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Wednesday June 26, 2013 - 03:37:07 GMT
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Morning Briefing : 26-Jun-2013 -0334 GMT

GOOD MORNING!


EQUITIES
A bit of a bounce in the Dow (14760.31, +0.69%, +100.75) following the bounce from 1850 in Shanghai yesterday. But, the Shanghai (1929, -1.54%) is down again today. We see it testing 1875 on a Week Close basis before bouncing properly.

US Durable Goods, New Home Sales, Consumer Confidence and Case Shiller Index were all much better than expected. US Q1 GDP data (Final) is awaited today. The previous reading was 2.40%. Maybe this gets revised upwards to 2.50%. If the Support at 14500 continues to hold on the Dow, we can see a move back up towards 15000.

Asia-Pac indices are mostly in the green today ranging from +0.15% (Malaysia) to +2.2% (Indonesia). Only China, Korea and Japan are down. The Nifty (5609.10) still suffers from bad sentiment though and may still be vulnerable to a dip towards 5490.


COMMODITIES
Gold (1246.92) has tanked today and is a whisper away from our initial target of 1225. Silver (18.86) also trades lower and is likely to test crucial Bear-Channel Support near 18.50. A bit of a bounce is possible from there.

Brent (101.00) is looking mixed. It has crucial Support in the 100-99 region in the near term, but could be very bearish in case that breaks. We see it holding above Support for now, but have to watch for developments.


CURRENCIES
Currencies have been consolidative for a couple of days but remain bearish overall against the Dollar.

The Dollar Index (82.71) remains strong, the Euro (1.3065) remains weak. That said, we expect both to continue to trade sideways in a wide range for the coming weeks. We anticipate a range of 1.29-34 for the Euro.

Dollar-Yen (97.77) trades slightly lower but could be bullish towards 99+ while above 97.00. The Euro-Yen Cross (127.75) is in a tight sideways range, but is gearing up for a breakout by next week. The outlook is mixed, tilted towards slight bearishness.

The Pound (1.5413) has crucial Support in the 1.54-53 region, but could be vulnerable to a decline towards 1.52-51 if that breaks. The Aussie (0.9248) is seeing a bit of Short-covering, but remains vulnerable to a further decline while below 0.9300. That said, we note that the market is sitting on huge record Shorts on the Aussie, so the possibility of a short-squeeze may also be there.

The EM and "R" currencies are seeing a bit of consolidation/ pullback. This could keep Dollar-Rupee (59.68) below 60.25 today.


INTEREST RATES
The US 10-Yr (2.59%) has risen again responding to the strong US economic data yesterday. Watch crucial Resistance in the 2.65-70% region. There is a 50% chance that it will hold and produce a dip towards 2.50%, maybe even 2.25%. The 5-Yr Yield (1.48%) has already come up to a crucial tren Resistance and can/ should cool off a bit in the near term.

US Swap Rates have seen a steep rise in the last few weeks, but are likely to cool off for a while now as there will not be too many takers at these levels.

DATA TODAY
12:30 GMT or 18:00 IST US GDP
...Expected 2.40 % ...Previous 2.40 %


DATA YESTERDAY
US Durable Goods Orders
...Actual 3.60 % ...Previous 3.46 %

US Case Schiller
...Actual 12.05 % ...Previous 10.85 %

US New Home Sales
...Actual 476 K ...Previous 466 K

US Cons Conf
...Actual 81.4 ...Previous 74.3

 

 

 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:


Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- FOMC Minutes
Thu 23 Nov
US/JP- Holiday
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13:30 CA- Retail Sales
Fri 24 Nov
All Day flash PMIs
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
US- Early Closes

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias


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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 13:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:00 GMT US- final University of Michigan Survey
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:30 GMT US- EIA Crude
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John M. Bland, MBA
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