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Thursday June 20, 2013 - 15:46:30 GMT
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| | Email US Market Update: FOMC Hangover and China Issues Roil Global Markes US Market Update: FOMC Hangover and China Issues Roil Global Markes
Thu, 20 Jun 2013 11:28 AM EST

***Economic Data***
- (UK) Jun CBI Industrial Trends Total Orders: -18 v -12e; Selling Prices: 3 v 4e
- (IE) Ireland May PPI M/M: 0.6% v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: 1.9% v 1.9% prior
- (EU) OECD Q1 Labor Costs: -0.1% v +1.1% prior
- (RU) Russia Gold & Forex Reserve w/e Jun 14th: $518.4B v $515.8B prior
- (BR) Brazil May Unemployment Rate: 5.8% v 5.8%e
- (RU) Russia May Real Retail Sales M/M: 2.1% v 2.8%e; Y/Y: 2.9% v 3.6%e
- (RU) Russia May Unemployment Rate: 5.2% v 5.4%e
- (RU) Russia May Disposable Income: -1.3% v +6.5%e
- (RU) Russia May Real Wages Y/Y: 5.7% v 3.9%e
- (RU) Russia May Investment in Productive Capacity: +0.4% v -1.2%e
- (US) Initial Jobless Claims: 354K v 340Ke; Continuing Claims: 2.951M v 2.954Me
- (US) Jun Preliminary Markit US PMI Manufacturing: 52.2 v 52.7e
- (MX) Mexico Apr Retail Sales: 2.5% v 1.0%e
- (US) Jun Philadelphia Fed: +12.5 v -2.0e
- (US) May Existing Home Sales: 5.18M v 5.00Me
- (US) May Leading Indicators: 0.1% v 0.2%e
- (EU) Euro Zone Jun Advance Consumer Confidence: -18.8 v -21.5e
- (US) Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventories: +91 bcf v +87-92 bcf expected range

- Nearly every asset class on earth has seen striking moves in the wake of the FOMC decision and Chairman Bernanke's remarks on Wednesday. Asian equity markets closed at their lows as weak Chinese data compounded the less dovish Fed and European markets are looking to close at the lows. In the US, the DJIA, S&P500 and the Nasdaq are down 1.6.

- On Wednesday Bernanke said very little that was new, reiterated that tapering QE would most likely happen in 2013 (economic data permitting) and seemed to suggest that the recent surge in UST yields was a good thing. Markets were expecting a more dovish tone. Yesterday the yield on the 10-year benchmark note closed at 2.35%, and topped out at 2.47% earlier this morning before dropping back below 2.40%, still near two-year highs. Yields on every other class of developed world and emerging market debt are moving higher. Spot gold has dropped 5.7%, briefly dropping below $1,300.

- Dollar strength is hitting the FX markets like a wrecking ball. EUR/USD has found support around 1.3180 and USD/JPY has weakened to around 98.25. Numerous emerging markets took action to stem their currency weakness. Brazil, India and Turkey as intervened in some manner to combat FX depreciation.

- There is widespread nervousness about the worsening situation in China's banking system. Short-term China money market rates surged to more than 10% overnight, a record high and nearly triple the level just two weeks ago after the PBoC stated that it would not inject funds in order to ease liquidity conditions. A PBoC official said banks were being starved of liquidity in order to make them more responsible about their lending, and another highlighted that the PBoC will not blink first in any confrontation with the banks. There was chatter regarding a major bank default in the early morning hours after the Bank of Communications commented that the PBoC had used "targeted liquidity operations" to supply 50b yuan to one unnamed bank.

- Both the June Philly Fed Survey and the May Exisiting Home Sales reports were much better than expected. Note that an NAR economist warned that given the very strong data, "home price growth is too fast and only additional supply from new homebuilding can moderate future price growth."

- FedEx is down 5% this morning, giving up all its gains from yesterday and more. Two tier one firms - Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan - cut ratings on the name overnight. JPMorgan warned that the erosion in earning in the key Express unit would continue through FY14.

- Shares of Gamestop are up nearly 6% after Microsoft relented and said it would not limit sharing or resale of Xbox One games and would drop the requirement for "always on" internet connection.

- 3D printing firm Stratasys acquired upstart competitor Makerbot in an all-stock deal valued at $403M.
MakerBot has helped develop the desktop 3D printing market and has built the largest installed base of 3D printers in the category by making 3D printers highly accessible. 3-D Systems is down nearly 6% on the news.

***Looking Ahead***
- (EU) EU Parliament vote on Hungary resolution for Excessive Deficit Exit (EDP)
- 12:00 (EU) EU's Barroso with Austria PM Faymann at Vienna conference
- 12:00 (CO) Colombia Q1 GDP Q/Q: No est v 1.8% prior; Y/Y: No est v 3.1% prior
- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell $7.0B in 30-Year TIPS Reopening
- 14:30 (EU) Eurogroup press conference


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