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Friday June 28, 2013 - 10:09:56 GMT
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TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: ECB officials downplay reports of the central bank considering a QE program

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: ECB officials downplay reports of the central bank considering a QE program
Fri, 28 Jun 2013 5:45 AM EST

***Notes/Observations***
- Plethora of Japanese data shows Abenomics on track (strong industrial output, retail sales, and rising inflation)
- PBoC Gov Zhou pledges to fine-tune policies at right time, defends China's "fast and stable" growth; -China Fixes: 7 day repo -66bp at 6.19%; overnight repo -55bp at 5.05%
- EU Leader Summit: Leaders agree to deploy 8.0B to help create jobs for young people; backed a tentative deal on EU 7-year budget
- ECB plays down press reports of possible QE coming


***Economic Data***
- (RU) Russia Narrow Money Supply w/e Jun 24th (RUB): 7.84T v 7.81T prior
- (JP) Japan May Vehicle Production Y/Y: -6.2 v -6.5% prior
- (JP) Japan May Annualized Housing Starts: 1.027M950Ke; Y/Y: 14.5% v 6.1%e; Construction Orders Y/Y: 26.0% v 2.0% prior
- (UK) Jun Nationwide House Prices M/M: 0.3% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 1.9% v 2.1%e
- (DE) Germany May Retail Sales M/M: 0.8% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 0.4% v 0.2%e

- (ZA) South Africa May M3 Money Supply Y/Y:9.8 % v 9.7%e; Private Sector Credit Y/Y: 9.1% v 9.0%e
- (FI) Finland Apr Final Trade Balance: -59M v -35M prelim
- (FI) Finland May House Price Index M/M: +0.2% v -0.2% prior; Y/Y: 1.4% v 1.4% prior
- (HU) Hungary Q1 Current Account: 549M v 125Me
- (FR) France May Producer Prices M/M: -1.2% v -0.3%e; Y/Y: -0.1% v 1.0%e
- (FR) France May Consumer Spending M/M: +0.5% v -0.1%e; Y/Y: 0.6% v 0.3%e
- (DK) Denmark Q1 Final GDP Q/Q: 0.0% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: -0.7% v -0.8%e
- (CH) Swiss Jun KOF Swiss Leading Indicator: 1.16 v 1.19e
- (HU) Hungary May Producer Prices M/M: -1.2% v -1.2% prior; Y/Y: -1.3% v -1.1%e
- (TR) Turkey May Trade Balance: -$9.9B v -$10.4Be
- (AT) Austria May Producer Price Index M/M: -0.4% v -0.3% prior; Y/Y: -1.1% v -1.0% prior
- (EU) ECB 13M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 50.0M prior; 90.1B parked in deposit facility vs. 79.8B prior - Daily Eurosystem Liquidity Conditions
- (SE) Sweden May Retail Sales M/M: 0.8% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 3.1% v 2.5%e
- (TH) Thailand May Current Account Balance: -$1.1B v -$2.0Be; Total Trade Account Balance: +$0.5B v -$1.6B prior; Overall Trade Balance: $355M v $305M prior; Total Exports Y/Y: -4.9% v 3.7% prior; Total Imports Y/Y: -5.1% v 8.5% prior
- (TH) Thailand May Business Sentiment Index: 53.9 v 48.8 prior
- (DE) Germany Jun CPI Brandenburg M/M: 0.2% v 0.4% prior; Y/Y: 1.7% v 1.4% prior
- (DE) Germany Jun CPI Hesse M/M: 0.2% v 0,5% prior; Y/Y: 1.6% v 1.4% prior
- (DE) Germany Jun CPI Bavaria M/M: 0.1 v 0.4% prior; Y/Y: 1.8 v 1.5% prior
- (IT) Italy Jun Business Confidence: 90.2 v 88.9e; Economic Sentiment: 76.1 v 80 prior
- (CZ) Czech May Money Supply Y/Y: 3.8% v 4.4% prior
- (NO) Norway Jun Unemployment Rate: 2.5% v 2.5%e
- (NO) Norway May Retail Sales w/Auto Fuel M/M: 1.8% v 0.5%e
- (ES) Spain Apr Current Account: -0.3B v +1.4B prior
- (CN) China State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE): End of March, outstanding foreign debt $765B v $737B q/q
- (HK) Hong Kong May M3 Money Supply Y/Y: 11.2 v 9.4% prior; M3 Money Supply Y/Y: % v 9.3% prior; M1 Money Supply Y/Y: % v 15.5% prior
- (UK) Apr Index of Services M/M: 0.2% v 0.1%e; Index of Services 3M/3M: 0.8% v 1.1%e
- (IS) Iceland May Final Trade Balance (ISK): -6.7B v -6.6B prelim
- (IT) Italy Jun Preliminary CPI (NIC incl. Tobacco) M/M: 0.3% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 1.2% v 1.1%e
- (IT) Italy Jun Preliminary CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 0.3% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 1.4% v 1.3%e
- (GR) Greece Apr Retail Sales Volume Y/Y: -14.2 v -5.6% prior; Retail Sales Value Y/Y: -14.7 v -5.7% prior
- (DE) Germany Jun CPI North Rhine Westphalia M/M: 0.2% v 0.4% prior; Y/Y: 2.1% v 1.7% prior
- (GR) Greece Apr Producer Prices (PPI) M/M: 0.1% v -1.3% prior; Y/Y: -1.1% v -2.7% prior

Fixed Income:
- (IN) India sold total INR140B vs. INR140B indicated in 2020, 2025 and 2032 and 2035 bonds

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***

***Equities***
FTSE 100 +0.24% at 6,258
, DAX +0.20% at 8,005, CAC-40 -0.10% at 3,759, IBEX-35 +0.10% at 7,855, FTSE MIB -0.40% at 15,372, SMI -0.10% at 7,664, S&P 500 Futures +0.40% at 1,613

- Equity markets in Europe are mixed. Italy's FTSE MIB has underperformed, while slight outperformance has been seen for the FTSE 100. Resource related companies are mixed, in line with what has been seen with commodity prices. Banks are currently mixed. Most of the UK-listed banks are trading higher, while French and Italian banks have lagged. Commerzbank's shares have rebounded, as the firm has underperformed for most of the week. Economic data due to be released later today includes Germany's June CPI, US June Chicago PMI and US June Final University of Michigan Confidence data. Fed speakers due to make comments include Stein, Lacker, Pianalto and Williams.

- UK movers [Serco +4% (H1 sales growth above target), Schroders +2.5%% (broker commentary), Debenhams +1% (broker commentary), Unilever +1% (broker commentary), Vodafone +1% (broker commentary), Greene King +1% (broker commentary); BAE Systems -2% (broker commentary), Homeserve -1.5% (broker commentary)]
- Germany movers [Commerzbank +3% (vague takeover speculation, reverses recent underperformance), ThyssenKrupp +2.5% (speculation related to possible investment); SGL Carbon -5% (profit warning), Munich Re -1% (broker commentary), HannoverRe -1% (broker commentary)]
- France movers [Bioalliance Pharma -5.5% (capital raise), Air France -4% (concerns about Q2 results), Peugeot -3% (Family owners play down merger speculation)]

Speakers:
- China Vice President stated that the country would be abke to maintain growth rate over 7% in the future
(**compates to 7.5% official target)
- German press report noted that ECB working group was considering QE like purchases in which it would buy bonds of all euro countries for purposes of monetary policy. It noted that ECB laws might allow widespread bond purchases. ECB believed the current situation was serious and noted some experts had spoken about quantitative easing (QE). ECB was considering the program as it awaited the German constitutional court ruling on the OMT. The article cited a Morgan Stanley economist as saying that the ECB could first have to exhaust all other convention measures before engaging in additional bond purchases.
- ECB Spokesman commented that the German article on QE was 'completely wrong"
- ECB's Asmussen also commented on the article. He noted that ECB's 360-degree thinking was only on credit supply and any other discussions in ECB was not policy relevant
- German Bundestag passed a 2013 supplemental budget with net borrowings of 25.1B v 17.1B prior target; increase due to flood aid
- German economic advisers council head Schmidt stated that the ECB interest rates might be low for years as govt struggle to rein in deficits. He noted that ECB has painted itself into a corner by announcing it would do anything to preserve the Euro. He added it was not the responsibility of monetary policy to solve structural problems of crisis countries. If fiscal policies remained oblivious to this responsibility the region could have low growth and low interest rates for years to come
- EU leaders formally endorsed Latvia bid to adopt the Euro on Jan 1st, 2014
- Austria WIFO Institute Quarterly Economic Forecasts saw it cut itss 2013 and 2014 GDP outlook. WIFO now saw 2013 GDP at 0.4% vs. 1.0% prior March view and 2014 GDP growth at 1.6% vs. 1.8% prior March view
- Greece PM Samaras commented that TAP pipeline meant 1.5B in FDI for Greece and the pipeline choice would put an end to Greek Euro exit and to boost tax income for Greece
- Finland Debt Agency commented on H2 issuance and completed 50% of 2013 long-term funding requirement. It saw 2013 Net borrowings around 7.8B. it planned a new Euro-denominated benchmark bond planned in H2 and likely to be a 5-year maturity and was also considering a USD-denominated benchmark bond in H2. It also saw 1-2 tap auction in H2. Bills issuance to be reopened after summer period
- South Africa Central Bank (SARB) Gov Marcus noted that markets were over-reacting to Fed Statement on potential tapering. She was delighted with lower inflation
- South Africa Chamber of Mines stated that Gold Mining companies to begin wage negotiations with unions on July 11th
- BoJ Dep Gov Nakaso commented that no additional easing measures was currently required and that JGB yields were at very stable levels. He added that recent inflation data supported view prices were trending upward. He also noted that markets 'overreacted' to Fed's Bernanke comments on tapering. He did not offer comment regarding any possible BoJ measures to soften planned sales tax hike impact. He did not that the July meeting would have the BoJ Board likely to discuss the credit situation in China.
- China Agricultural Development Bank of China said it provided loans of about CNY616B in the money markets since May
- China seeking to end tariffs related to certain goods from Hong Kong which related to less than 20 types of products from Hong Kong and about 10 products from Macau.
- Vietnam PM Dung stated that the country was facing economic challenges including inflation, low credit growth and weak market demand

Currencies/Fixed Income:
- JPY currency remain back in sync with Nikkei equity moves. The USD/JPY pair tested above the 99 handle late in the week as the Nikkei225 Index surged over 6% in the last two sessions (Thurs/Fri)
- The EUR/USD continued to hold above the 1.30 handle in limit price action into month end.
- The European peripheral yields began the session lower but much of the declines evaporated ahead of the NY morning. Press reports that ECB was considering QE attributed to the initial price action but the denials by ECB member Asmussen drained any enthusiasm. The Spanish 10-year gov't yield reverse earlier decline. It was around 4.80% ahead of the NY morning vs. 4.67% pre-European open .

-Political/In the Papers:
- (FR) France Pres Hollande: Premature to fix deficit target for 2013; France must mind spending for 2013. - financial press
- (FR) Some analysts believe that France's 2013 GDP forecast is too optimistic - Telegraph's Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
-(GR) Privatization of Opap under threat of collapse, which could increase pressure from Greece's creditors - FT
- (CY) Cyprus offers to exchange 1B in local govt bonds with five new bonds with maturities between 5 to 10 years and equal coupon rates
-(ES) Spain Budget Min Montoro: Working to repair individual deficit targets for Spanish regions; Tomorrow will introduce proposal to raise taxes on some products; will propose tax hikes on products with negative society impacts and will affect large companies. Announced regional deficit limits thru to 2016 with combined deficit to be at 1.3% of GDP in 2013 and falling to 0.2% in 2016; In 2013 each region will have its own target
- (CH) SNB Quarterly Bulletin: Reiterates bank is ready to defend 1.2000 floor with utmost determination, to buy currencies of unlimited quantities
- (UK) According to the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) a 6B tax increase could be required after the 2015 general election - London Telegraph
- (US) Fed's Dudley (dove, voter): Initial rate hikes are a long way off, could arrive well after 6.5% unemployment level is crossed; economy may diverge significantly from FOMC forecast; Recent market expectations for an earlier rate rise are "quite out of sync" with the statements and expectations of the FOMC; Fed is most likely to end QE asset purchases around a 7.0% unemployment rate, could wind down buying in 2014
- US) Fed's Lockhart (moderate, FOMC non-voter): Chairman Bernanke's comments on bond buying did not represent a very big shift in policy; the pace of bond buying depends entirely on the economy; Interest rate increases are likely to come sometime in 2015.
- (US) Fed's Powell (FOMC voter): Market expectations for a 2014 rate increase are out of line with the Fed's view, it is most likely that asset purchases will continue for some time; Will not even think about rates until unemployment hits the 6.5% threshold.
- (US) White House is said to be putting together a list of possible successors for Fed Chairman Bernanke; final decision will not be made until the fall - financial press; Report suggests there is no frontrunner for the position (contrary to some prior reports).
- (CN) PBoC Gov Zhou Xiaochuan: To fine-tune policies at right time; Pledges money market stability; Reiterates to use various monetary tools to adjust market liquidity. Reiterates to continue prudent monetary policy.
- (JP) Japan cabinet sets House of Councillors (upper house) election for Sunday, Jul 21st - Kyodo News

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (EU) EU Leaders Hold Summit continues in Brussels
- (EU) EBA Banking Shareholders Group Meeting
- (DE) Germany Jun CPI Baden Wuerttemberg M/M: No est v 0.5% prior; Y/Y: No est v 1.4% prior
- (ES) Spain May YTD Budget Balance: no est v -25.01B prior
- (CO) Colombia Central Bank Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave Overnight Lending Rate unchanged at 3.25%
- (RU) Russia Central Bank Q1 Balance of Payments
- 06:00 (IE) Ireland May Property Prices M/M: No est v 0.8% prior; Y/Y: No est v -1.2% prior
- 06:00 (IE) Ireland May Retail Sales Volume M/M: No est v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: No est v -0.5% prior
- 06:00 (IT) Italy May PPI M/M: -0.1%e v -0.5% prior; Y/Y: No est v -1.1% prior
- 06:00 (PT) Portugal May Industrial Production M/M: No est v -3.7% prior; Y/Y: No est v 1.8% prior
- 06:00 (PT) Portugal May Retail Sales M/M: No est v 0.4% prior; Y/Y: No est v -2.6% prior
- 06:00 (EU) ECB announces 3-Year LTRO Repayment
- 06:10 (UK) DMO to sell combined 2.0B in 1-month, 3-month and 6-month Bills
- 06:30 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:00 (EU) European Medicines Agency releases Drug Approvals
- 07:30 (IN) India Forex Reserves w/e Jun 21st: No est v $290.6B prior
- 08:00 (US) Fed's Stein on monetary policy in NY
- 08:00 (ES) ECB's Linde (Spain) in Madrid
- 08:00 (DE) Germany Jun Preliminary Consumer Price Index M/M: 0.0%e v 0.4% prior; Y/Y: 1.7%e v 1.5% prior
- 08:00 (DE) Germany Jun Preliminary CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 0.1%e v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: 1.8%e v 1.6% prior
- 08:00 (PL) Poland Central Bank (NBP) Jun Inflation Expectations: 0.7%e v 0.9% prior
- 08:00 (PL) Poland Q1 Current Account: -2.7Be v -3.5B prior
- 08:00 (ZA) South Africa May Budget Balance (ZAR): -15.0Be v -41.2B prior
- 08:00 (ZA) South Africa May Trade Balance (ZAR): -12.0Be v -15.0B prior
- 08:00 (ES) Spain Debt Agency (Tesoro) announce bonds in upcoming auction on Thursday, July 4th
- 08:30 (CA) Canada Apr Gross Domestic Product M/M: 0.1%e v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: 1.4%e v 1.7% prior
- 08:30 (CA) Canada May Industrial Product Price M/M: +0.1%e v -0.8% prior; Raw Materials Price Index M/M: 0.4%e v -2.2% prior
- 08:30 (CL) Chile Central Bank Meeting Minutes
- 08:30 (US) USDA Releases 2013 Acreage Report
- 09:00 (DE) German Fin Min Schaeuble in Estonia
- 09:00 (US) Jun NAPM-Milwaukee: No est v 40.67 prior
- 09:00 (CL) Chile May Manufacturing Index: 2.0%e v 3.4% prior
- 09:00 (CL) Chile May Retail Sales Y/Y: 10.4%e v 11.2% prior
- 09:00 (CL) Chile May Total Copper Production: No est v 441.7K tons prior
- 09:00 (CL) Chile May Unemployment Rate: 6.5%e v 6.4% prior
- 09:15 (US) Fed's Lacker speaks on Economic Outlook in West Virginia
- 09:30 (BR) Brazil May Nominal Budget Balance (BRL): No est v -7.7B prior; Primary Budget Balance: 6.6Be v 10.3B prior; Net Debt to GDP ratio: No est v 35.4% prior
- 09:45 (US) Jun Chicago Purchasing Manager: 55.0e v 58.7 prior
- 09:55 (US) Jun Final University of Michigan Confidence: 83.0e v 82.7 prelim

- 10:00 (MX) Mexico May Net Outstanding Loans (MXP): No est v 2.323T prior
- 10:30 (UK) DMO Bill calender for July-Sept period
- 11:00 (US) Fed to purchase $1.25-1.75B in Notes
- 12:00 (CO) Colombia May National Unemployment Rate: No est v 10.2% prior; Urban Unemployment Rate: 11.0%e v 10.7% prior
- 12:00 (US) Fed's Pianalto in West Virginia
- 12:30 (EU) ECB's Costa (Portugal) at banking regulation conference

- 15:30 (US) Fed's Williams speaks on Monetary Policy in Sonoma, CA
- 15:30 (EU) EU's Barroso with Ireland PM Kenny and Spain PM Rajoy in Oporto
- 15:00 (AR) Argentina Apr Economic Activity Index M/M: No est v 0.7% prior; Y/Y: 5.0%e v 2.6% prior
- 15:00 (AR) Argentina May Construction Activity M/M: No est v -2.3% prior; Y/Y: No est v 11.4% prior
- 15:30 (MX) Mexico May YTD Budget Balance (MXN): No est v 39.8B prior
v 39.8B prior

 

 

 

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias


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