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Japanese Tankan Survey starts a busy week
|Japanese Tankan Survey starts a busy week|
1 July 2013 00:00 gmt
CALENDAR Far East: AU- Mfg PMI, JP- Tankan Survey. CN- NBS/HSBC PMIs. Europe:CH/FR/DE/EZ/GB- PMIs, EZ- HICP (CPI), Unemployment. North America: CA- Holiday. US- Markit PMI, Construction Spending, ISM PMI
- HIGH IMPACT ITEMS: AU- Mfg PMI, JP- Tankan Survey. CN- NBS/HSBC PMIs, CH/FR/DE/EZ/GB- PMIs, EZ- HICP (CPI), CA- Holiday US- Markit PMI, ISM PMI
- The Fed spent the better part of the latest week inexplicably trying to clarify the crystal clear road-map laid out by Chairman Bernanke for extricating itself from QE3, its asset purchase program, and the criteria for an eventual rise in interest rates. We think the Fed felt the need to "clarify" the message because central bankers were unhappy with the market reaction to its message.
- Clearly, the central bank had not discussed with active Fixed Income market participants what the reaction of the markets would be to the PROSPECT of an end to QE. To us it was obvious that the market would react immediately to the announcement. and would not wait for the tapering of asset purchases to start. Markets discount everything they know now. That is why traders typically "buy the rumor and sell the fact".
- This week ahead will be one of the busiest data weeks of the year. It features the Canada Day holiday on Monday and also the U.S. Independence Day holiday on Thursday, which could disrupt the normal flow of the market.
- The Bank of Japan quarterly Tankan Survey early Monday. This period also sees a slew of global PMI index releases.
- Central bank decisions by the Reserve Bank of Australia Tuesday, and on Thursday rate decisions by the Bank of England and European Central Bank.
- This week also will see Key U.S. employment data for the month of June.
||JGB 0.85% +2bp
||Asia Close Higher|
||Bund 1.70% -5bp
||U.S. 2.49% +1bp
||U.S. Mixed |
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John M. Bland, an author and a founding partner of Global-View.com, has been a corporate FX consultant for a major N.Y. bank, a forex trader for a major N.Y. institution, and an FX analyst for a blue chip Fed watching service.. John has an MBA in International Finance and an A.B. in Economics from the University of California at Berkeley.
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John M. Bland, MBA
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias
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