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Wednesday June 26, 2013 - 10:37:46 GMT
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TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Global central bankers continue to strut dovish rhetoric to offset concerns over Fed tapering; Australia PM Gillard said to have lost Leadership challenge to Rudd

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Global central bankers continue to strut dovish rhetoric to offset concerns over Fed tapering; Australia PM Gillard said to have lost Leadership challenge to Rudd
Wed, 26 Jun 2013 5:44 AM EST

***Notes/Observations***
- China liquidity crunch continues to ease, as 7-day repo rates fall for the 4th consecutive session, to low 7%; but remains well above the 3% long-run average; Press reports hinting PBoC might step in with liquidity for bigger banks as analysts speculate policymakers would look to avoid disorderly credit squeeze. Far East equity markets mixed
- Australia PM Gillard said to have lost a leadership challenge to Rudd
- Global central bankers continue dovish rhetoric to offset concerns of possible Fed tapering. Even BIS softened its stance from its recent annual report
- Spot Gold, Silver fall to lowest levels since 2010 tracking USD strength; both metals off over 4% ahead of the NY morning

***Economic Data***
- (SG) Singapore May Industrial Production M/M: +1.2% v -0.5%e; Y/Y: 2.1% v 0.1%e
- (DE) Germany July GfK Consumer Confidence Survey: 6.8 v 6.5e
- (CH) Swiss May UBS Consumption Indicator: 1.46 v 1.43 prior
- (FI) Finland May Preliminary Retail Sales Volume Y/Y: 2.7% v 0.3% prior
- (FR) France Q1 Final Gross Domestic Product Q/Q: -0.2% v -0.2%e; Y/Y: -0.4% v -0.4%e
- (ES) Spain Apr Mortgages-capital loaned Y/Y: No est v -34.8% prior; Mortgages on Houses Y/Y: No est v -34.1% prior
- (TH) Thailand May Custom Trade Balance: -$2.3B v -$1.7Be; Exports Y/Y: -5.3% v -4.2%e; Imports Y/Y: -2.1% v -3.7%e
-(EU) ECB 5.5B borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 5.4B prior; 83.2B parked in deposit facility vs. 79.7B prior - Daily Eurosystem Liquidity Conditions
- (NO) Norway Apr AKU Unemployment Rate: 3.5% v 3.7%e

Fixed Income:
- (IT) Italy Debt Agency (Tesoro) sold 8.0B vs. 8.0B indicated in 6-month Bills; Avg Yield: 1.051% v 0.538% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.36x v 1.58x

- (EU) ECB allotted $200M in 8-Day USD Liquidity Tender at fixed 0.60% vs $0.0M prior (first allotment in weeks)
- (EU) ECB announces allotted 9.5B in 3-Month Refinancing Tender at fixed 0.50% vs. 8.0Be

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***

***Equities***
FTSE 100 +0.90% at 6,154,
DAX +1.3% at 7,910, CAC-40 +1.4% at 3,699, IBEX-35 +1.6% at 7,731, FTSE MIB +1.4% at 15,262, SMI +1.4% at 7,499, S&P 500 Futures +0.30% at 1,586

- Equity markets in Europe are mostly higher, amid the move lower in global bond yields. Additionally, Chinese money market rates declined for the 4th straight session, following recent commentary out of the PBoC. Despite the overall gains in the equity markets, resource related shares have lagged on the decline in commodity prices. European banks are mostly higher, led by Spanish banks (supported by broker commentary), although shares of Commerzbank have lagged. In terms of upcoming macro events, US final Q1 GDP data is due to be released later today.


- UK movers [Afren +6.5% (oil find), Stagecoach +4% (raised dividend), Arm Holdings +2% (broker commentary), Standard Chartered +2% (trading update); Craneware -12% (profit warning), ICAP -7% (broker commentary), Blinkx -4% (share placement) ]
- France movers [Unibail-Rodamco +2.5% (broker commentary), Alcatel-Lucent -2% (convertible bond offering)]
- Germany movers [GSW Immobilien +5% (CEO change), RWE +3% (broker commentary); Bijou Brigitte -7% (ex-dividend), Commerzbank -2.5% (concerns related to shipping unit)]
- Belgium movers [Colruyt +8% (FY results above ests)]

Speakers:
- Reports circulated that Former PM Rudd has the votes to win the Leadership challenge and regain control from PM Gillard

- ECB chief Draghi addressed the Paris at National Assembly in which he reiterated that price stability was its main mandate and that the central bank had done a great deal to support the Euro. The OMT bond buying scheme had been effective in restoring market functioning and trust. Bank lending was main channel for company financing and stressed that ECB could not provide capital to small firms. He also reiterated that ECB stood ready to act again if necessary. ECB had done as much as it can to stabilize markets and support economy. He again stressed that there were limits to monetary policy and it could not create real economic growth
- BOE member Miles noted that the shape of the yield curve was a key insight into inflation expectations and looking at the yield curve was essential to policy decisions and would be key when it came to the unwind of QE. Corporate bond spread were above where it was pre-crisis. Slight expansion of QE would provide a little extra stimulus
- BOE Financial Stability Report noted that the outlook was still clouded by weak global recovery and Euro zone problems. BoE to assess vulnerability of borrowers and financial institutions to higher rates and report back by Sept. Banks could scale back cash liquidity buffers to 80% of Basel III minimum until Jan 2015. To decide by Q4 if banks should use the standard Basel III model to calculate the risk on their books
- Bundesbank Dombret: Central banks will continue generous liquiidity policy for some time to come
- Bank of Spain (BOS) monthly bulletin noted that Q2 data showed improved demand indicators with indicators pointing to a relief in the economic contraction. It did add that domestic demand was still notably weak
- Bank of International Settlements (BIS)'s Caruana stated that markets over-reacted to the Federal Reserve's plan to stop money printing but volatility was inevitable
- Eurogroup chief Dijsselbloem sent letter to Cyprus President Anastasiades noting that the country's situation did not allow for complacency
- Cyprus President Anastasiades announced extra growth measures to reduce unemployment and attract foreign investment. The measures include tax incentives for investment. Planning additional measures relating to repatriation of capital for foreign investors and tax relief for those impacted by the restructuring of the country's banking sector
- Ireland Fin Min Noonan stated that he saw signs of increased activity in the commercial property market
- Sweden PM Reinfeldt reiterated his view that recent SEK currency (Krona) weakness was a relief for exporters; rules out FX intervention
- Italy PM Letta stated that his Cabinet passed plan to tackle youth unemployment and said delay to VAT increase by 3 months
- German Chancellor Merkel Cabinet approved its 2014 budget
- EU's Van Rompuy urged the use of 'tangible measures' to fight unemployment
- EU Farm Ministers agree on end to Sugar quotas in either 2017 or 2018
- Fitch stated that it was not expecting China liquidity squeeze to escalate but tighter interbank liquidity might persist. Spillover of China liquidity risks limited on Hong Kong banking sector but did expect some outflows of Yuan deposits from Hong Kong
- Japan PM Abe stated that he was determined to resolve the country's hung Parliament and convinced his economic policies were not mistaken
- Japan's public pension fund (GPIF): Tokyo stock market had room to rally to catch up with of share prices of the United States and Europe
- China state council: China economic situation was stable and to maintain policy continuity. It reiterated its view to expand domestic demand and noted it needed to stabilize market expectations
- Former PBoC Advisor Li Daokui stated that the cash crunch would not lead to a China crisis but showed a deep rooted problem and could lead to reforms

Currencies/Fixed Income:
- The USD and JPY were slightly firmer against the European pairs in the session ahead of the quarter-end flows.
- Dealers noted that the EUR/USD likely had support ahead of the psychological 1.30000 level and added that short term downside could be somewhat limited with some technical indicators 'slightly stretched'. Ahead of the NY morning the EUR/USD was at 3-week lows just above the 1.3030 area
- The USD/JPY was rejected at the 98 handle during Asia with dealers noting of a large 98.00 and 98.25 expiration in the pair today
- The GBP/USD was softer: Osborne budget cuts to highlight post election pain
- European peripheral yields moved lower as the session progressed. The Spanish 10-year gov't yield at 4.92% vs. 5.08% earlier today; lower by almost 15bps in session and the
- The India INR currency (rupee) tested above the 60 handle for fresh record lows

-Political/In the Papers:
- (EU) ECB's Liikanen: ECB's exit from accommodative monetary policy is a ways away, but will occur
- (DE) Some analysts believe that German Bunds could continue to outperform other euro zone sovereign bonds - US financial press; Notes Bunds have been supported in recent weeks by factors including risk aversion and Germany's better economic fundamentals when compared to countries such as Belgium and the Netherlands.
- (IT) According to a leaked report from the Italian Treasury Italy could face billions of Euros of losses on restructured derivatives contracts it holds on the books- press
- (US) Treasury Sec Lew: Impact of US sequestration starting to sink in - financial press; US economy stronger than some had expected.
-(CN) In early trading China's 7-day repo rate declined to 7.17% from 7.44% prior (declined for the 4th consecutive session)
- (CN) China 1-yr swap falls 36bps to 3.71% (lowest since June 14th)
- (CN) China fund shortage won't cause crisis - People's Daily
- (CN) China June new loans may be in range of CNY700-800B v CNY667.4B m/m- Chinese press

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (UK) Chancellor Osborne announces U.K. Government Spending Review
- (EU) Euromoney forum (includes ECB's Coeure, BOE's Miles and various Debt Agency chiefs ((FR) France Debt Agency (AFT) chief Fayolle, Spain Debt Agency official Ramon-Laca, Italy Debt Agency (Tesoro) chief Cannata, Belgium Debt Agency Chief Fecleroq:
- (EU) Institute of International Finance (IIF)includes ECB's Asmussen (Germany), ECB's Mersch (Luxembourg) and EU's Almunia
- (IT) Italy PM Letta Cabinet meeting
- (BE) European Finance Ministers discuss bank rules
- 06:00 (DE) German Econ Min Roesler
- 06:00 (ZA) South Africa Central Bank (SARB) Gov Marcus
- 06:00 (RU) Russia cancels OFZ Bond auction
- 06:30 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:00 (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e Jun 21st: No est v -3.3% prior
- 07:00 (UK) Prime Minister's question time in House of Commons
- 07:00 (DE) German Fin Min Schaeuble briefingon 2014 budget draft
- 07:30 (EU) EU's Buti in debate on competitiveness
- 08:15 (EU) ECB's Asmussen (Germany) speaks in Paris
- 08:15 (DE) German Chancellor Merkel at Farming event
- 08:30 (US) Q1 Final GDP QoQ Annualized: 2.4%e v 2.4% prelim; Personal Consumption: 3.4%e v 3.4% prelim
- 08:30 (US) Q1 Final GDP Price Index: 1.1%e v 1.1% prelim; Core PCE Q/Q: 1.3%e v 1.3% prelim
- 08:30 (CL) Chile Central Bank's Traders Survey
- 09:00 (MX) Mexico May Preliminary Trade Balance: -$308.8Me v -$1.2B prior
- 10:00 (US) Fed's Fisher on Financial regulation
- 10:00 (PT) Portugal PM Coelho in Parliament
- 10:30 (US) Weekly DOE Crude Oil Inventories
- 11:00 (US) Fed to purchase $2.75-3.50B in Notes
- 11:15 (EU) ECB's Mersch (Luxembourg) speaks in Paris
- 12:00 (CA) Bank of Canada Dep Govr Lane speaks at CFA Society
- 12:00 (IS) Iceland Central Bank Minutes
- 12:00 (CA) Canada to sell 10 Year Notes
- 12:00 (FR) France May Net Change Jobseekers: +26.0Ke v +39.8K prior; Total Jobseekers: No est v 3.264M prior
- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell $35B in 5-Year Notes
- 19:00 (PT) Portuguese State Workers Strike

 

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