Thursday June 20, 2013 - 03:40:48 GMT
Share This Story
FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
Morning Briefing : 20-Jun-2013 -0339 GMT
Bernanke has said he'll "taper" by end-2013 and end QE by mid-2014.
The Dow (15112.19, -206.04, -1.35%) is down and may have a Double Top now. Some Support seen near 15000. But can fall to 14600 if that is broken.
All of Asia-Pacific is in the red. The Hang Seng is down the most, 2.35%. The Nikkei (13101.53, -143.69, -1.08%) is down as well, unable to benefit from the rise in Dollar-Yen.
The Nifty (5822.25) could fall towards 5775-5750.
Gold (1347) is trading below 1350. It seems to be breaking below its sideways range. As such, can fall towards 1335 and 1325. Target 1240 in the longer term.
Brent (105.70) could also come down towards 104-102 in the coming weeks, alongwith all other markets, unless it rises past 106 by early next week.
The Euro (1.3275) is down as the Resistance at 1.3400-50 has held well. Is vulnerable to a fall back towards 1.30 over the next 2-3 weeks. The Pound (1.5455) is down sharply as well, but might find some Support in the 1.5425-00 region. Dollar-Yen (96.65) has soared and could rise further towards 98 next week. The Dollar Index (81.31) has bounced sharply from the 80.50 Support pointed out yesterday.
The Aussie (0.9262) has seen a massive slide and may target 0.9175 now, the 38.2% retracement of the rise from 0.6007 (2008) to 1.1080 (2011).
The R-currencies have taken it on the chin, of course. Dollar-Rupee could well rise to 59.25-45 at least, as compared to its close near 58.71-72 yesterday. Losses for the Rupee beyond that cannot be ruled out.
The US 10-Yr Yield (2.36%) is up, past the 2.25% level and can target 2.60-75% in the coming weeks, possibly by end-July. The German-US 10-Yr Yield Spread (-0.80%) has broken below earlier long-term support at 2.65%. The immediate target now would be -0.87%, the low last seen in Apr-2010.
23:30 GMT or 5:00 IST US FOMC Meeting
...Expected < 0.25 % ...Previous < 0.25 %
7:30 GMT or 13:00 IST SNB Meeting
...Expected < 0.25 % ...Previous < 0.25%
14:00 GMT or 19:30 IST US Philifed Index
...Expected -0.4 ... Previous -5.2
14:00 GMT or 19:30 IST US Existing Home Sales (Mln)
...Expected 5010 Mln ...Previous 4970
UK BOE Minutes
...Actual 0-0-9 % ...Previous 0-0-9 %
Forex Trading News
Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research
headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports
provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex
market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing
other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the
headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest
forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less
recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines
and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports
from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."