Tuesday June 25, 2013 - 20:40:37 GMT
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Westpac Institutional Bank - www.westpac.co.nz
Forex - Westpac Morning Report
Morning Report Wednesday 26 June 2013
Global market sentiment: Sentiment improved as China’s equity markets stabilised. The Shanghai Composite fell by as much as 6.0% during the day but recovered fully by the close. A Chinese central bank official indicated it will ease the recent credit crunch. In Europe, ECB-head Draghi said it could resort to its own QE if the US tapers its program. A large batch of US data, including durable goods and house prices, surprised to the upside. Although such good news adds to the tapering case, US equities continued to rally, the S&P500 up 1.0% currently.
Interest rates: US 10yr treasury bonds yields fell during the Asian session but bounced in London, from 2.48% to 2.61%, most of the gain coming after the strong US data. Demand at a 2yr auction was subdued, the bid-cover ratio 3.1 (vs 3.7 average).
Australian 3yr government bonds yields consolidated the domestic session’s large 25bp decline, ranging sideways between 2.87% and 2.95%.The 10yr yield similarly ranged between 3.80% and 3.87%.
Currencies: The US dollar index rebounded following the US data but remained inside the previous day’s range. EUR fell from 1.3151 to 1.3065 before rebounding to 1.3104, ECB remarks weighing. USD/JPY rose from 96.96 to 98.03. AUD recovered with Chinese equities, initially rising from 0.9197 to 0.929 but then ranging. NZD consolidated the week’s losses, ranging between 0.7697 and 0.7796. AUD/NZD rose from 1.1920 to 1.1980.
US durable goods orders rose 3.6% in May, buoyed once again by a further rebound in aircraft orders. However ore capital goods orders ex aircraft and defence posted a third straight gain of just over 1%, though their three month annualised pace of 7.6% is still down on 18.8% recorded in Dec-Feb. Annual growth in core orders slowed from 4.7% to 3.1% yr but remains above the annual falls seen from mid-2012 until March. However core shipments continued to decline, at –1.0% yr.
US housing data solid on all measures. New home sales rose 2.1% in May and revisions were positive, for an annualised sales pace of 476k, a new post recession high. Sales are still 66% lower than the 2005 high of 1389k - but they’re pointing in the right direction. Meanwhile house prices rose 1.7% (S&P Case Shiller 20 city index) or 0.7% (FHFA index) in April for 12.1%/7.1% yr annual rates of growth, at or close to the fastest growth rates in nearly a decade. Prices are still down 26% from their 2006 peak (S&P CS index).
US Conference Board consumer confidence rose for the third month running in June, up 7.1pts to 81.4, the highest since early 2008. In every month of Q2, expectations have risen faster than the present index, for cumulative gains since March of 41% and 17% respectively. There was a modest further improvement in the assessment of the labour market from –26.5 to –25.2, but improving job prospects are not the reason for this upswing in optimism.
US Richmond Fed factory index rose from –2 to 8 in June, its highest for the year so far. Shipments rose faster, orders fell more slowly and jobs rebounded after falling in May.
Event risk today: The local calendars are again empty, and there’s little to watch until US Q1 GDP is finalised tonight.
NZD/USD 1 day: This two-day corrective bounce could continue past 0.7800.
NZD/USD 1-3 month: A three-year trend support line was broken last week at 0.7760 and if sustained this week argues for 0.7455 next. Fed tapering expectations will remain a depressant and NZ’s economic data momentum is likely to slow during the next few months.
AUD/USD 1 day: This two-day corrective bounce could continue past 0.9300.
AUD/USD 1-3 month: The 16 May decisive break below a two-year contracting range was a very bearish signal pointing towards 0.9200 initially. Technically it could run as far as the low 0.80’s. The Australian data flow is unsupportive, and the RBA is likely to ease further to 2.0% by Q1 2014.
AUD/NZD 1 day: Bouncing around a wide range near term with 1.2100 possible.
AUD/NZD 1-3 month: June’s consolidation persists but should eventually resume the trend decline towards 1.1500, possibly as far as 1.1100. Relative fundamentals (e.g. RBA easing to 2.0% vs RBNZ stuck at 2.5%) favour the NZD medium term.
NZ swap yields 1 day: Taking the lead from US and Australian bond yields overnight (see above) the 2yr should open up 1bp at 3.17%. The 10yr should open unchanged at 4.53%.
NZ swap yields 1-3 month: The uptrend since June 2012 remains intact. By late-2013 we would expect to see the 2yr above 3.40% based on NZ’s improving fundamentals and eventual RBNZ tightening in 2014. The US-influenced 10yr yield has also confirmed its uptrend and targets 4.68% next.
Westpac Banking Corporation ABN 33 007 457 141 incorporated in Australia (NZ division). Information current as at 26 June 2013. All customers please note that this information has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Because of this you should, before acting on this information, consider its appropriateness, having regard to your objectives, financial situation or needs. Australian customers can obtain Westpac’s
financial services guide by calling +612 9284 8372, visiting www.westpac.com.au or visiting any Westpac Branch. The information may contain material provided directly by third parties, and while such material is published with permission, Westpac accepts no responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of any such material. Except where contrary to law, Westpac intends by this notice to exclude liability for the information. The information is subject to change without
notice and Westpac is under no obligation to update the information or correct any inaccuracy which may become apparent at a later date. Westpac Banking Corporation is registered in England as a branch (branch number BR000106) and is authorised and regulated by The Financial Services Authority. Westpac Europe Limited is a company registered in England (number 05660023) and is authorised and regulated by The Financial Services Authority. © 2010 Westpac Banking Corporation. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The forecasts given in this document are predictive in character. Whilst every effort has been taken to ensure that the assumptions on which the forecasts are based are reasonable, the forecasts may be affected by incorrect assumptions or by known or unknown risks and uncertainties. The ultimate outcomes may differ substantially from these forecasts.
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