User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Wednesday June 19, 2013 - 21:34:59 GMT
Westpac Institutional Bank -

Share This Story:
| | Email

Forex - Westpac Morning Report

Morning Report Thursday 20 June  2013


Market wrap
Global market sentiment: Markets were significantly surprised by the Fedís outlook shift and elaboration on tapering prospects. The FOMC statement said downside risks to the US economic outlook had diminished , and in Q&A Bernanke said the Fed may start tapering QE later this year and end it mid-2014. Equities fell, while US interest rates and the US dollar rose significantly. The S&P500 is currently down 1.0%.

Interest rates: US 10yr treasury bond yields broke sharply higher following the FOMC, from 2.20% to 2.33% - a 14-month high. Australian 3yr government bonds yields followed suit, rising from 2.58% to 2.66%, while the 10yr yield rose from 3.47% to 3.58% - a three-month high.

Currencies: The US dollar index surged by 1.2% following the FOMC. EUR plunged from 1.3417 to 1.3262. USD/JPY rose from 95.00 to 96.94. AUD fell from 0.9557 to 0.9319, retesting last weekís multi-year low. NZD fell from 0.8050 to 0.7870. AUD/NZD retested last weekís multi-year low of 1.1820.

Economic wrap
US FOMC decision hints at tapering, conditional on economy evolving in line with the Fedís forecasts. The statement itself noted that economic risks had diminished in the past three months, but said that asset purchases would continue at the previous pace of $85bn a month for now. However, Chairman Bernanke then said that asset purchases could start tapering in the second half of this year and end by mid-2014 - if the economic outlook evolves in line with the Fedís (marginally upgraded) forecasts. On this, weíd refer to the Fedís forecast record over the past few years: like the economics consensus, the Fed has repeatedly extrapolated turn of year strength in the jobs, survey and other activity data to year end and beyond. But the data slumped in mid 2010, 2011 and 2012 causing forecast misses (for GDP growth) of at least 1 ppt and prompting the Fed to embark on QE2, twist, QE3 and QE4. Over this four year period Westpac has correctly forecast year end growth not to materially exceed 2%. Our forecast for the end of 2013 is 1.9% for GDP (and 7.7% for unemployment) and if we are right and the Fed comes round to our view there will be no asset purchase tapering this year or well into next on the basis of sustained economic recovery.

Bank of England June minutes show 6:3 vote against further QE for the fifth month running with the outgoing Governor King in the minority again. Usefully, these minutes will provide a template against which to assess the apparent leanings of incoming Governor Carney when the July minutes are published.

Market outlooks
Event risk today: Todayís calendar is busy with important releases. NZ has Q1 GDP, a major market mover with consensus today at 0.5% qoq. The RBA reports fx transactions. China has manufacturing PMI (HSBC version). The Eurozone has PMIís, and the US releases jobless claims, PMI, home sales and a regional survey.

NZD/USD 1 day: The Fedís tapering guidance today has boosted the US dollar and hurt the NZD. Resistance is now at 0.7950 for a move towards 0.9960 during the days ahead.
NZD/USD 1-3 month: We saw the first test of the critical 0.7800 support area last week. That test failed but we are watching for further attempts, any break below then targeting 0.7455. Fed tapering expectations will remain a depressant. Long speculative positioning has been unwound but NZís economic data momentum is likely to slow during the next few months, helping the bearish case.
AUD/USD 1 day: The Fedís tapering guidance today has boosted the US dollar and hurt the AUD. A sustained break below 0.9325 (being tested as we write) argues for a move towards 0.9220 next.
AUD/USD 1-3 month: The contracting range since July 2011 has broken down decisively, pointing towards 0.9200 during the next few months. The Australian data flow is unsupportive, and the RBA is likely to ease further to 2.0% by Q1 2014.
AUD/NZD 1 day: The 1.1820 level is key Ė any break below this argues for another multi-cent fall.
AUD/NZD 1-3 month: This consolidation period (which started on 29 May) will be complete with a break below 1.1820, the trend decline then resuming towards 1.1500. Relative fundamentals (e.g. RBA easing to 2.0% vs RBNZ stuck at 2.5%) favour the NZD medium term.
NZ 2yr swap yield 1 day: Taking the lead from US and Australian bond yields overnight (see above) it should open up 4bp at 3.12%.
NZ 2yr swap yield 1-3 month: A sustained break above 3.10% argues for 3.18% next. While the next few months could see rates swing either way, by late-2013 we would expect to see the 2yr closer to 3.40% based on NZís improving fundamentals and eventual RBNZ tightening in 2014.





Westpac Banking Corporation ABN 33 007 457 141 incorporated in Australia (NZ division). Information current as at 20 June 2013. All customers please note that this information has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Because of this you should, before acting on this information, consider its appropriateness, having regard to your objectives, financial situation or needs. Australian customers can obtain Westpacís

financial services guide by calling +612 9284 8372, visiting or visiting any Westpac Branch. The information may contain material provided directly by third parties, and while such material is published with permission, Westpac accepts no responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of any such material. Except where contrary to law, Westpac intends by this notice to exclude liability for the information. The information is subject to change without

notice and Westpac is under no obligation to update the information or correct any inaccuracy which may become apparent at a later date. Westpac Banking Corporation is registered in England as a branch (branch number BR000106) and is authorised and regulated by The Financial Services Authority. Westpac Europe Limited is a company registered in England (number 05660023) and is authorised and regulated by The Financial Services Authority. © 2010 Westpac Banking Corporation. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The forecasts given in this document are predictive in character. Whilst every effort has been taken to ensure that the assumptions on which the forecasts are based are reasonable, the forecasts may be affected by incorrect assumptions or by known or unknown risks and uncertainties. The ultimate outcomes may differ substantially from these forecasts.



Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."

Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 15 Oct 2018
AA 12:30 US- Retail Sales
Tue 16 Oct 2018
AA 08:30 GB- Employment
A 09:00 DE- ZEW Survey
A 13:15 US- Industrial Production
Wed 17 Oct 2018
AA 08:30 GB- CPI
A 09:00 EZ- Final HICP
A 12:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
A 14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
A 14:30 US- EIA Crude
AA 18:00 US- Fed Policy Minutes
Thu 18 Oct 2018
A 1:30 AU- Employment
AA 08:30 GB- Retail Sales
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 19 OCt 2018
AA 12:30 CA- CPI/ Retail Sales

John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner,

Global-View Affiliate Program

We are starting an affiliate program to market some of our products.

Send me an email if you would be interested or if you know someone who would like to be an affiliate. Generous commissions payout for those accepted.

Put the word "affiliate" in the email subject line.

Contact us

Start trading with forex broker Markets Cube

Max McKegg's Daily Forex Trading Forecasts

Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.

Request a TRIAL of Max's Forex Service.


Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map

Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.



By using this website, you are agreeing to our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use, and Cookie Policy

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105