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TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Markets maintain calm as Greece faces another political storm

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Markets maintain calm as Greece faces another political storm
Fri, 21 Jun 2013 5:31 AM EST

***Notes/Observations***
- Eurogroup chief Disselbloem: Euro Zone Ministers reach agreement on ESM bank recaps; retroactive direct bank recaps would be allowed on a case-by-case basis; Confirmed 60B ceiling for bank rescues and could can be changed by if needed
- IMF said to be prepared to suspend aid payments to Greece by the end of next month unless EU leaders plug a 3-4B shortfall in the rescue program; EU remain confident that Greece will receive next aid payment
- Greece Govt hopes that Coalition remains intact following disagreement on State broadcaster closing; Greece PM Samaras has reportedly called emergency cabinet meeting after democratic left leader Kouvelis recommends pulling out ministers from the Govt
-China's 7-day Repo rate lower by almost 400bps 378bp to under 8% but PBoC reiterates it would not aid banks with liquidity; Reports related to move by PBoC to ease liquidity shortage said to have been not accurate


***Economic Data***
- (RU) Russia Narrow Money Supply w/e Jun 17th (RUB): 7.81T v 7.68T prior
- (FR) France Q1 Final Wages Q/Q: 0.7% v 0.7%e
- (CH) Swiss May M3 Money Supply Y/Y: 9.7 v 10.3% prior
- (EU) ECB 3.6B borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 6.5B prior; 77.9B parked in deposit facility vs. 95.1B prior - Daily Eurosystem Liquidity Conditions
- (NL) Netherlands May House Price Index M/M: -1.2% v -1.4% prior; Y/Y: -82 v -7.6% prior
- (NL) Netherlands Apr Consumer Spending Y/Y: -1.9 v -0.7% prior
- (IT) Italy May Hourly Wages M/M: 0.0% v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: 1.4% v 1.4% prior
- (EU) Euro-Zone Apr Current Account Seasonally Adj: 19.5B v 25.9B prior; Current Account unadj: 15.3B v 24.9B prior
- (UK) May Public Finances (PSNCR): +3.1B v -2.5Be; PSNB ex Interventions: 8.8B v 12.6Be; Public Sector Net Borrowing: 10.5B v 13.5Be
- (IS) Iceland May Wage Index M/M: 0.0% v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: 5.5% v 5.8% prior

Fixed Income:
- (IN) India sold total INR150B vs. INR150B indicated in 2019, 2023, 2030 and 2041 bonds

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***

***Equities***
FTSE 100 +0.80% at 6,209,
DAX +0.30% at 7,953, CAC-40 +0.90% at 3,731, IBEX-35 +0.30% at 7,841, FTSE MIB +0.70% at 15,655, SMI +0.90% at 7,567, S&P 500 +0.70% at 1,594

- Following the sharp losses seen on Thursday's session, most European equity markets are slightly higher, tracking the gains on the Nikkei225. However, concerns related to Greece's coalition government have weighed on the Athens Stock Exchange. Banks are trading mixed, amid underperformance in the French banking sector. Shares of RBS have also lagged. Resource related shares are mixed, despite the recovery seen for commodity prices. DAX and FTSE 100 options are due to expire on today's session.

- UK movers [Flybe +9% (reported rise in FY sales), BT +1% (broker commentary)]
- Germany movers [Solarworld +6% (CFO comments, EU-China talks related to solar issue), Air Berlin +4% (German pilots called off strike action, lower oil prices), Bayer +1% (broker commentary); Deutsche Euroshop -4% (ex-dividend), Merck KGaA -1.5% (broker commentary), SAP -1.5% (disappointing earnings from Oracle)]
- France movers [Danone +2% (broker commentary)]
- Italy moves [Fiat +1% (denied court case related to Chrysler had been delayed)]

Speakers:
- Greece Democratic Left leader Kouvelis party spokesperson recommended that the party leave the Greece cabinet of PM Samaras

- Bank of Italy stated that GDP contraction seen easing in Q2 (**Note compares to Q1 reading of -0.6%) and reiterated stabilization seen in H2
- China PBoC again said to have told banks not to expect that liquidity to always be plentiful and that its monetary policy would remain prudent. It ordered commercial banks to enhance liquidity management and could not expect expansionary policy to solve economic problems. Large banks should play a role in keeping markets stable
- EU finance ministers arrived for EcoFin meeting in Luxembourg.
- EU's Rehn saw s fair chance of compromise on banking resolution
- France Fin Min Moscovici stated that he was reasonably confident of banking resolution deal today as France supported flexibility on resolution rules
- Ireland Fin Min Noonan noted that ministers faced difficult discussions on bail-in compromise and noted that national flexibility was key to resolve issue
- Austria official stated it was difficult whether there would be an agreement on bank bail-in at today's meeting
- Luxembourg Fin Min Frieden felt it was not good to have too much flexibility on bail-ins
- Sweden Fin Min Borg stated that current bank-resolution proposal was not satisfactory, non-Euro countries needed more resolution flexibility as they were in a more vulnerable position
- Lithuania Fin Min: Very close to compromise on bail-in agreement as current proposal had found the right amount of flexibility and regulation
- Denmark Fin Min: A number of issues remain on the bank bail-in rules; No clear compromise solution on outstanding bail-in issues
- ECB's Asmussen: EU Fin Min will have a long day of talks today
- IMF's First Deputy Managing Director Lipton commented that Greece privatization program was a concern. He noted that story on suspending Greece payments is premature. He believed that the Fed would begin exit on QE as recovery is sufficient
- Swiss Jun KOF Institute June Economic Forecast maintained its 2013 GDP at 1.4% (same as its March view) and cuts its 2014 GDP growth to 2.0% from 2.2% prior. Improvement in economic activity would be supported by strong private consumption on the back of the positive trend in real income and employment, as well as immigration
- German Bundesbank Lautenschlaeger commented that looking to avoid a repeat of taxpayers and central banks being forced to rescue of banks
- Russia Fin Min Siluanov stated that he saw an improved outlook for bonds auctions and held meetings with banks on possible offering of international debt. Russia was weighing sale of 5 and 10-year Eurobonds and could offer a 30-year bond if investor demand was there. Might scrap Eurobond sale if markets deteriorate. Russia still able to borrow at rates no worse than last year
- Japan PM Abe vowed to bring economic recovery to Japan and added that the second round of growth strategy to boost corporate activities
- BOJ Gov Kuroda noted that the domestic economy had been picking up and expected to return to moderate growth although uncertainties did remain high. Some data suggested a rise in inflation expectations. Markets have been volatile since late May be he expected markets to regain stability. Exports were pickup and being helped by currency developments
- Japan Econ Min Amari reiterated view that Japan economy was on path of V-shaped recovery which has taken hold since Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) took power in Dec. He noted that Capex declines has trickled to a slower pace and sought to propose bill to expand capex in extra diet.
- Japan Chief Cabinet Sec Suga would keep BoJ law change in mind if necessary and reiterated that current BoJ governor shares govt's thinking
- Japan govt to change 10-year JGB issuance starting in July and resume issuance of inflation-linked JGB's
- Hong Kong Financial Secy Tsang stated that HK had not seen massive capital outflows . He added that Hong Kong might raise interest rates before the Fed
- Fitch commented on the China banking sector and noted that liquidity risks were rising. Continuous tight liquidity situations would constrain some banks to pay off upcoming obligations on maturing wealth-management products(WMP) on a timely basis. It estimated that more than CNY1.5T in WMPs - substitutes for time deposits - would mature in the last 10 days of June. China's mid-tier banks, also known as joint-stock, were likely to face the most difficulty, with an average of 20%-30% of total deposits in WMPs. This compared with 10%-20% for state-owned and city/rural banks.
- China Commerce Ministry (MOFCOM) official Gao Hucheng stated at the annual EU-China joint committee that it would begin investment agreement talks with EU as soon as possible and sought mutual investments. Discussed intellectual property rights, trade remedy, service and cargo trade with EU Trade Commissioner De Gucht
- EU Trade Commissioner De Gucht stated at the conference that talks over solar trade dispute was continuing in Beijing but was still early in the process and could not be solved overnight. Hoped to resolve EU solar trade dispute with price undertaking agreement. She noted that China and the EU did not have fundamental difference in views and that China could launch wine import probe under WTO rules

Currencies/Fixed Income:
- The FX market was subdued heading into the weekend after a volatile week of price action.
- The EUR/USD was little changed and holding above the 1.32 handle. Uncertainty over the Greek coalition staying together had little currency impact but Greece 10-year gov't yield rose above 11.50% level and was higher by almost 90bps in session

- The JPY weakened late into the Asian close as the Nikkei225 Index recovered from earlier losses. The Index was down almost 3% but ended the day +1.7%. Japan Chief Cabinet Sec Suga comment that corporate tax rate cut was one natural option to revive economy seemed to have aided sentiment into the close.

-Political/In the Papers:
-(EU) EU's Dijsselbloem: Establishing a clear pecking order for ESM bank recaps; the 60B ceiling on ESM bank recap fund can be reviewed in the future - Eurogroup press conference; Confirms retroactive use of ESM bank recap will be allowed on a case by case basis.
- (EU) EU's Rehn: Plan (related to ESM) has the potential to leverage up to 100B
-(EU) German Fin Min Schaeuble: Germany not delaying ECB bank supervision; ESM is the only lender of last resort for banks; May need to make changes in Germany law in order to approve the ESM bailout fund
- (FR) France Stats Agency INSEE: Forecasts France 2013 GDP contraction of 0.1% following no growth in 2012
-(GR) Greece PM Samaras: made proposal for reopening state broadcaster ERT, but couldn't come to agreement with Democratic Left leader Kouvelis
- (GR) Democratic Left party to make a decision on Friday whether if will continue in coalition govt - financial press
-(GR) Reportedly IMF to suspend payments to Greece next month unless 3-4B hole in the rescue program is plugged - FT; The gap emerged after eurozone central banks refused to roll over Greek bonds they hold.
- (GR) IMF: review of Greece program is ongoing; Greek mission has made good progress; If review of Greece bailout program is done this month, financing problems will not arise.
-(GR) Eurogroup chief Dijsselbloem: There will be no funding gap in Greece program if review is completed by July; Troika to return to Athens by July 1 after technical consultations.
-(GR) France Fin Min Moscovici: IMF has not threatened to withdraw support for Greece program.
- (CN) In early trading in China, China's money market rates declined sharply (7-day repo rate declined over 300bps), amid reports that the PBoC issued window guidance to banks aimed at having them increase the amount of cash in the financial system. Also, on yesterday's session there was speculation that the PBoC supplied CNY50B in targeted liquidity. However, a later released Chinese press report said the PBoC did not inject funding into the interbank market through reverse repos on Thursday.
-(CN) China banks hope China Banking Regulatory Commission (CBRC) to talk to PBoC to ease liquidity issues - Chinese press
-(CN) China State Council Development Research researcher Ba Shusong: great volatility in interbank market rates does not mean macroeconomic policy trend to shift

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (RU) German Chancellor Merkel at Economic forum in St. Petersburg, Russia
- (PE) Peru Central Bank Quarterly Inflation Report
- 06:00 (EU) ECB announces 3-Year LTRO Repayment
- 06:00 (IS) Iceland to Sell Bonds
- 06:10 (UK) DMO to sell 2.5B in 1-month, 3-month and 6-month Bills
- 06:30 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 06:30 (ES) Bank of Spain Dep Gov Restoy
- 07:30 (IN) India Forex Reserves w/e Jun 14th: No est v $289.7B prior
- 08:00 (BR) Brazil Jun IBGE CPI IPCA-15 M/M: 0.4%est v 0.5% prior; Y/Y: No est v % prior
- 08:00 (PT) Bank of Portugal Monthly Economic Indicators Report
- 08:30 (CA) Canada May Consumer Price Index M/M: +0.4%ev -0.2% prior; Y/Y: 0.9%e v 0.4% prior; Consumer Price Index: No est v 122.7 prior
- 08:30 (CA) Canada May CPI Core M/M: 0.3%e v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: 1.2%e v 1.1% prior
- 08:30 (CA) Canada Apr Retail Sales M/M: 0.2%e v 0.0% prior; Retail Sales Less Autos M/M: 0.0%e v -0.2% prior
- 09:00 (EU) EU Parliament to vote on Hungary removal from Excessive Deficit Procedure (EDP)
- 09:00 (CL) Chile May PPI M/M: No est v -3.9% prior
- 09:30 (BR) Brazil May Current Account: -$6.5Be v -$8.3B prior; Foreign Direct Investment (FDI): $3.0Be v $5.7B prior
- 10:00 (MX) Mexico Central Bank Monetary Policy Minutes
- 11:00 (US) Fed to purchase $1.25-1.75B in Notes
- 17:00 (CO) Colombia Apr Retail Sales Y/Y: 3.2%e v 0.9% prior
- 17:00 (CO) Colombia Apr Industrial Production Y/Y: +4.3%e v -11.5% prior

 

 

 

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