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Friday June 28, 2013 - 15:33:39 GMT
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| | Email US Market Update: Third Quarter Ends with a Whimper US Market Update: Third Quarter Ends with a Whimper
Fri, 28 Jun 2013 11:21 AM EST

***Economic Data***
- (IE) Ireland May Property Prices M/M: 0.3 v 0.8% prior; Y/Y: -1.1 v -1.2% prior
- (IE) Ireland May Retail Sales Volume M/M: 0.1% v 0.4% prior; Y/Y: -0.7 v -0.4% prior
- (IT) Italy May PPI M/M: -0.1% v -0.1%e; Y/Y: -1.1% v -1.1% prior
- (PT) Portugal May Industrial Production M/M: +6.1 v -3.2% prior; Y/Y: 4.4% v 2.4% prior
- (PT) Portugal May Retail Sales M/M: 1.9 v 0.6% prior; Y/Y: -3.5% v -2.1% prior
- (DE) Germany Jun CPI Baden Wuerttemberg M/M: 0.1 v 0.5% prior; Y/Y: 1.7 v 1.4% prior
- (IN) India Forex Reserves w/e Jun 21st: $287.9B v $290.6B prior
- (DE) Germany Jun Preliminary Consumer Price Index M/M: 0.1% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: 1.8% v 1.7%e
- (DE) Germany Jun Preliminary CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 0.1% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 1.9% v 1.8%e
- (PL) Poland Central Bank (NBP) Jun Inflation Expectations: 0.4% v 0.7%e
- (PL) Poland Q1 Current Account: -2.1B v -2.7Be
- (ZA) South Africa May Budget Balance (ZAR): -17.5BB v -15.0Be
- (ZA) South Africa May Trade Balance (ZAR): -11.0B v -12.0Be
- (CA) Canada Apr Gross Domestic Product M/M: 0.1% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 1.4% v 1.4%e
- (CA) Canada May Industrial Product Price M/M: 0.0% v 0.1%e; Raw Materials Price Index M/M: 0.2% v 0.4%e
- (US) Jun NAPM-Milwaukee: 51.55 v 45.20e
- (CL) Chile May Manufacturing Index: 1.7%e
- (CL) Chile May Retail Sales Y/Y: 13.2% v 10.3%e
- (CL) Chile May Total Copper Production: 475,1K v 441.7K tons prior
- (CL) Chile May Unemployment Rate: 6.4% v 6.5%e
- (ES) Spain May YTD Budget Balance: -33.3B v -25.01B prior
- (BR) Brazil May Nominal Budget Balance (BRL): -14.5B v -7.7B prior; Primary Budget Balance:5.7B v 6.6Be; Net Debt to GDP ratio: 34.8% v 34.6%e
- (US) Jun Chicago Purchasing Manager: 51.6 v 55.0e
- (US) Jun Final University of Michigan Confidence: 84.1 v 83.0e
- (MX) Mexico May Net Outstanding Loans (MXP): 2.351T v 2.365Te

- The second quarter comes to a close today, and data, rebalancing and quarter-end flows are making for a choppy session. As of writing the DJIA is flat, the S&P500 is up 0.04% and the Nasdaq is up 0.26%.

- The June Chicago PMI missed expectations and big drop-offs were seen in key sub indices. The backlog sub index dropped to 38.4 from 53 prior, while deliveries also dropped below 50. The soft data report coincided with the lows in equities and the move higher in treasury yields. In addition, gold made a leg higher, with spot gold jumping back above $1,200.

- FOMC voter Stein became the latest Fed governor to deliver markets a stern talking to regarding policy, tapering and rates. Like many of his colleagues, Stein underlined that at at the June FOMC meeting on June 19th, the Fed's policy stance was left broadly unchanged and nothing was said about changing interest rates. When tapering does eventually begin, the Fed will look back on all of the data since QE began to make a decision on a taper not just the most current data. Treasuries softened in the wake of his speech, with the 10-year yield topping out around 2.55% around 10:00ET when the soft data sent it back below 2.50%.

- Quarter end flows, improved risk appetite and good Japanese data drove USD/JPY over 99.00 in overnight trade. EUR/USD upside was limited to around 1.3170 after solid support around 1.3000 held up.

- BlackBerry severely disappointed investors with its Q1 report this morning. Hopes were high for a glimmer of hope from BB10 sales, although none was forthcoming. The firm saw a small loss in the quarter versus expectations for a profit, and it warned the same would be the case in Q2. It shipped shipped 2.7M BB10 handsets in the quarter (~40% of overall shipments in the quarter), undershooting expectations. BBRY is down more than 27% as of writing.

- Nike reported higher profits and better advance orders, particularly in North America, in Q4. Future orders for delivery between June and November were +8% y/y v +6% y/y last quarter. Revenue in North America was very strong. However cautious comments on Q1 on the conference call sent shares lower, leaving NKE around -3% mid morning.

- Shares of JetBlue spiked up as much as 8% this morning on a sketchy report in Brazil's Folha de S. Paulo that Brazil airline Azul - run by JetBlue founder David Neeleman - was planning to buy JetBlue and possibly Portugal's TAP as well. The reports were subsequently denied although JBLU is still up 6%.

***Looking Ahead***
- 12:00 (CO) Colombia May National Unemployment Rate: No est v 10.2% prior; Urban Unemployment Rate: 10.8%e v 10.7% prior
- 12:00 (US) Fed's Pianalto in West Virginia
- 12:30 (EU) ECB's Costa (Portugal) at banking regulation conference
- 12:00 (US) USDA Releases 2013 Acreage Report
- 12:00 (US) USDA Quarterly Grain Stock Report
- 15:15 (CO) Colombia Central Bank Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave Overnight Lending Rate unchanged at 3.25%
- 15:30 (US) Fed's Williams speaks on Monetary Policy in Sonoma, CA
- 15:30 (EU) EU's Barroso with Ireland PM Kenny and Spain PM Rajoy in Oporto
- 15:00 (AR) Argentina May Construction Activity M/M: No est v -2.3% prior; Y/Y: No est v 11.4% prior
- 15:30 (MX) Mexico May YTD Budget Balance (MXN): No est v 39.8B prior




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