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| | Email EU Market Update: UK Final Q1 GDP YoY reading revised lower; Germany net unemployment falls for first time in four months

Thursday, June 27, 2013 5:43:27 AM EU Market Update: UK Final Q1 GDP YoY reading revised lower; Germany net unemployment falls for first time in four months

- (CN) China PBOC not conducting routine liquidity operations for today's session - financial press; Overall, PBoC set to inject CNY25B into money market this week due to maturing transactions (CNY28B was injected during the prior week)
- Japan investors sold net 1.19T in Foreign Bonds last week (6th straight week of net sells; largest amount since Apr 2012
- EU finance ministers: EU states reach political deal on bank bail-in rules </
>- Spain Retail Sales registers its 31st straight monthly decline
- German Net Change in Unemployment falls for the first time in four months
- UK Q34 Final GDP YoY reading revised lower to +0.3%
- Italy 5-year and 10-year auction goes relatively smooth; borrowing costs rise but mixed bid-to-covers

***Economic Data***
- (JP) Japan Apr All Industry Activity Index M/M: 0.4% v 0.4%e
- (DE) Germany May Import Price Index M/M:-0.4% v -0.2%e; Y/Y: -2.9% v -2.6%e
- (DE) Germany May ILO Employment: 41.797 v 41.788M prior; Unemployment Rate: 5.3% v 5.4% prior
- (FI) Finland Jun Consumer Confidence: 8.1 v 5.0 prior; Business Confidence: -5 v -4 prior
- (FR) France Jun Consumer Confidence: 78 v 81e </
>- (ES) Spain May Adjusted Real Retail Sales Y/Y: -4.5% v -6.7%e (31st straight negative reading); Real Retail Sales Y/Y: -4.5% v -2.6% prior
- (ES) Spain Jun Preliminary Consumer Price Index Y/Y: 2.1% v 1.8%e; CPI EU Harmonized Y/Y: 2.2% v 2.0%e
- (DK) Denmark May Unemployment Rate: 4.4% v 4.5%e; Gross Unemployment Rate: 5.8% v 5.9%e
- (HU) Hungary May Unemployment Rate: 10.5% v 10.8%e
- (TR) Turkey Jun Consumer Confidence: 76.2 v 77.5 prior
- (EU) ECB 50.0M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 5.5B prior; 79.8B parked in deposit facility vs. 83.2B prior - Daily Eurosystem Liquidity Conditions
- (SE) Sweden May Trade Balance (SEK): 5.7B v 9.4B prior
- (DE) Germany Jun Net Change in Unemployment: -12K v +8Ke (first decline in four months); Unemployment Rate: 6.8% v 6.9%e
- (EU) Euro Zone May M3 Money Supply Y/Y: 2.9% v 2.9%e; M3 Money Supply three-month Avg: 2.9% v 2.8%
- (EU) Euro Area May Conference Board Leading Index: 107.3 v 106.9 prior
- (TW) Taiwan May Leading Index M/M: 0.7% v 0.4% prior; Coincident Index M/M: +0.2% v -0.2% prior
- (UK) Q1 Current Account: -14.5B v -12.0Be
- (UK) Q1 Final GDP Q/Q: 0.3% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 0.3% v 0.6%e
- (UK) Q1 Final Total Business Investment Q/Q: -1.9% v -0.4%e; Y/Y: -16.5% v 0.7%e
- (UK) Jun Lloyds Business Barometer: 36 v 39 prior
- (BE) Belgium Jun CPI M/M: 0.2 v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: 1.6 v 1.2% prior (6-month high)
- (TW) Taiwan Central Bank leaves Benchmark Interest Rate unchanged at 1.875%, as expected
- (PT) Portugal Jun Consumer Confidence: -53.9 v -55.0 prior; Economic Climate Indicator: -2.9 v -3.2 prior
- (EU) Euro Zone Jun Business Climate Indicator: -0.68 v -0.65e; Consumer Confidence: -18.8 v -18.8e; Economic Confidence: 91.3 v 90.4e; Industrial Confidence: -11.2 v -12.3e; Services Confidence: -9.5 v -8.5e
- (IS) Iceland Jun CPI M/M: 0.5% v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: 3.3% v 3.3% prior
- (ZA) South Africa May PPI M/M: 0.3% v 0.5%e; Y/Y:4.9 % v 5.2%e

Fixed Income: </
>- (IT) Italy Debt Agency (Tesoro) sold total vs. 5.0B indicated in 2018 and 2023 BTPs
- Sold 2.5B vs. 1.5-2.5B indicated range in 3.5% June 2018 BTP Bond; Avg Yield 3.47% v 3.01% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.3x v 1.40x prior
- Sold 2.5B v 1.5-2.5B indicated range in 4.50% Nov 2023 BTP bonds, Avg yield 4.55% v 4.14% prior' bid to cover 1.46x v 1.38x prior
- (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) sold total HUF32.5B in 2016, 2018 and 2023 Bonds


***Equities*** </
>FTSE 100 +0.40% at 6,187, DAX +0.10% at 7,945, CAC-40 -0.10% at 3,722, IBEX-35 -1.2% at 7,725, FTSE MIB -0.20% at 15,331, SMI +0.40% at 7,580, S&P 500 Futures +0.20% at 1,597

- Equity markets in Europe are trading mixed, following the sharp gains seen on Wednesday. Global bond yields are broadly lower, as central bankers continue to talk down rates. The Spain IBEX-35, which outperformed on Wed, has lagged on today's session. Also, European banks have underperformed following the prior session's gains. Additionally, the weakness in the financial sector comes as euro zone officials released the details related to the bank bail-in plan. Resource-related firms are mostly higher, tracking the rebound in commodity prices. US data releases for later today include May personal spending, May Core PCE inflation, weekly initial jobless claims and May pending home sales. Also, Fed speakers due to comment include Dudley and Lockhart.

- UK movers: [Nighthawk Energy +8% (oil find), DS Smith +5% (FY profits rose y/y, raised dividend), Carillion +4% (contract award), CSR +3.5% (raised outlook), Greene King +3% (FY profits above ests), Tate & Lyle +1% (broker commentary)]
- Germany movers [Morphosys +15% (agreement with Celgene), Adidas +2.7% (broker commentary), Sky Deutschland +2% (IPTV agreement with Vodafone), Allianz +1.3% (broker commentary), Fresenius Medical Care +1.5% (broker commentary); Lanxess -4.5% (broker commentary), BASF -2.5% (broker commentary)]

Speakers: </
>- German Chancellor Merkel commented in her Parliament on upcoming EU Leader Summit that the EU growth agenda included free trade deal with US . She noted that jobs would be lost unless EU got a spending plan deal. She noted that first important signal on jobs was appearing in Europe. Could have a reduction of debt and an economic expansion
- Portugal and the Troika were said to discuss changes to pension proposals ahead of the 8th rescue assessment which included increase in retirement age
- France State Auditor stated that 2013 GDP was seen flat with public deficit to GDP seen at 4.0% vs. 3.7% target; need to take structural reforms
- ECB's Weidmann (Germany): Taxpayers should be the last resort in bank rescues
- ECB's Nowotny (Austria): Huge problems remained in real economy. Central banks could help with unemployment but cannot solve it
- ECB's Knot (Netherlands) commented in Parliament on financial system that it was relatively quiet in financial markets at this time while the process of return of market trust had stagnated recently
- Hungary Central Bank gov Matolcsy reiterated view that sees more scope for cutting rates
- Hungary Central Bank Inflation Report noted that interest rates might need to rise if risk outlook worsened
- Sweden PM Reinfeldt rejected Industry proposal to introduce trading band or ceiling for SEK currency (Krona) to help the competitiveness of exporters
- Bank of Spain to limit dividend payouts by Spain banks to 30% of profits for 2013
- Russia Econ Min Ulyukayev: Russia plans RUB1.7Tin asset sales during 2013-16 period
- UK Treasury Chief Sec Alexander: Clear UK economy was moving towards recovery; Would invest 300B by the end of decade
- S&P commented on Europe and noted it saw waning recession concerns in EMU but no meaningful recovery. Raised its 2013 growth estimate for the UK and lowered projections for Germany and Italy, while cutting inflation forecast for the eurozone.
- G20 Finance Ministers likely to discuss the effect of tapering of easy monetary policy at the upcoming July meeting in Moscow. Finance Ministers would be interested in hearing China's view on the tapering matter according to Japanese officials
- Chile Fin Min Larrain said he was concerned by slowdown in China and impact on copper prices. Remained critical of way US handled QE measures. QE seen as unchartered waters; tapering process will not be an easy task
- Japan Ministry of Finance (MOF) again extended its FX monitoring process until Sept (half-year end) (**Insight: The forex position monitoring was introduced in the summer of 2011 as part of efforts to tame the yen's strength)
- China Finance Minister: Difficult to achieve Central Govt Budget Targets for 2013
- South Korean spokesperson: China backed South Korean plan for dialog with North Korea

Currencies/Fixed Income:
- FX markets saw a quiet session overall as concerns over the Fed's potential tapering has receded given recent central bank speak and softer UD Q1 final GDP reading.
- The EUR/USD managed to hold above the 1.30 handle in the session and only managed to get a slight boost from the EU finance ministers' agreement on rules for bail-ins. The ECB speaker slate continued to paint a dovish tone in terms of keeping an accommodative policy for the foreseeable future. Analysts see Draghi seen being more dovish with forward-looking communication at July 4th meeting in order to talk down short-term rates.
- The GBP currency was softer after the UK released final Q1 GDP and current account data. The lower YoY GDP revision weighed upon the GBP/USD pair to sent it below 1.5280. The JPY was back in sync with Nikkei equity moves. The USD/JPY pair moved above the 98 handle as the Nikkei225 Index surged almost 3%.

-Political/In the Papers:
- (EU) ECB's Asmussen (Germany): Monetary policy remains expansionary, to remain so for as long as necessary; it is clearly too early for the ECB exit policy - comments in Paris
- (EU) ECB's Noyer: Accommodative policy will help boost recovery later in the year; Accommodative policy will remain for as long as necessary
- (EU) ECB's Mersch: Will continue with accommodative policy, reiterates there will not be exit from policy in the foreseeable future.
- (EU) EU finance ministers: EU states reach political deal on bank bail-in rules - financial press: Bail-in deal sees resolution fund, deposit guarantee at 1.3% of covered deposits via a bank tax; New rules to begin in 2018; All unsecured bond holders must be wiped out before a troubled bank can receive funds from the ESM
- (EU) EU bank bail-in draft: EU to exclude 7-day Inter-bank loans from bail-in
- (EU) EU's Dijsselbloem: Concerned about higher interest rates
- (PT) Troika has approved disbursement of next aid tranche for Portugal
- (PT) Portugal strike to halt trains and Lisbon metro today- press
- (CN) China PBOC not conducting routine liquidity operations for today's session - financial press; Overall, PBoC set to inject CNY25B into money market this week due to maturing transactions (CNY28B was injected during the prior week)
- Some local govt failed to meet annual fiscal revenue expectations in the first five months amid economy slowdown - financial press

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (EU) EU Leaders Hold Summit in Brussels
- (IE) Ireland Fin Min Noonan in Dublin
- (CN) China Lujiazui Forum in Shanghai
- (CA) Conservative Party of Canada Convention
- OECD Economic Survey of Iceland
- (CO) Colombia May Central Govt Budget: No est v $3.1B prior
- (ES) Spain Apr Total Housing Permits M/M: No est v -23.0% prior; Y/Y: No est v -35.0% prior
- (BR) Brazil May Central Govt Budget (BRL): No est v 7.2B prior
- 06:00 (EU) EU's Rehn with Estonia PM Ansip at pre-summit meeting
- 06:00 (IE) Ireland Q1 GDP Q/Q: 0.3%e v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: 0.6%e v 0.0% prior; Current Account: No est v 2.9B prior
- 06:00 (CZ) Czech Republic to sell 12-month Bills
- 06:30 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:00 (RU) Russia Gold & Forex Reserve w/e Jun 21st: No est v $519.4B prior
- 07:00 (CZ) Czech Central Bank Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave Repo Rate unchanged at 0.05%
- 07:00 (BR) Brazil Jun FGV Inflation IGP-M M/M: 0.7%e v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: 6.3%e v 6.2% prior
- 07:30 (EU) EU's Alumunia at Spain Competition conference
- 07:30 (BR) Brazil Central Bank Quarterly Inflation Report
- 08:00 (BR) Brazil May Manufacturing PPI M/M: No est v 0.4% prior; Y/Y: No est v 5.5% prior
- 08:30 (US) May Personal Income: 0.2%e v 0.0% prior; Personal Spending: 0.3%e v 0.2% prior </
>- 08:30 (US) May PCE Deflator M/M: +0.1%e v -0.3% prior; Y/Y: 1.1%e v 0.7% prior
- 08:30 (US) May PCE Core M/M: 0.1%e v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: 1.1%e v 1.1% prior
- 08:30 (US) Initial Jobless Claims: 345Ke v 354K prior; Continuing Claims: 2.953Me v 2.951M prior
- 08:30 (US) Weekly USDA Net Export Sales
- 08:30 (CA) Canada Apr Average Weekly Earnings Y/Y: No est v 3.1% prior
- 10:00 (US) Fed's Dudley on Labor Market in NY
- 10:00 (US) May Pending Home Sales M/M: 1.0%e v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: 8.3%e v 13.9% prior
- 10:30 (US) Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventories
- 10:30 (BR) Brazil to sell 2014, 2015 and 2017 Bills
- 10:30 (US) Fed's Powell speaks on Monetary Policy in Washington
- 11:00 (US) Jun Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity: 3e v 2 prior
- 11:00 (US) Fed to purchase $4.25-5.25B in Notes
- 11:00 (EU) European Medicines Agency Releases Safety Decisions
- 12:30 (US) Fed's Lockhart Speaks on the Economy in Marietta, Georgia </
>- 13:00 (EU) ECB's Mersch (Luxembourg) speaks in Hachenburg, Germany
- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell $29B in 7-Year Notes
-15:00 (AR) Argentina May Supermarket Sales Y/Y: No est v 11.8% prior
- 19:30 (JP) Japan May National CPI Y/Y: -0.5%e v -0.7% prior; CPI Ex-Food&Emergy Y/Y: No est v -0.6% prior </
>- 19:30 (JP) Japan May Preliminary Industrial Production M/M: 0.2%e v 0.9% prior; Y/Y: -1.1%e v -3.4% prior




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