Monday July 1, 2013 - 03:39:49 GMT
Share This Story
FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
Morning Briefing : 01-Jul-2013 -0336 GMT
The week starts on a sombre/ cautious note today. Expect the markets to be quiet ahead of the crucial US NFP data on Friday.
Asia-Pac indices are mostly trading lower today ranging from -0.07% (China) to -1.45% (Australia). The Dow (14909.60, -114.89, -0.76%) had closed lower on Friday, failing to sustain above 15000. The best case scenario for the Dow for a week or two is range trade between 14600-15200.
Crucial movements happening in commodities. Gold down, Silver up, Brent ranged, Copper in danger of falling.
Gold (1242) has bounced a decent bit after dipping below 1200 on Friday. However, it has Resistance at 1250 now and remains in a downtrend targeting 1150 while the Resistance holds. Silver (19.69) has shown a strong bounce from 18 on Friday, in line with our expectations. It needs to stay above 19 now in order to be able to rise towards 20-21.
Brent (101.69) is steady, ranged between 100-103 or 100-104.
Copper (3.0610) is struggling to remain above 3.00 and 3.05. Failure to rise past 3.10 this week could be fatal. Watch this one carefully.
Strength in the Dollar continues. The Dollar Index (83.22) is headed up towards 84.00. The Yen (99.32) is weak and is targeting 100. The Euro (1.3020), Pound (1.5210) and Aussie (0.9171) are weak. That said, while the Dollar remains strong and may strengthen further this week, it will start looking expensive by the end of the week and we may see a retracement next week. For the week, of course, the Dollar looks strong.
The R-currencies are showing divergence with each other. The Rand and Ringgitt are relatively stronger while the Real is weaker and the Rouble is stable. Dollar-Rupee trades higher near 59.52 on the NDF market today, as compared to Friday's close near 59.3950.
The US 10-Yr Yield (2.51%) moved up a bit on Friday, from levels near 2.46% earlier. So, the market is still skittish, despite the Fed officials trying to talk the yield down a bit. We see Resistance at 2.65% and see decent chances that it may be tested in the early part of the month.
The Germany-US 10-Yr Spread (-0.78%) is weakening again and should keep the Euro pressured on the downside for this week at least. The Indo-US 10-Yr Spread (5.09%) remains in a downtrend for now and can target 4.75% in a week or two. This should keep the Rupee pressured as well.
23:20 GMT or 4:50 IST AU PMI
...Actual 49.6 ...Previous 43.80
23:50 GMT or 5:20 IST JP Tankan Large Manufacturers Index
...Actual 4...Expected 3.00 ...Previous -8.00
4:30 GMT or 10:00 IST IN PMI
7:15 GMT or 12:45 IST EU PMI
...Expected 48.9 ...Previous 48.10
7:30 GMT or 13:00 IST CH PMI
...Expected 52.5 ...Previous 52.2
8:30 GMT or 14:00 IST UK PMI
...Expected 51.3 ...Previous 51.3
9:00 GMT or 14:30 IST EU Unemp
...Expected 12.30 ...Previous 12.20
14:00 GMT or 19:30 IST US Manufacturing ISM
...Expected 50.6 ...Previous 49.0
UK Cons Conf
...Actual -21 ...Previous -22
...Actual 52.30 ...Previous 51.50
...Actual 4.10 % ...Previous 4.10 %
...Actual 0.10 % ...Previous 0.20 %
Forex Trading News
Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research
headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports
provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex
market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing
other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the
headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest
forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less
recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines
and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports
from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."