
The rest of Asia-Pac is mixed, ranging from -1.6% (China) to +0.63% (Australia). The weakness in China is worrying and the Shanghai (2125) is in danger of falling towards 2100.
The Nifty (5813.60) dipped yesterday after Monday's bounce. It appears ranged between 5650-5950 for the next couple of weeks.
Commodities as a whole appear consolidative. Crude looks bullish.
Gold (1366) is trading near the lower end of our 1365-1425 range. More exact Support comes at 1354. We expect it to hold and produce a bounce back to 1400.
Brent Crude (106.01) is trading higher again and continues to look like it can rise towards 108. The WTI (98.61) is looking bullish for a rise towards 102+. The Gold/ Crude ratio continues to trend lower and could fall another 5.8% towards 13.00. Take a look at
Copper (3.1575) looks consolidative between 3.10-3.30 for some time now.
The Dollar Index (80.73) is consolidating after its fall over the month. Has 21-week MA Support at 80.45 and trendline Support near 79.95. The Euro (1.3385) remains below 1.34 as expected, so far, but could be gearing up for a rise towards 1.35. Crucial Resistance seen at 1.3450, though, on the 200-week MA. So, Dollar strength/ weakness is a 50-50 from here. Most likely depends on the QE tonight.
Dollar-Yen (95.31) rose to 95.76 yesterday, but faces crucial Resistance near current levels. A fresh fall towards 94.00 is possible if this holds. On the flip side, a rise past 95.90 can target 96.60-90.
The Pound (1.5625) fell to 1.5565 yesterday and seems to be rounding off now, retreating from the 1.5750-5800 Resistance region. Could the profit-taking in the Pound limit the Euro's upside as well? Might be. The Aussie (0.9478) looks like it might get Support above 0.9400. But needs to rise past 0.9500 to avoid a decline below 0.9400. Outlook uncertain near term.
Dollar-Rupee is in danger of rising towards 59.00-25. But, caution... the Dollar is getting Overbought again. Could see selling at higher levels.
The US 10-Yr (2.18%) remains below 2.20%. Crucial Resistance at 2.25% holding for now. All eyes on the FOMC tonight.
8:30 GMT or 14:00 IST UK BOE Minutes
...Expected 0-0-9 % ...Previous 0-0-9 %
23:30 GMT or 5:00 IST US FOMC Meeting
...Expected < 0.25 % ...Previous < 0.25 %
UK CPI Y/Y
...Actual 2.70 % ...Previous 2.40 %
US Core CPI (MoM)
...Actual 0.10 % ...Previous 0.05 %
US Housing Starts(Mln)
...Actual 914 K ...Previous 856 K
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