Wednesday July 10, 2013 - 03:37:04 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
Morning Briefing : 10-Jul-2013 -0334 GMT
Stocks are consolidating/ are doing alright. They seem to adjusting decently to prospects of higher interest rates. The Dow (15300.34, +0.50%) is up a decent bit and targets 15500. The Nikkei (14489, +0.12%) is up marginally but faces crucial Resistance near current levels.
The Nifty (5859, +0.82%) was up yesterday. It has been consolidating sideways and could be gearing up for a decent rise seeing that it is being able to hold on above 5700.
Rise in Crude and weakness in Copper is a worry.
Brent Crude (107.78) has risen again, suggesting medium term target of 110-112 may be justified. WTI Crude (104.40) is trading above crucial level of 104. If the rise sustains, we could be looking at 108 going forward.
Gold (1245) is consolidative within an overall downtrend. Silver (19.10) also looks bearish.
Copper (3.0435) is being unable to remain above 3.10. The picture could turn ugly in case of a break below 3.00-2.95.
The Euro (1.2772) has fallen sharply from the 1.29 in the US session. The German-US 2-Yr Spread (-0.29%) has fallen a bit, but still has Support near current levels. So, there could still be Support near 1.2745 on the Euro. Its curtains if that also breaks.
The Pound (1.4864) fell to a low near 1.4813 and is bouncing a bit from there. Some Support is seen in the 1.4830-10 region. But if that breaks, we can see 1.47 on the downside.
Dollar-Yen (101.10) is in much the same position as yesterday. It remains in an uptrend for now with Support at 100.80 and possible target of 103.40. But we also have to remember it has risen 7.4% since the beginning of June. So, we are nearing the end of the rise.
The Aussie (0.9142) is continuing to see some Short-covering, but faces crucial Resistance near 0.9225 this week. The Aussie has recovered a bit alongwith Gold, but the weakness in Copper is a worry.
The Rouble (33.035) has strengthened a bit in the last two days, as expected, as has the Rand (10.05). Even the Real (2.2612) is a tad stronger, but remains the weakest of the lot. The Rupee (60.15) gained yesterday of course, on RBI measures and intervention and has some chances of gaining further to 59.90-70.
Bond markets could be stabilising a bit.
The US 10-Yr (2.64%) continues to trade below the crucial Resistance at 2.75%. It has some chances of topping out, but could take time to do so.
The BOJ Meeting is on today. They are expected to stick to the same levels of bond purchases. The Japanese Bond Yield charts Resistances coming up 10-15 bp above current levels.
Yields in Europe have been stabilising sideways. As mentioend above, we see chances of a bounce in the German-US 2-Yr Spread (-0.29%). Support could be coming up for the Euro. Let's see.
5:07 GMT or 10:37 IST BOJ Meeting
...Expected <0.10 % ...Previous <0.10 %
UK Trade Balance
...Actual -8.50 £ (Bln) ...Previous -8.22 £ (Bln)
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