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German IFO Survey Monday. Active data week into quarter-end
|German IFO Survey Monday. Active data week into quarter-end|
24 June 2013 00:00 gmt
CALENDAR Far East: No Major Data. Europe: DE- IFO Survey. North America: No Major Data
- HIGH IMPACT ITEMS: DE- IFO Survey
- Last week was a watershed week after the Fed Chairman was exceptionally clear in laying out the separate paths for a wind down of its Asset Purchase program and the path for higher official interest rates.
- Chairman Bernanke solidified the path to a tapering of asset purchases indicating that he expected a reduction in asset purchases to start in the second half of this year and for the program to have ended by mid-2014. He gave the markets a benchmark unemployment rate to watch for, which is 7.0%, but warned that the tapering will be subject to economic conditions. The Fed would like to exit the emergency Asset Purchase Program as early as possible due to the market distortions it creates.
- As for interest rates, Bernanke seemed to soften his earlier guidance, saying that the old 6.50% target for the start of hiking interest rates is not a "target" any more. It is now the "threshold" for starting to consider a tightening.
- Fixed income and equity markets have reacted immediately and violently to the prospect of a future loss of Fed support for financial asset prices. The 10-yr note yield rose from 2.20% pre-Bernanke to the mid-2.50% levels by the Friday close.early Thursday as the bond markets immediately and preemptively tightened for the Fed.
- Monday sees the closely-followed German IFO Survey, This number is seen as a key indicator of the Eurozone economy
||JGB 0.87% +2bp
||Asia Close Lower|
||Bund 1.73% +7bp
||U.S. 2.51% +15bp
||U.S. Higher |
FX Trade Talk: What's moving markets-- Commentary, data. and data charts posted continuously on FOREX FORUM
John M. Bland, an author and a founding partner of Global-View.com, has been a corporate FX consultant for a major N.Y. bank, a forex trader for a major N.Y. institution, and an FX analyst for a blue chip Fed watching service.. John has an MBA in International Finance and an A.B. in Economics from the University of California at Berkeley.
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- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH to Medium Wed -- 20:30 GMT AU- Employment data.
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