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TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Risk aversion sentiment gathers momentum in the aftermath of FOMC policy statement; global bond yields rise

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Risk aversion sentiment gathers momentum in the aftermath of FOMC policy statement; global bond yields rise
Thu, 20 Jun 2013 5:46 AM EST

***Notes/Observations***
- Fed confirms economy expanding strongly enough to begin tapering as long as economic conditions don't deteriorate. Markets immediately deteriorate.
- Emerging Market currencies under pressure; India's INR hits all time lows vs USD.
- China June HSBC flash manufacturing PMI registers a 9-month low with its second monthly contraction (comes in 48.3 v 49.1e)
- China overnight repo hits 10 year highs at 25% as cash crunch bites. Shanghai -2.8%.
- Singapore air index hits hazardous all time highs.''
- European PMI data mixed; Germany PMI Manufacturing registers it 3rd straight contraction
- UK May Retail Sales handily beats expectations

- Precious metals (Gold and Silver) at multi-year lows in fall out after FOMC policy statement
- Emerging markets yields climb as currencies falter
- Spain, French and UK auction results seen as soft; borrowing costs rise with lower bid-to-covers


***Economic Data***
- (JP) Japan May Supermarket Sales Y/Y: -1.2 v -1.9% prior
- (JP) Japan Apr Final Leading Index CI: 99.0 v 99.3 prelim; Coincident Index CI: 95.3 v 94.8 prelim
- (CH) Swiss May Trade Balance (CHF): 2.2B v 2.4Be; Real Exports M/M: +1.7 v -7.3% prior; Real Imports M/M: 0.9 v 0.0% prior
- (DE) Germany May Producer Prices M/M: -0.3% v -0.1%e; Y/Y: 0.2% v 0.3%e
- (FR) France Jun Advance PMI Manufacturing: 48.3 v 47.0e (16-month high); PMI Services: 46.5 v 44.8e (10-month high)
- (DK) Denmark May Retail Sales M/M: 0.3% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: -0.7 v -1.8% prior
- (DK) Denmark Jun Consumer Confidence Indicator: +3.4 v -2.0e
- (JP) Japan May Convenience Store Sales Y/Y: -1.2% v -2.6% prior
- (EU) ECB 6.54B borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 249M prior; 95.06B parked in deposit facility vs. 91.6B prior - Daily Eurosystem Liquidity Conditions
- (CH) Swiss National Bank (SNB) left its 3-Month Libor Target Rate unchanged at 0.00%, as expected and maintained the EUR/CHF at 1.2000
- (DE) Germany Jun Advance PMI Manufacturing: 48.7 v 49.9e (3rd straight monthly contraction); PMI Services: 51.3 v 50.0e
- (NL) Netherlands Jun Consumer Confidence: -36% v -32 prior
- (NL) Netherlands May Unemployment Rate: 8.3% v 8.2% prior
- (EU) Euro Zone Jun Advance PMI Manufacturing: 48.7 v 48.6e; PMI Services: 48.6 47.5e; PMI Composite: 48.9 48.1e
- (NO) Norway Central Bank (Norges) left Deposit Rates unchanged at 1.50%, as expected but lowered its Rate Path Outlook
- (TW) Taiwan May Export Orders Y/Y: -0.4% v -1.2%e
- (IT) Italy Apr Industrial Orders M/M: 0.6% v 1.8% prior; Y/Y: -1.6% v -10.0% prior
- (IT) Italy Apr Industrial Sales M/M: +0.6% v -0.9% prior; Y/Y: -7.2% v -7.6% prior
- (HK) Hong Kong May CPI Composite Index Y/Y: 3.9% v 3.9%e
- (UK) May Retail Sales Ex Auto Fuel M/M: 2.1% v 1.0%e; Y/Y: 2.1% v 0.5%e
- (UK) May Retail Sales w/Auto Fuel M/M: 2.1% v 0.8%e; Y/Y: 1.9% v 0.2%e

- (IT) Italy Apr Current Account: 854M v 1.9B prior

Fixed Income:
- (ES) Spain Debt Agency (Tesoro) sold total 4.02B vs. 3.0-4.0B indicated range in 2018, 2021 and 2023 bonds

- Sold 1.38B 4.1% July 2018 Bono; Avg yield 3.592% v 3.598% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.15x v 4.09x prior; Maximum Yield 3.638% v 3.619% prior; Tail: 3.6bps v 2.1bps prior
- Sold 1.12B in 5.5% 2021 Bonos; Avg Yield 4.353% v 4.477% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.96x v 2.06x prior; Max Yield 4.371% v 4.496% prior; Tail 1.8bps v 1.9bps prior
- Sold 1.52B in 4.40% 2023 bond; Avg Yield: 4.675% v 4.517% prior syndicate; Bid-to-cover: 1.84x v 2.52x prior; Max Yield: 4.818% v 4.536% prior; Tail: 5.3bps v 1.9bps
- (FR) France Debt Agency (AFT) sold total 7.43B vs. 6.5-7.5B indicated range in 2015 and 2018 bonds
- Sold 3.295B in new 0.25% Nov 2015 Oats; Avg Yield 0.50% (highest since Jun 2012) v 0.21% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.93x v 2.68x prior
- Sold 4.135B in 1.0% 2018 Oat; Avg Yield 1.24% (highest since Jun 2012) v 0.74% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.43x v 1.95x prior
- (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) sold HUF50B vs. HUF50B indicated in 12-month Bills; Avg Yield: 4.56% v 4.16% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.38x v 1.20x prior
- (UK) DMO sold 4.7B in 1.25% 2018 conventional Gilts; Avg Yield: 1.422% v 0.967% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.33x v 1.78x prior; Tail: 1.6bps v 0.4bps prior
- (IE) Ireland Debt Agency (NTMA) sold 500M vs. 500M indicated in 3-month Bills; Avg Yield: 0.200% v 0.129% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.9x v 3.6x prior

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***

***Equities***
FTSE 100 -2% at 6,217,
DAX -2.1% at 8,019, CAC-40 -2.1% at 3,759, IBEX-35 -1.8% at 7,951, FTSE MIB -1.6% at 15,794, SMI -1.4% at 7,627, S&P 500 Futures -0.70% at 1,611

- Equity markets in Europe are broadly lower, as Fed Chairman Bernanke commented on when the scale of the Fed's QE program could be reduced. Other factors which have weighed on markets include disappointing manufacturing PMI data (China and Germany), the continued rise in China' money market rates and wider emerging debt spreads. European banks are trading lower led by weakness in shares of Barclays, Credit Suisse, Intesa and SocGen. The sharp declines in commodity prices have weighed on resource related companies.

- UK movers [Ted Baker +12% (20-week sales rose by 33%), Ryanair +3% (raised growth target, special dividend), Ashtead +2% (Q4 profits rose y/y)]
- Germany movers [Delticom +1% (broker commentary); Talanx -4% (broker commentary), Brenntag -4% (ex-dividend), Krones -2% (ex-dividend)]
- France movers [Groupe Eurotunnel -5% (received negative ruling from EU Commission)]
- Switzerland movers [Richemont and Swatch are lower by over 3% (disappointing Swiss monthly watch exports)]

Speakers:
- PBoC met with its banking sector and informed them not expect liquidity help and stressed that it would NOT blink first in any serious confrontation

- Norway Central Bank noted that it's Rate Path Outlook saw its key rate to be kept lower than previously expected as prospects that it would take longer for inflation to move up towards the target. The NOK currency (krone) is an important variable for economy; reiterates view it has no target in FX
- Norway Central Bank Gov Olsen stated in his post rate decision press conference that ther was an equal chance of either hold or cut at its Sept policy meeting and added that the chance of a rate cut has increased. It did not consider a rate cut at today's meeting
- The Swiss National Bank (SNB) reiterated in its rate decision that would enforce EUR/CHF floor of 1.2000 with utmost determination and the CHF currency appreciation would have serious impact on economy and would compromise price stability. It also reiterated its view to be ready to take further measures if necessary. There was a risk imbalances in the mortgage and real estate markets will grow given sustained exceptionally low rate. It maintained its 2013 GDP growth between 1.0-1.5% and trimmed its 2013 inflation view to -0.3% from -0.2% prior
- Swiss National Bank (SNB) Financial Stability Report expected economic conditions in Switzerland to improve over the next 12-months. It saw risk of imbalances in property market remains (might take action if needed). It would regularly look at whether an adjustment of the countercyclical capital buffer was required.
- SNB President Jordan stated in his post rate decision press conference that there were no signs of a lasting export revival and saw weakness in Q2 Swiss growth. SNB faced major challenges on gains in CHF (Franc); Franc was flat since start of 2013 on trade-weighted basis. Question of removal of EUR/CHF floor was still far away; could not answer how any move would be communicated
- SNB Danthine noted that Swiss banks needed to assess the risks of mortgage lending
- SNB Zurbruegg noted that uncertainty was dominating the markets
- BoE stated that 5 of 8 banks fell short on capital at end of 2012 and had aggregate capital shortfall of 27.1B at end of 2012. Five banks announced plans to raise. After these actions four banks will still have shortfalls with the deadline for capital action being H1 2014. Barclays and Nationwide must come up with plan to reach 3% leverage by end-June
- Bank of Spain Gov Linde commented that Spain's 2nd recession impact was very negative for jobs but did saw possible growth in Q3. EU delay to cut deficit would soften the impact on growth as had mostly cut the deficit through spending cuts
- Greece may get Q3 & Q4 bailout tranches early if it meets next inspection, this would provide funding through mid-2014 -
- German Fin Min Schaeuble commented that early 2013 tax revenues were lower than hoped but expected to even out later this year. He added that he never said he would stay on as legislature in the next govt
- Bundesbank Dombret reiterated that he supported ESM direct bank recapitalization as a last resort
- German Debt Chief Deimer: Germany received interest for Federal-State bonds
- German IFW think tank cut its Germany GDP forecast for 2013 to 0.5% from 0.6%; raised 2014 forecast to 1.8% from 1.5
- Italy PM Letta: Concerned about Swiss-US relations regarding tax issues
- Hungary Central Bank's Cinkotai stated that it was prepared to take action if financial market environment was to fundamentally reverse, Could be cause for concern if FED was to abruptly withdraw its asset purchases which could lead to rising govt bond yields and HUF currency weaken
- Brazil Central Bank Gov Tombini: Prepared to raise interest rates further to fight inflation. He noted that the risk of credit bubble was not the same as 2008
- Philippine Central Bank Gov Tetangco: To closely monitor domestic and global developments to gauge whether to adjust its policy. To maintain strategic presence in currency markets amid volatility
- India Chief Econ Adviser Rajan commented that the RBI would take appropriate steps on INR currency (Rupee) and reduce volatility
- Goldman Sachs analyst commented that China was strengthens efforts to curb financial risks and the tighter liquidity was due to PBoC measures to reduce financial risks. Tighter control on interbank business and closer scrutiny of fixed income trading suggested orchestrated attempt to fix holes in financial system.
- Japan LDP election platform: Aims to halve primary deficit by FY15
- Japan Vice Fin Min Yamaguchi: No extra budget planned for now
- India's central bank (RBI) said to begin to parking gov't cash balance with banks through overnight auctions

Currencies/Fixed Income:
- Risk aversion gathered momentum in the aftermath of FOMC policy statement and was reinforced after China HSBC preliminary manufacturing PMI hit a nine-month low. The cash crunch in China unlikely to get any reprieve after PBoC met with banks and informed them not expect liquidity help.
- The USD exhibited strength in the aftermath of Wed's FOMC policy statement which raised the potential for QE tapering later this year if data continued to improve.
- The EUR/USD was at multi-week lows as it tested the 1.3200 level in the session while the USD/JPY tested above the 98.00 level. The AUD/USD hit its lowest point since September 2010
- The GBP did benefit from better retail sales data. The GBP/USD rebounded from 1.5415 to test above 1.5470 in the aftermath but was still slightly weaker from its Far East opening level's
- The NOK currency (krone) withered after the Norway Central Bank hinted that its next move could be a cut. The EUR/NOK fell over 900 pips in the session after the Norges rate decision and commentary.
- Emerging markets bore the brunt of the change in risk appetite as their respective bond yields surged and currencies weakened. India Central Bank (RBI) said to have intervened in FX market around 59.90 area after the rupee hit fresh record lows. Polish zloty sank to a one-year low against the euro as the cross approached 4.35 area
. The stronger greenback weighed against commodities. Gold and silver prices hit their lowest points since 2010. Spot gold dipped belowg $1,300/oz while Silver tested under $20/oz

- Political/In the Papers:
Fed Meeting:
- FOMC held Fed Funds Target at 0.25%; to continue to purchase $85B in QE
Vote 10-2 (Fed's George and Fed's Bullard were the dissenters); Bullard believed that the Committee should signal more strongly its willingness to defend its inflation goal in light of recent low inflation readings; Committee sees the downside risks to the outlook for the economy and the labor market as having diminished since the fall.
- (US) Fed Chairman Bernanke: If forecasts hold, anticipate Fed will moderate QE later in 2013. If forecasts hold, QE will end by the middle of 2014; 7% unemployment is consistent with the FOMC consensus belief that would be enough improvement in the labor market to end purchases [current FOMC projections suggest this will be sometime in the middle of 2014].
- Fed FOMC Forecasts: revised 2013 GDP est to 2.3-2.6% from 2.3-2.8% prior, slightly raised 2014 GDP est, lowered 2013 and 2014 unemployment forecasts; cut 2013 and 2014 core PCE inflation forecasts

- (EU) Draft EU draft document suggests ESM recapitalization limit has been set at 50-70B, limit can be reviewed by ESM officials if more funding is needed - financial press
-(EU) ECB's Liikanen (Finland): Would like to see bail-ins by 2015 not 2018- comments from Brussels Economic Forum
- (EU) EU to seek an agreement with national govts to toughen punishment for benchmark rigging in the wake of the Libor scandal - financial press
- (GR) EU spokesperson: Troika mission to Greece to pause for technical work; discussions to resume at the end of June
- (GR) Greece may get Q3 & Q4 bailout tranches early if it meets next inspection, this would provide funding through mid-2014 - ekathimerini; If disbursed early total payment would be 8.1B.
- (GR) Greece's Venizelos notes political leaders will be meeting again on Thursday to address differences in views on the ERT issue - press
- (CY) Cyprus Govt official responds to reports Cyprus was seeking a different bailout, notes that Cyprus is fully committed to applying the terms of the previous EU/IMF bailout
- (NL) Netherlands Govt set to announce 6.0B in new austerity measures in Aug - financial press
- (NL) Moody's: Netherlands forecast for larger deficit is Credit Negative
- (UK) Prudential Regulation Authority to unveil 26B in capital holes at eight banks - FT; Authority belives RBS needs 10-12B, Lloyds needs 8-9B, Barclays needs 3-5B; HSBC, Standard Chartered, Santander seen receiving clean bill of health; **Note: In March, a report by the BoE's financial policy committee (FPC) said that banks had a capital shortfall of about 25B at the end of 2012.
- (UK) BoE Gov King: Recent bond yield rise not sign return to normality
- (UK) Chancellor Osborne Mansion House speech: UK's RBS stake sale is some way off; should have been broken up in 2008; decision to come sometime in the autumn; Lloyd sale actively considered.


**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (EU) Eurogroup meeting in Luxembourg
- 06:00 (UK) Jun CBI Industrial Trends Total Orders: -12e v -20 prior; Selling Prices: 4e v 4 prior
- 06:00 (IE) Ireland May PPI M/M: No est v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: No st v 1.9% prior
- 06:00 EU) OECD Q1 Labor Costs: No est v +1.1% prior
- 06:00 (FR) France Debt Agency (AFT) to sell 1.0-1.5B in I/L 2016, 2024 and 2027 Notes/bonds
- 06:30 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:00 (RU) Russia Gold & Forex Reserve w/e Jun 14th: No est v $515.8B prior
- 08:00 (BR) Brazil May Unemployment Rate: 5.8%e v 5.8% prior
- 08:00 (PL) Poland Central bank (NBP) Minutes
- 08:00 (RO) Romania to sell RON300 Bonds
- 08:30 (US) Initial Jobless Claims: 340Ke v 334K prior; Continuing Claims: 2.954Me v 2.973M prior
- 08:30 (US) USDA Net Export Sales
- 08:58 (US) Jun Preliminary Markit US PMI Manufacturing: 52.7e v 52.3 prior
- 09:00 (MX) Mexico Apr Retail Sales: +1.0%e v -2.4% prior
- 09:00 Meeting of euro zone finance ministers (Ecofin) in Luxembourg.
- 09:00 (EU) EU Parliament vote on Hungary resolution for Excessive Deficit Exit (EDP)
- 09:30 (IT) Italy PM Letta with Belgium PM Di Rupo in Rome
- 10:00 (US) Jun Philadelphia Fed: -1.0e v -5.2 prior
- 10:00 (US) May Existing Home Sales: 5.00Me v 4.97M prior
- 10:00 (US) May Leading Indicators: 0.2%e v 0.6% prior
- 10:00 (EU) Euro Zone Jun Advance Consumer Confidence: -21.5e v -21.9 prior

- 10:00 (US) API Monthly Statistical Report
- 10:30 (US) Weekly EIA Natural Gas Storage Inventories
- 10:30 (BR) Brazil to Sell 2013, 2015 and 2017 Bills
- 10:30 (BR) Brazil to sell Fixed-rate 2019 and 2023 bonds
- 11:00 (US) Treasury Note announcement
- 11:00 (US) Fed to purchase $2.75-3.50B in Notes
- 12:00 (EU) EU's Barroso with Austria PM Faymann at Vienna conference
- 12:00 (CO) Colombia Q1 GDP Q/Q: No est v 1.8% prior; Y/Y: No est v 3.1% prior
- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell $7.0B in 30-Year TIPS Reopening

 

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Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
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15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- FOMC Minutes
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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias


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