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Tuesday June 25, 2013 - 10:57:47 GMT
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| | Email EU Market Update: Shanghai rallies from steep losses on hope PBoC will eventually take action; European fixed income auctions go smooth despite current rate environment

Tuesday, June 25, 2013 5:42:08 AM EU Market Update: Shanghai rallies from steep losses on hope PBoC will eventually take action; European fixed income auctions go smooth despite current rate environment

- China Funding conditions continued to ease but at a slower pace (7-day repo rate declines by almost 105 bps to 6.5% (declining for 3rd straight session) but PBoC not using market operations to ease cash crunch for four consecutive weeks; did not sell bills
- China appears to be deliberately engineering the financial stress to rein in wayward lenders that had binged on risky lending earlier in the year.
- Shanghai Composite rallies from steep losses (-5.8% after lunch break ) to close only 0.2% lower on hopes the govt would announce measures to ease credit conditions (no such help came today)
- France 2013 public deficit to be wider than mandated by the 2012 Finance Act by about €20B
- Portugal PM Coelho: Have not ruled out requesting "flexibility" under EU budget rules
- Mediobanca has raised concerns about Italy's outlook, says an EU bailout is possible within 6 months due to the weak economic situation and credit crunch
- European debt auctions (Spain and Italy) go off without any hitches; borrowing costs did rise significantly compares to prior auctions for similar maturities and mixed bid-to-cover ratios

***Economic Data***
- (JP) Japan Jun Small Business Confidence: 49.6 v 48.2 prior
- (FI) Finland May Unemployment Rate: 10.8 v 8.8% prior
- (FR) France Jun Business Confidence: 93 v 93e; Production Outlook Indicator: -42 v -44e; Own-Company Production Outlook: 0 v -2 prior
- (ZA) South Africa Apr Leading Indicator: v 101.0e
- (ES) Spain May Producer Prices M/M: % v +0.1%e; Y/Y: % v -0.3%e
- (EU) ECB €5.4B borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. €3.5B prior; €79.7B parked in deposit facility vs. €83.0B prior - Daily Eurosystem Liquidity Conditions
- (NL) Netherlands Q1 Final
GDP Q/Q: -0.4% v -0.1%e; Y/Y: -1.8% v -1.7%e
- (SE) Sweden May PPI M/M: -0.1% v -0.2%e; Y/Y: -4.9% v -5.0%e
- (IT) Italy Apr Retail Sales M/M: -0.1% v -0.1%e; Y/Y: -2.9% v -2.6%e
- (PL) Poland May Retail Sales M/M: 1.6% v 0.9%e; Y/Y: 0.5% v 0.0%e
- (PL) Poland May Unemployment Rate: 13.5% v 13.7%e
- (TW) Taiwan May M2 Money Supply Y/Y: 4.3% v 3.7% prior; M1 Money Supply Y/Y: 7.0% v 5.7% prior
- (UK) May BBA Loans for House Purchase: 36.1K v 33.2Ke </
>- (HK) Hong Kong May Trade Balance (HKD): -44.3B v -38.0Be; Exports Y/Y: -1.0%% v 3.4%e; Imports Y/Y: 1.7% v 3.5%e
- (RO) Romania May Money Supply Y/Y: 3.3% v 4.3% prior
- (GR) Greece Apr Current Account: -€1.2B v -€1.3B prior

Fixed Income: </
>- (UK) DMO opened book to sell inaugural GBP-denominated 2068 Gilt; guidance seen at +3.5-4.5bps over 2060 Gilt; order book closed at over£ 12.0B
- (NL) Netherlands Debt Agency (DSTA) opened its books to sell €5.0B in 1.25% Jan 2019 DSL bond via DDA (similar to syndicate); tightened guidance to +45-46bps over 3.75% 2019 Bunds; Order book over €10B
- (ES) Spain Debt Agency (Tesoro) sold total €3.07B vs. €2.0-3.0B indicated range in 3-Month and 9-Month Bills
- Sold €934M in 3-month Bills; Avg Yield: 0.869% v 0.331% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.94x v 4.38x prior; Max Yield: 0.900% v 0.353% prior; Tail: 3.1bps 2.1bps prior
- Sold €2.14B in 9-month Bills; Avg Yield: 1.441% v 0.789% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.42x v 2.16x prior; Max Yield: 1.490% v 0.810% prior; Tail: 4.9bps v 2.1bps prior
- (NO) Norway sold
NOK2B in 2023 Bonds; yield: 2.67%
- (IT) Italy Debt Agency (Tesoro) sold €3.5B vs.€2.5-3.5B indicated in new Jun 2015 CTZ; Avg Yield: 2.403% (highest since Sept 2013) v 1.113% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.48x v 1.57x prior
- (EU) ECB allotted €117.3B in 7-Day Main Refinancing Tender at fixed 0.50% vs. €102.0B prior
- (CH) Switzerland sold CHF in 3-Month Bills; Avg Yield: 0.134% v -0.123% prior
- (IT) Italy Debt Agency (Tesoro) sold total €1.0B in Sept 2018 and Sept 2026 BTPi
- (ZA) South Africa sold a total of ZAR2.35B in 2023, 2031 and 2048 bonds
- (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) sold HUF50B vs. HUF50B indicated to sell 3-month Bills; Avg Yield: 4.28% v 4.26% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.68x v 2.36x prior


***Equities*** </
>FTSE 100 +0.80% at 6,074, DAX +1.4% at 7,797, CAC-40 +1.3% at 3,641, IBEX-35 +1.3% at 7,647, FTSE MIB +0.90% at 15,240, SMI +0.90% at 7,312, S&P 500 Futures +0.50% at 1,574

- European equity markets are broadly higher, as global interest rates have declined following comments out of Fed, ECB and BoE officials. Also,
China's Shanghai Composite erased more than 5.5% losses on hopes of policy measures. Furthermore, it was reported in the press that the EU was planning to delay its tobin or financial transactions tax. European banks are mostly higher led by gains in shares of Portuguese banks (laggards on Monday's session). The rebound in commodity prices has supported resource related shares. In terms of upcoming events, US data releases for later today include May Durable Goods, May New Home Sales and June Consumer Confidence. Also, ECB President Draghi is due to speak later today.

- UK movers [Aquarius Platinum +5% (agreement with Anglo Platinum), Fresnillo +2% (broker commentary), Carpetright +1.5% (FY profits rose y/y); Rexam -3.5% (profit warning)]
- France movers [Peugeot +5% (strong demand for crossover model)]

Speakers: </
>- China PBOC official Ling commented ahead of the 3-day Lujiazui Forum in Shanghai that the financial market was stable and that liquidity was ample (in line with weekend statement). PBoC would increase communication to guide rates. He noted that money market fluctuations were only temporary and the central bank would keep rates at reasonable levels. He blamed seasonal factors affecting money rates and effects would gradually disappear. The PBoC to closely monitor money market rates going forward
- China PBoC would not be tricked into supplying liquidity into banking sector as believed banks were not short of liquidity. PBoC suspended 3-month sales to ease market conditions and that it provided ample liquidity in Jun via OMO
- EU stated that the financial transaction tax to be delayed at least 6 months due to disagreement on key aspects. The financial transactions tax "could still enter into force towards the middle of 2014,"provided that "agreement was found before the end of 2013, and there was a speedy transposition into national law by the participating member states."
- Italy PM Letta commented on upcoming EU Leader Summit and stressed that the EU crisis was not over and needed concrete and immediate response from Europe as time was running short
- EU's Rehn commented that the increase in bond yields was a reminder of how fragile Europe was and highlighted importance of economic reforms
- Spain Economy Min de Guindos commented that EU could reach solution on banks and European Investment Bank (EIB) instruments could help credit to small business (SME's)
- ECB's Coeure commented that there was no doubt ECB exit was distant and reiterated that monetary policy to remain accommodative and a reversal was not warranted. He also noted that additional easing measure could take place if warranted. EMU growth to remain weak in 2013 with inflation below 2%. He added that bond market volatility was 'excessive' but Euro Area bond markets had appeared to be resilient. Yield normalization could renew market fragmentation; best remedy was to restore confidence in balance sheets
- ECB's Constancio: ECB in a wait-and see mode; policy approach deemed to be 'not too activist'. Watching sentiment data but hard data is more important
- BOE members testified to Parliament on its annual report
- BOE King stated that was nowhere near conditions for returning interest rates to normal levels. QE in
UK was clearly necessary to prevent money supply collapse. He cautioned that there would be serious solvency problems issues at many banks if debt levels are not reduced before interest rates rise
- BOE Dale stated that he saw a modest sustained economic growth as headwinds to growth had eased. Recovery was likely to be weak given historical standards with considerable uncertainty over crisis impact. Weakness in wage growth meant that domestic cost pressures remained well contained. There was a risk of exit from ultra loose policy. Inflation to fluctuate around 3% over summer and fall period and fall back to 2% target over next two years
- BOE's Broadbent stated that he was not concerned that markets were taking excessive risks and was more confident in BoE's forecast of accelerating GDP growth but its forecasts remained muted as Euro Area would continue to act as a drag on UK and remains the most important risk
- BOE's Bean stated that negative rates might eat into bank profits. Banks might hoard cash was rates are negative and hard to see how euro zone can recover rapidly.
- Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA)'s Edwards: AUD currency might not continue to move down, but the weakness was very welcome
- New Zealand Fin Min English: NZD (kiwi) still overvalued
- German Chancellor Merkel commented that €8.0B flood relief did not require a tax increase and would increase borrowing to fund flood increase
- IMF Official Breuer commented that slowing trading partner growth was a problem for Ireland
- Financial Stability Board's Carney commented that adjusting central bank accommodation because of Improved Economy was good for financial stability. Supervisors should incorporate higher interest rate risk in stress tests. EU resolution was directive incredibly important for large banks. FSB to establish steering group to coordinate review of existing interest rate benchmarks and examine whether benchmarks meet international standards
- EU govts agree to revive accession talks with Turkey, postpones exact date until later in the year
- S&P commented that it was still far away from danger zone for Euro Zone periphery, despite yield moves
- S&P analysts Qiang Liao: China interbank loan growth boosts contagion risk among small banks and saw more measures to contain shadow banking risks
- S&P Economist Gruenwald commented that there was no big or immediate macro impact of China's banking crunch and saw no similarity between current Chinese credit crunch and Lehman brothers.
- UAE Oil Min: No need for any emergency OPEC meeting

Currencies/Fixed Income:
- The European session begin with sentiment improving compared to the Far East trading amid talk that the PBoC and the major China banks were holding a joint press conference. The Shanghai Composite was off approx 5.8% before closing just down 0.2% on hope that Chinese Govt officials would blink in providing fresh liquidly to alleviate the current cash crunch. It turned out that
China was only holding a press conference ahead of a planned China holding a 3-day Lujiazui Forum Briefing in Shanghai with all govt officials represented. PBoC did hold its line that ample liquidity was already present for its banking sector.
- Nonetheless the EUR/USD appeared to be mildly supportive as a moderate rally across European equity markets weighed on the USD.
- The USD was consolidating its recent gains as several Fed officials noted that market were overreacting to the June-19th FOMC outcome.

-Political/In the Papers:
- (EU) ECB's Coeure: It is not the ECB's job to ensure proper capital levels; there is still scope to adjust Basel III rules so as not to impair securitization
- (FR) France 2013 public deficit to be wider than mandated by the 2012 Finance Act by about €20B - Le Figaro; French Assembly Finance Committee report published today shows the govt deficit for 2013 will be over €80B, much wider than the €61.5B set out by the 2012 Finance Act; Tax revenue could be €15B lower than expected in 2013
-(FR) EU's Barroso calls on France to get its own house in order and not cast blame on the rest of Europe in response to comments from Montebourg - Les Echos
-(GR) Greece PM Samaras adjusts cabinet composition; names Venizelos as Deputy PM and Foreign Min; Fin Min Stournaras remains; Conservative New Democracys Kyriakos Mitsotakis taking on administrative reform
- (IT) Italy former PM Berlusconi found guilty of prostitution with a minor, sentenced to seven years in jail, banned from holding public office pending appeal
-(IT) Mediobanca has raised concerns about Italy's outlook, says an EU bailout is possible - Telegraph's Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
- (PT) Portugal PM Coelho: Have not ruled out requesting "flexibility" under EU budget rules - financial press
-(US) Fed's Fisher (hawk, alternate on FOMC): Fully agrees with Chairman Bernanke's words last week in regards to tapering and stimulus, finds himself in the central tendency of the Fed forecast; A significant majority backed Chairman Bernanke's statement last week.
-(US) Fed's Kocherlakota: Reiterates QE is dependent on data; Concerned inflation is not returning to 2% target, subdued inflation would warrant extending QE; More clarity will put downward pressure on market rates; Not concerned about market moves after last week's FOMC statement.
-(US) Fed's Dudley (dove, FOMC voter): Policy cannot work without financial stability, Fed should act to prevent financial instability
-(US) Premature tightening by the Fed could lead to deflation - Telegraph's Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
- (US) PIMCO's El-Erian: Sees yields lower by the end of the year- TV interview; Premature to expect the Fed to backtrack on its recent comments.
-(US) Fitch: Labor shortage could constrain US housing growth

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (ZA) South Africa Mining Industry and Union to sign Industry Agreement
- (US) US Senate Seat Election for Massachusetts
- (UK) Euromoney Conference in London
- (FI) Russia President Putin meets Finnish President Niinistoe
- (PT) Portugal Year-to-Date Budget Report
- (PT) Portugal Apr Current Account: No est v €270.0M prior
- (IN) India to sell INR10B in inflation-linked 1.44% 2023 bonds
- 06:00 (TR) Turkey to sell 2015, 2020 and 2023 bonds
- 06:30 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:00 (EU) ECB 7-day Term Deposit Tender to offset Govt Bond Purchases under SMP
- 07:00 (BR) Brazil Jun FGV Construction Costs M/M: 2.0%e v 1.2% prior
- 07:30 (CH) Swiss National Bank Board member Zurbruegg speaks in Lugano
- 07:45 (US) Weekly ICSC Chain Store Sales
- 08:00 (HU) Hungary Central Bank Interest Rate Decisions: Expected to cut Base Rate by 25bps to 4.25%
- 08:00 (RO) Romania to sell RON300M in Bonds
- 08:15 (EU) ECB chief Draghi in Berlin
- 08:30 (US) May Durable Goods Orders: 3.0%e v 3.5% prior (revised from 3.3%; Durables Ex Transportation: 0.0%e v 1.5% prior (revised from 1.3%); Capital Goods Orders Non-defense Ex- Aircraft: 0.5%e v 1.2% prior; Capital Goods Shipments Non-defense Ex- Aircraft: +0.8%e v -1.3% prior (revised from -1.5%); Durables Ex-Defense: No est v +2.1% prior
- 08:55 (US) Weekly Redbook Retail Sales
- 09:00 (US) Apr S&P/CaseShiller 20 City M/M: 1.20%e v 1.12% prior; Y/Y: 10.60%e v 10.87% prior; Home Price Index: No Est v 148.65 prior
- 09:00 (MX) Mexico Apr Global Economic Indicator: +3.7%e v -1.8% prior
- 09:00 (EU) Weekly ECB Forex Reserves: No est v €220.4B prior
- 09:00 (US) Apr House Price Index M/M: 1.1%e v 1.3% prior
- 09:30 (ZA) South Africa Crop Estimates Committee 5th summer grains output forecast
- 09:30 (BR) Brazil May Total Outstanding Loans (BRL): No est v 2.453T prior; M/M: No est v 1.1% prior; Private Banks Lending: No est v 1.247T prior; Personal Loan Default Rate: No est v 7.5% prior
- 09:30 (EU) ECB calls for bids in 3-Month Refinancing Tender
- 10:00 (MX) Mexico Weekly International Reserves
- 10:00 (US) Jun Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index: +2e v -2 prior </
>- 10:00 (US) Jun Consumer Confidence: 75.1e v 76.2 prior
- 10:00 (US) May New Home Sales: 460Ke v 454K prior
- 10:00 (EU) EU, Moldovan Officials hold Meeting in Luxembourg
- 10:00 (PT) Portugal Sec of State Albuquerque in Parliament
- 10:30 (FI) ECB member Liikanen in Berlin
- 10:30 (UK) Treasury to announce size of upcoming 2.25% 2023 Gilt for july 2nd
- 11:00 (US) Fed to purchase $1.25-1.75B in Notes
- 11:00 (UR) Ukraine to sell Bills and Bonds
- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell $55 in 4-Week and 52-Week Bills
- 11:30 (AT) EU's Almunia speaks at Vienna Panel Discussion
- 12:00 (BR) Brazil to Ssell I/L 2018 and 2022 Bonds
- 12:30 (DE) German Fin Min Schaeuble on Transatlantic Partnership
- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell $35B in 2-Year Notes
- 14:00 (BR) Brazil May Central Govt Budget (BRL): 3.5Be v 7.2B prior
- 14:00 (DE) German Chancellor Merkel at CDU Economic Council
- 14:30 (DE) German Chancellor Merkel with Netherlands PM Rutte
- 16:30 (US) Weekly API U.S. Crude Oil Inventories
- 17:00 (US) Treasury Sec Lew


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