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Monday July 25, 2005 - 00:48:42 GMT
Westpac Institutional Bank - www.westpac.co.nz

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Forex: Westpac Institutional Bank Morning Report

New Zealand Dollar: NZD drifts from overnight highs
The NZD traded within a narrow range on Friday as market participants digested the news of China's currency revaluation. With the USD recovering from losses suffered immediately after the Chinese announcement, the NZD was unable to strengthen through 0.6870 during the domestic session. Despite this, little downside follow through was evident and lows of 0.6835, established mid-morning, held for the remainder of the day. A tight range was also maintained during the overnight session. Although another attempt at an upside break saw the currency rally to 0.6887, the NZD again drifted for the remainder of the session and opens this morning, at the low end of the range at 0.6845.

Australian Dollar: AUD softens from overnight highs
AUD/USD also traded within a tight range during the domestic session on Friday. While the release of a strong international trade report for the second quarter was largely regarded as bolstering producer price inflation, the currency ran into domestic selling above 0.7650. The market drove higher during the offshore session to establish a new high for July at 0.7688. Renewed USD demand weighed on the market however, and the currency drifted lower throughout the remainder of the overnight session to end towards intra-day lows at 0.7635. The AUD opens softer this morning at 0.7630.

Major Currencies: USD rallies on China debate and security concerns
The USD regained some of the previous sessions steep losses against the yen on Friday as markets pondered the implications of China's decision to revalue its currency against the USD. Following the yen's biggest single move versus the USD in three years on Thursday, the yen gave back some of its gains with the USD/JPY trading a 111.47 high during Friday's offshore session up on Thursday's 109.87 low. The USD also rallied versus the euro, with the euro falling through 1.2100 resistance during Friday's offshore session eventually posting a 1.2055 low. The euro opens near its lows at around 1.2060 this morning. The GBP also suffered on Friday with the market more comfortable selling the GBP following further security concerns. The GBP traded a 216bp range in Friday's offshore session and opens this morning near its lows at around 1.7380.

Events Today
Country Release Last Forecast
25 Jul Aust Q2 Producer Price Indexes 0.0% 1.1%
US Jun Existing Home Sales -0.7% 2.0%
Ger Jul Cost of Living Prelim %yr 1.8% 1.9%
UK Jul House Prices %yr -0.2% 0.5%
26 Jul Aust Q2 NAB Business Survey
US Jul CB Consumer Confid 105.8 107.5
Ger Jul IFO Bus Climate Index 93.3 93.7

Latest Research papers/Publication
• RBNZ July OCR Preview (22 July)
• Migration and the RBNZ (21 July)
• NZ Weekly Forex Outlook (18 July)
• NZ Weekly Interest Rate Wrap-up (18 July)
• NZ Q2 CPI Review (14 July)
• NZD: What really drives the currency? (14 July)
• NZ Q2 CPI Preview (11 July)
These papers/publications are available on Online Research on
Westpac Institutional Bank’s website (www.wib.westpac.co.nz)
(Previous day’s closing rates)

Westpac Banking Corporation ABN 33 007 457 141 incorporated in Australia (NZ division). Information current as at 24 May 2005. All customers please note that this information has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Because of this you should, before acting on this information, consider its appropriateness, having regard to your objectives, financial situation or needs. Australian customers can obtain Westpac's financial services guide by calling +612 9284 8372, visiting www.westpac.com.au or visiting any Westpac Branch. The information may contain material provided directly by third parties, and while such material is published with permission, Westpac accepts no responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of any such material. Except where contrary to law, Westpac intends by this notice to exclude liability for the information. The information is subject to change without notice and Westpac is under no obligation to update the information or correct any inaccuracy which may become apparent at a later date. Westpac Banking Corporation is regulated for the conduct of investment business in the United Kingdom by the Financial Services Authority. © 2004 Westpac Banking Corporation. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The forecasts given in this document are predictive in character. Whilst every effort has been taken to ensure that the assumptions on which the forecasts are based are reasonable, the forecasts may be affected by incorrect assumptions or by known or unknown risks and uncertainties. The ultimate outcomes may differ substantially from these forecasts.

 

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