Thursday June 27, 2013 - 20:42:10 GMT
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Westpac Institutional Bank - www.westpac.co.nz
Forex - Westpac Morning Report
Morning Report Friday 28 June 2013
Global market sentiment: Sentiment improved for a third consecutive day. The Eurostoxx 50 rose 0.7% while the S&P500 is currently up 0.8%. Equity markets liked the bullish cocktail of improving fundamentals (US personal income and pending home sales beat consensus) and dovish Fedspeak (Dudley, Powell and Lockhart added nothing new but accentuated the conditional element of last week’s tapering signal). There was also dovish ECB-speak from Asmussen and Mersch.
Interest rates: US 10yr treasury bonds yields fell from 2.54% to 2.46%, with only minor and brief bounces on the US data surprises. Demand at a 7yr auction was strong, awarded at 1bp below market yield with a bid-cover ratio of 2.6 (vs 2.7 average).
Australian 3yr government bonds yields fell from 2.86% to 2.81% matching the previous day’s low. The 10yr yield ground lower from 3.83% to 3.79%.
Currencies: The US dollar index made a fresh four-week early NY but then retraced. EUR consolidated between 1.3000 and 1.3057. USD/JPY rose from 98.00 to 98.57. AUD slipped from 0.9340 to 0.9263. NZD fell from 0.7853 to 0.7770. AUD/NZD bounced from 1.1875 to 1.1930.
US core PCE deflator up 0.1% in May. At 0.105% that was the first month since January with a core PCE deflator gain of (just) more than 0.1%. The report also showed a 0.3% rise in personal spending which reversed April’s revised 0.3% fall but suggest slower consumption growth thus far in Q2 relative to Q1’s downwardly revised 2.6% pace. Personal income was up 0.5%, with a 0.3% wage/salaries gain supplemented by other income growth. That lifted the savings rate to 3.2%, the highest for the year so far.
US initial jobless claims fell 9k to 346k in the week ended June 22. Abstracting from storm disruption and seasonality distortions, claims have fallen from a weekly average in much of H2 2012 around 370k to 350k so far this year, indicative of a slower pace of employee layoffs in 2013 (but not telling us anything about hiring).
US pending home sales jumped 6.7% in May, to be up 12.5% yr. More confirmation that the housing market has lifted off, though the altitude reached so far is modest compared to the heights reached in the first half of the last decade.
US Kansas City Fed factory index fell from 2 to –5 in June, its eighth sub zero reading in nine months, contrasting with the mostly stronger June readings from the other regional Fed factory surveys.
Euroland money supply M3 growth slowed from 3.2% yr to 2.9% yr in May, continuing to slow in part due to LTRO repayments. Private sector loan growth decelerated from –0.9% to –1.1% yr, with household credit barely growing at 0.2% yr, but business credit down –3.1% yr.
Event risk today: Locally we have NZ building permits and credit aggregates, and Australian credit aggregates. Tonight there’s US consumer sentiment and Chicago PMI to watch.
NZD/USD 1 day: This multi-day upward correction is running out of steam and risks testing 0.7750.
NZD/USD 1-3 month: A three-year trend support line was broken last week at 0.7760 and if sustained this week argues for 0.7455 next. Fed tapering expectations will remain a depressant and NZ’s economic data momentum is likely to slow during the next few months.
AUD/USD 1 day: This multi-day upward correction is running out of steam and risks testing 0.9245 and then 0.9200.
AUD/USD 1-3 month: The 16 May decisive break below a two-year contracting range was a very bearish signal pointing towards 0.9200 initially. Technically it could run as far as the low 0.80’s. The Australian data flow is unsupportive, and the RBA is likely to ease further to 2.0% by Q1 2014.
AUD/NZD 1 day: 1.1875 needs to hold for this multi-day upward correction to live a little longer and test 1.2000.
AUD/NZD 1-3 month: June’s consolidation persists but should eventually resume the trend decline towards 1.1500, possibly as far as 1.1100. Relative fundamentals (e.g. RBA easing to 2.0% vs RBNZ stuck at 2.5%) favour the NZD medium term.
NZ swap yields 1 day: Taking the lead from US and Australian bond yields overnight (see above) the 2yr should open down 1bp at 3.18%. The 10yr should open down 1bp at 4.51%.
NZ swap yields 1-3 month: The uptrend since June 2012 remains intact. By late-2013 we would expect to see the 2yr above 3.40% based on NZ’s improving fundamentals and eventual RBNZ tightening in 2014. The US-influenced 10yr yield has also confirmed its uptrend and targets 4.68% next.
Westpac Banking Corporation ABN 33 007 457 141 incorporated in Australia (NZ division). Information current as at 28 June 2013. All customers please note that this information has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Because of this you should, before acting on this information, consider its appropriateness, having regard to your objectives, financial situation or needs. Australian customers can obtain Westpac’s
financial services guide by calling +612 9284 8372, visiting www.westpac.com.au or visiting any Westpac Branch. The information may contain material provided directly by third parties, and while such material is published with permission, Westpac accepts no responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of any such material. Except where contrary to law, Westpac intends by this notice to exclude liability for the information. The information is subject to change without
notice and Westpac is under no obligation to update the information or correct any inaccuracy which may become apparent at a later date. Westpac Banking Corporation is registered in England as a branch (branch number BR000106) and is authorised and regulated by The Financial Services Authority. Westpac Europe Limited is a company registered in England (number 05660023) and is authorised and regulated by The Financial Services Authority. © 2010 Westpac Banking Corporation. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The forecasts given in this document are predictive in character. Whilst every effort has been taken to ensure that the assumptions on which the forecasts are based are reasonable, the forecasts may be affected by incorrect assumptions or by known or unknown risks and uncertainties. The ultimate outcomes may differ substantially from these forecasts.
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