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Thursday June 20, 2013 - 05:35:55 GMT
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TradeTheNews.com Asian Market Update: Equities slump on impending Fed taper expectations, soft China HSBC flash PMI; AUD at new 33-month lows***Economic Data*** - Source TradeTheNews.com

(CN) CHINA JUN HSBC FLASH MANUFACTURING PMI: 48.3 V 49.1E (9-month low; 2nd consecutive month of contraction) - (NZ) NEW ZEALAND Q1 GDP Q/Q: 0.3% V 0.5%E; Y/Y: 2.4% V 2.5%E - (AU) AUSTRALIA MAY RBA FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRANSACTIONS (A$): 490M V 382M PRIOR - (KR) SOUTH KOREA MAY DEPT STORE SALES Y/Y: +1.0% V -1.9% PRIOR; DISCOUNT STORE SALES Y/Y: -4.3% V -9.8% PRIOR - (JP) Japan investors sold net 402.5B in Foreign Bonds last week (5th straight week of net sells) vs sold net 386.9B prior week; Foreign Investors sold net 3.6B in Japan stocks last week vs bought net 113.6B in prior week ***Markets Snapshot (as of 03:30 GMT)*** - Nikkei225 -1.1% - S&P/ASX -2.5% - Kospi -1.7% - Shanghai Composite -1.4% - Hang Seng -2.4% - Jun S&P500 -0.4% at 1,616 - Aug gold -2.0% at $1,346/oz - Jul crude oil -1.0% at $97.30/brl ***Observations/Insights*** - Asian equity markets are down across the board, as acknowledgement of improved US economy from the Fed statement and less dovish than expected Bernanke press conference sent Treasury yields and US dollar sharply higher at the expense of stocks, metals, and high-beta FX. Bourses in China are once again feeling the most pain, hitting 6-month lows in Shanghai and 9-month lows in Hong Kong, as financial sector worries permeate an already shaky investment landscape while China policy makers continue to err on the side of contained financial crisis over heightened inflation. For the second time this week, the PBOC refrained from adding cash into the banking system, maintaining its tough stance not to support demand for liquidity. The 7-day repo rate rose by nearly 375bps to hit a record high of 12%. In addition, the China overnight repo rate continued to rise, approaching 25% during the morning session, the highest reading in more than ten years. - Moreover, Asia-Pacific risk-off flows are driven by another disappointing HSBC flash Manufacturing PMI data, remaining in contraction for the 2nd month and hitting a 9-month low of 48.3. AUD/USD hit fresh 33-month lows on the report below $0.9240 - now down over 3 big figures in just a 12-hr period - as Australian currency continues to underperform against NZD, EUR, and JPY. Even Nikkei225 - typically a beneficiary of JPY weakness - is down over 1%, despite USD/JPY spiking nearly 200pips above the 97 handle since the Fed statement. Stateside, afterhours report in the financial press saw 16 of 17 primary dealers now expecting the Fed to start tapering by end of the year, with the most likely increment seen at $20B on a monthly basis. ***Fixed Income/Commodities*** - (JP) BoJ offers to purchase 500B in 5-10yr, 500B in 3-5yr, 100B in 1-3yr govt debt - (CN) China PBOC auctions CNY40B in 6-mo MoF deposits, yield 6.5% - (CN) PBoC sells CNY2B in 3-month bills at 2.9089% - GLD: SPDR Gold Trust ETF daily holdings fall by 2.1 tons to 999.6 ton (lowest since 985.9 tons in Feb of 2009) ***Speakers/Political/In the Papers*** - (CN) China short-term pressure should not sway overall policy - Chinese press - (CN) Nomura: China policy and liquidity to remain tight after Premier Li's talk - (CN) China Academy of Social Sciences (CASS) Researcher Zhang: China should postpone plans to expand yuan trading band - China Daily - (CN) China govt requests banks to include external risks prevention into management - Chinese press - (CN) HSBC chief China economist Qu Hongbin: PBOC is "capable to boost liquidity through conducting reverse repurchase or a cut in the bank reserve requirement if it wants to" - Shanghai Daily - (CN) China PBoC will not add, drain funds through repos in today's session - financial press - (JP) Moody's: Japan PM Abe's economic plan is not a guarantee of revitalization - (AU) Australia RBA Quarterly Bulletin: Australia well placed to boost exports to emerging regions of Asia - (NZ) Westpac analysts: Slowdown in NZ GDP is a "genuine downside surprise relative to expectations, and therefore leans in the direction of later/fewer interest rate hikes and a lower NZD" - NZ press - (KR) Moody's: South Korea banking system outlook Stable - (TW) Standard Chartered cuts Taiwan 2013 GDP forecast to 3.0% y/y from 3.9%; Cuts 2013 inflation projection to 1.4% from 1.8% - (TH) Thai Fin Min requested that the central bank use reserves to manage bhat volatility, reiterates not worried about outflows - (US) Poll indicates 16 of 17 primary dealers expect Fed tapering by end of the year ***Equities*** - WPL.AU: Plan for a $1.2B purchase into the large Leviathan gas field in Israel looking increasingly uncertain as local govt is looking to limit the proportion of natural gas that can be exported from the country to 40% - AFR - FMG.AU: Cuts FY13 iron ore shipment target to 80M-82M tons (prior 82-84M tons); Sees FY14 total ore shipped 127-133M wmt, C1 cost/wmt at $38-40 - ANZ.AU: No decision made regarding job cuts in Melbourne; draft proposal has been sent - financial press - SNE: CEO Hirai: Board to consider proposal from Third Point's Loeb - annual shareholder meeting - Takashimaya 8233.JP: May report Q1 Op profit 6B +2% y/y, Rev 215B +4% y/y - Nikkei News - RHT: Reports Q1 $0.32 v $0.31e, R$363M v $362Me; Guides Q2 $0.32-0.33 v $0.33e, R$370-373M v $375Me (conf call); +3.4% afterhours - SSYS: Acquires Makerbot for 4.76M shares; valued at $403M; +2.8% afterhours - MU: Reports Q3 $0.04 v $0.03e, R$2.32B v $2.26Be; -1.7% afterhours - JBL: Reports Q3 $0.56 v $0.54e, R$4.47B v $4.51Be; to realign ops to reflect market conditions; -3.8% afterhours - Source TradeTheNews.com

 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:


Mon 20 Nov
14:00 EZ- Draghi Speech
15:00 US- Leading Indicators
Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- FOMC Minutes
Thu 23 Nov
US/JP- Holiday
All Day flash PMIs
13:30 CA- Retail Sales
Fri 24 Nov
All Day flash PMIs
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
US- Early Closes

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 13:30 GMT US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing Statistic

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 23:30 GMT US- Yellen Speech. Early evening. Looking for anything on policy


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 13:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:00 GMT US- final University of Michigan Survey
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:30 GMT US- EIA Crude
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release


John M. Bland, MBA
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