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ECB and BOE surprise markets with dovish tone. U.S. jobs Friday
|ECB and BOE surprise markets with dovish tone. U.S. jobs Friday|
5 July 2013 00:00 gmt
CALENDAR Far East: JP- LEI. Europe: DE- Factory Orders. North America: CA- Employment, Ivey PMI. US- Employment, COT.Report
- HIGH IMPACT ITEMS: US/CA- Employment, CA- Ivey PMI
- U.S. June employment data are due Friday.. The.focus Fed is the unemployment 7.00% "target " rate for tapering of its asset purchases. 6.50% is the "threshold for starting to consider interest rate hikes.
- Canadian June employment and the Ivey PMI index are due as well.
- The Bank of England rate decision saw no rate change as widely expected. This was the first meeting with former BOC Governor Carney at the helm. The surprise came when the Bank of England released a policy statement which expressed concern about the impact of recent rate increases on the economy. The GBP fell sharply on this unexpected comment.
- Not to be outdone, the European Central Bank kept policy steady as well. But the ECB surprised the markets by giving forward rate guidance for the first time, saying it expects key interest rates to remain at present or lower levels for an extended period of time. Draghi said the Governing Council expectation was based on the subdued outlook for inflation. As for future decisions, Draghi said the ECB would monitor very closely all incoming economic and monetary data. .
||JGB 0.85% -3bp
||Asia Close Lower|
||Bund 1.67% -5bp
||U.S. 2.50% +3bp
||U.S. Closed |
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John M. Bland, an author and a founding partner of Global-View.com, has been a corporate FX consultant for a major N.Y. bank, a forex trader for a major N.Y. institution, and an FX analyst for a blue chip Fed watching service.. John has an MBA in International Finance and an A.B. in Economics from the University of California at Berkeley.
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John M. Bland, MBA
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 13:30 GMT US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing Statistic
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 23:30 GMT US- Yellen Speech. Early evening. Looking for anything on policy
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 13:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:00 GMT US- final University of Michigan Survey
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:30 GMT US- EIA Crude
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release
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