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Wednesday June 19, 2013 - 10:09:01 GMT
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| | Email EU Market Update: Risk appetite/aversion sentiment hinges on FOMC economic outlook EU Market Update: Risk appetite/aversion sentiment hinges on FOMC economic outlook
Wed, 19 Jun 2013 5:49 AM EST

- Japan exports rise at fastest rate in 2 years; May Trade deficit was narrower than expected, and both imports and exports registered double-digit y/y gain
- Worries over the health of the Chinese financial system continue to simmer; Moody's warned local banks face risk from local government financing vehicles.
- Sweden May Unemployment falls more than expected
- Fed policy decision and Bernanke press conference key focus today. Fed's forecasts seen as key to taper on/off sentiment.

***Economic Data***
- (JP) Japan May Nationwide Dept Store Sales Y/Y: +2.6% v -0.5% prior; Tokyo Dept Store Sales Y/Y: 5.1 v 2.1% prior
- (SE) Sweden Jun Consumer Confidence: 4.3 v 4.6e; Manufacturing Confidence: -12 v -10e; Economic Tendency Survey: 94,5 v 92.8e
- (DK) Denmark Q1 House Prices Q/Q: 0.1%; Y/Y: -0.3%
- (EU) ECB 249M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 275M prior; 91.6B parked in deposit facility vs. 102.0B prior - Daily Eurosystem Liquidity Conditions
- (SE) Sweden May Unemployment Rate: 8.2% v 8.8%e; Unemployment Rate Seasonally Adj: 7.9% v 8.4%e
- (ZA) South Africa May CPI (all items) M/M: -0.3% v -0.1%e; Y/Y: 5.6% v 5.9%e
- (ZA) South Africa Q1 Current Account (ZAR): -190.9B v -212.7Be; C/A to GDP ratio: -5.8% v -6.9%e
- (UK) Bank of England (BOE) Minutes: voted 6 to 3 to maintain Asset Purchase Target at 375B - (UK) Bank of England (BOE) Minutes: voted 9 to 0 (unanimous) to leave Interest Rates unchanged at 0.50%
- (CH) Swiss Jun Credit Suisse ZEW Expectations Survey: 2.2 v 2.2 prior
- (EU) Euro Zone Apr Construction Output M/M: +2.0 v -1.8% prior; Y/Y: -6.6 v -7.9% prior
- (MA) Malaysia May CPI Y/Y: 1.8% v 1.7%e

Fixed Income:
- (EU) ECB allotted $0.0 in 7-Day USD Liquidity Tender at fixed 0.60% vs. $0.0M prior
- (EU) ECB allotted $159M in 3-month USD Liquidity Tender at fixed 0.61% vs. $27M prior
- (SE) Sweden sold total SEK15B in 3-month and 6-month Bills
- (IN) India sold total INR120B vs. INR120B in 3-month and 6-month Bills
- (DE) Germany sold 4.009B in 1.5% 2023 Bunds; Avg Yield: 1.55% v 1.41% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.5x v 1.6x prior
- (PT) Portugal Debt Agency (IGCP) sold total 1.50B vs. 1.25-1.50B indicated range in 6-Month and 18-Month Bills
- Sold 450M in 6-month Bills; Avg Yield 1.041% v 0.811% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.5x v 1.8x prior
- Sold 1.05B in 18-month Bills; Avg Yield 1.603% v 1.506% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.1x v 2.1x prior
- (RU) Russia canceled 2028 OFZ bonds issuance set for today


FTSE 100 -0.10% at 6,365,
DAX +0.10% at 8,240, CAC-40 -0.30%, 3850, IBEX-35 -0.60% at 8,129, FTSE MIB -0.10% at 16,183, SMI +0.30% at 7,723, S&P 500 Futures +0.10% at 1,647

- Equity markets in Europe have moved between gains and losses as traders position for the later today US Fed decision and economic forecasts. Banks are mostly weaker, led by declines in shares of Santander. Resource related firms are mostly higher, tracking the gains in copper prices.

- UK movers [Micro Focus +8% (FY results above ests), Berkeley Group +3% (FY profits rose y/y); Imagination Technologies -5% (FY sales below ests), Lancashire Holdings -4.5% (broker commentary), Aggreko -3% (broker commentary), Daily Mail -1.5% (broker commentary)]
- Germany movers [GSW Immobilien -2.5% (no confidence vote related to CEO)]
- France movers [Alcatel-Lucent +5% (cost cutting plan), NicOx +3% (acquisition); Soitec -10% (rights offering)]
- Spain movers [FCC -4% (concerns related to Alpine unit)]
- Italy movers [Diasorin +2% (reaffirmed outlook)]
- The Netherland movers [Aegon -1% (cautious on ROE targets)]

- BOE Minutes were similar to prior months.
Majority members noted that earlier QE should still boost activity and its recovery was becoming more established. Economic developments in Britain had been generally positive in the past month. The BOE Minority saw members Miles, Fisher and King all voted for additional 25B in QE and added that the case for more QE remained compelling. Some said QE benefits likely small vs potential costs; more QE risks unwarranted narrowing risk premium. CPI will temporarily hit 3.0% and remain close to level during autumn (**In line with quarterly inflation report)
- IMF released its formal report on Spain and noted that the country's banking sector risked further loan losses as the economy contracted. Spain should further reform its labor market laws to create jobs. Nominal deficit targets should be flexible in the event growth falls short of expectations. It noted that Euro banking union especially important for Spain
- EU's Rehn commented that financial stability in Europe was anchored. Current account imbalances have been substantially reduced
- Sweden Fin Min Borg stated in an op-ed piece that the Govt wanted to continue with tax cuts. He added that Opposition Social Democrats plan to raise SEK30B in taxes would not create jobs
- Sweden Central Bank Dep Gov Ekholm commented that Riksbank could do more to help lower unemployment
- Think Tank NIER amended its forecasts on Sweden which raised 2013 and 2014 GDP view. It now saw 2013 growth at 1.5% from 1.3% and 2014 GDP to 2.5% from 2.3%. It also raised 2013 and 2014 Unemployment Rate forecasts to 8.3% from 8.2% prior and maintained end-2013 and end-2014 Repo Rate at 1.0%
- Cyprus Commerce Min Lakkotrypis: Cyprus capital controls need to be lifted
- Euro Zone official refuted Cyprus President Anastasiades plea for a complete revamp of his country's 10B bailout program, EU will not revise terms of Cyprus bailout conditions
- EU official stated that the upcoming Eurogroup to discuss Latvia's admission into the Eurozone and also discuss Cyprus capital controls and bank restructuring. It would also take stock on Greece's program and noted that Greek politics were becoming more important. ESM volume for direct recaps was an open issue and could be decided tomorrow in principle (Note: this has been reported to be around 60B)
- ESM Chief Regling noted that ESM bank recap was still under discussion and could be decised soon
- Unnamed PBoC official stated that banks were being starved of liquidity in order to make them more responsible about their lending

Currencies/Fixed Income:
- FX market price action was well contained under the shadow of today's FOMC policy outcome. The USD directional trend hinges on the outcome. Dealers seem keen on the Fed's forecasts for guidance on QE tapering. If economic forecast were raised then tapering could start before Sept. Conversely if US economic forecasts were lowered then tapering would be put off into late 2014.
The EUR/USD still unable to muster momentum for sustain runs above the 1.34 handle. The USD/JPY pair hovered around the 95 handle.
- The SEK currency was firmer as Swedish May unemployment came in well below expectations. EUR/SEK cross tested below 8.58 before consolidating.
- Worries over the health of the Chinese financial system continue to simmer and was a headwind for risk during the session. An unnamed PBoC official said that banks were being starved of liquidity in order to make them more responsible about their lending. The Far East session saw China 7-day repo rate rose by nearly 125bps to 8.05%, the highest level since Jan 2012. Hope did tick up that China might address the tight cash situation after CFETS spokesperson stated that China would extend today's Interbank bond trading by 30 minutes to 5:00pm local time but no reason was provided for the extension.

- Political/In the Papers:
- (GR) Greece PM Samaras and partners PASOK leader Evangelos Venizelos and Fotis Kouvelis of Democratic Left will meet Wednesday evening to try and come to an agreement on closing state broadcaster ERT - Greek press
- (GR) Greece Privatization Agency Chief: May speed up sale of main port in order to cover shortfalls in privatization program
- Greece's largest healthcare provider EOPYY is facing a 1.2B budget deficit
- (CY) Cyprus President Anastasiades has asked eurozone leaders for a complete revamp of his country's 10B bailout - FT; Claims Cyprus may not be able to fulfill the terms of the rescue because it has harmed the country's economy and banking system even more than expected.
- (IT) Italy bank association ABI: Italy loans to households & non-financial firms in May were down 3.1% y/y, Italy banking sector gross bad loans 133B
- (CN) China 7-day repo rate rose by nearly 125bps to 8.05%, the highest level since Jan 2012 - financial press
- (CN) China 1-yr rate swap rises by approx 10 bps to just under 4.1% (21-month high; 13th consecutive rise) - financial press
- (CN) China MoF sells 10-yr bonds, yield 3.50% v 3.38% in late May, bid to cover 1.43X

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (FI) Finland Fin Min Urpilainen with France President Hollande
- (AR) Argentina Jun Consumer Confidence: No est v 41.65 prior
- (IL) Israel May Leading 'S' Indicator M/M: No est v 0.2% prior
- 06:00 (PT) Portugal May Producer Prices M/M: No est v -0.4% prior; Y/Y: No est v 0.5% prior
- 06:00 (PL) Poland to sell Bonds
- 06:00 (RU) Russia to sell RUB10B in 2016 OFZ bonds
- 06:00 (PL) Poland to hold Exchange Offer Auction
- 06:30 (DE) President Obama with German Chancellor Merkel
- 06:30 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:00 (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e Jun 1th: No est v +5.0% prior
- 07:00 (UK) Prime Minister's Question Time in House of Commons
- 08:00 (IE) Ireland PM Kenny in Brussels
- 08:00 (PL) Poland May Sold Industrial Output M/M: -0.2%e v -2.3% prior; Y/Y: -1.8%e v +2.7% prior
- 08:00 (PL) Poland May Producer Prices M/M: +0.1%e v -0.6% prior; Y/Y: -2.5%e v -2.0% prior
- 08:30 (CA) Canada Apr Wholesale Sales M/M: 0.3%e v 0.3% prior
- 08:30 (FI)) ECB's Liikanen (Finland) speaks at the Brussels Economic Forum
- 08:45 (DE) German Fin Min Schaeuble
- 09:00 (BE) Belgium Jun Consumer Confidence: No est v -19 prior
- 09:00 (MX) Mexico Q1 Aggregate Supply & Demand: 1.0%e v 3.6% prior
- 10:30 (US) Weekly DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories
- 11:30 (BR) Brazil Central Bank Weekly Currency Flows
- 12:40 (CA) Bank of Canada Gov Poloz speech in Oakville, Ontario
- 14:00 (US) FOMC Rate Decision: Expected to leaves Interest Rates unchanged at 0.25%
- 14:00 (US) Fed releases Summary of Economic Projections
- 14:30 (US) Fed Chairman Bernanke holds Press Conference in Washington

- 15:00 (UK) Chancellor Osborne Mansion House speech
- 15:00 (AR) Argentina May Trade Balance: $1.3Be v $1.1B prior
- 21:45 (CN) China Jun HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI: 49.4e v 49.2 prior


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