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Thursday July 11, 2013 - 05:07:42 GMT
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| | Email Asian Market Update: Dovish Bernanke comments gooses risk-on rally; USD plummets across the board while metals spike higher***Economic Data*** - Source

- (JP) BANK OF JAPAN (BOJ) POLICY STATEMENT: REITERATES TO INCREASE MONETARY BASE AT ANNUAL PACE OF 60-70T; LOWERS GDP AND INFLATION FORECASTS >- (AU) AUSTRALIA JUN EMPLOYMENT CHANGE: 10.3K V 0.0KE; UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: 5.7% V 5.6%E (highest reading since Oct 2009) - (AU) AUSTRALIA JUL CONSUMER INFLATION EXPECTATION: 2.6% V 2.3% PRIOR (9-month high) - (KR) BANK OF KOREA (BOK) LEAVES 7-DAY REPO RATE UNCHANGED AT 2.50% (AS EXPECTED) - (JP) JAPAN MAY MACHINE ORDERS M/M: 10.5% V 1.9%E; Y/Y: 16.5% V 3.3%E - (JP) JAPAN JUN TOKYO AVERAGE OFFICE VACANCIES: 8.5% V 8.3% PRIOR - (JP) Japan investors bought net 973.1B in Foreign Bonds last week (1st net purchase in 8 weeks) vs sold net 965.9B prior week; Foreign Investors bought net 486.9B in Japan stocks last week vs bought net 479.7B in prior week - (NZ) NEW ZEALAND JUN FOOD PRICES M/M: 2.1% V 0.3% PRIOR (3rd consecutive increase) - (NZ) NEW ZEALAND JUN BUSINESS NZ PMI: 54.7 V 59.0 PRIOR - (NZ) NEW ZEALAND JUN ANZ TRUCKOMETER HEAVY TRAFFIC: -7.7% V +4.4% PRIOR - (BR) BRAZIL CENTRAL BANK (COPOM) RAISES SELIC TARGET BY 50BPS TO 8.50%, (AS EXPECTED) ***Markets Snapshot (as of 03:30 GMT)*** - Nikkei225 -0.2% - S&P/ASX +1.0% - Kospi +2.1% - Shanghai Composite +1.8% - Hang Seng +2.0% - Sept S&P500 +1.1% at 1,666 - Spot gold +2.8% at $1,283 - Aug crude oil -0.2% at $106.27/brl ***Observations/Insights*** - Q/A session from Fed chairman Bernanke stealing the spotlight in a session packed with central bank policy decisions and notable economic data from Japan and Australia. Speaking at NBER on a centennial anniversary of US central banking, Bernanke struck a particularly dovish tone, calling for highly accommodative monetary policy for the foreseeable future while also noting the current unemployment rate of 7.6% may overstate the health of labor market. Also of note, Bernanke said the Fed will not raise rates for some time even after we reach 6.5% unemployment threshold, given that inflation remains low. Commentary that followed a convoluted set of FOMC policy meeting minutes was a greenlight to the markets to sell USD against all other currencies, while also bidding up equities and commodities. USD/JPY fell nearly 200pips below 98.40, EUR/USD rose as high as $1.32 (up over 3 big figures), while AUD/USD post-Bernanke session high was around $0.93 (Up about 180pips). Gold was up over $35 above $1285, while copper rose over 2% above $3.17. - Brazil central bank raised SELIC target rate by 50bps for the 2nd consecutive meeting, attributing its decision to campaign against inflation. Brazil has now tightened for the past 3 months for a cumulative 125bps. - Bank of Korea was on hold at 2.50% as widely expeced. BOK warned inflation may accelerate because of low base effect, and that it would monitor the impact of recent rate cut and the govt's fiscal stimulus. - Australia employment data was surprisingly strong at +10K jobs created vs consensus calling for flat figure. Unemployment rate rose to a 3-year high, albeit Australia's labor force matched its highest level since June 2012. AUD/USD briefly rose against the greenback on the data. - BOJ policy statement contained a few surprises. As expected the central bank raised its assessment of the economy for the 7th consecutive month to include the word "recover" - first time in 2 1/2 years. More notably, BOJ lowered its projections for GDP and core CPI for the current and next fiscal years by a tenth of a pct pt. The adjustment suggests that despite the progress in other economic data, the BOJ is prepared to acknowledge its 2-year timeframe for achieving 2% inflation may be rather ambitious. Earlier Japan investors finally registered a net buy of foreign bonds in the week ended July 5th. USD/JPY saw a brief bid above 99.50 on the news, though this typically closely monitored flows report was overshadowed by the session's other developments, as JPY strengthened again after the BOJ statement ***Fixed Income/Commodities/Currencies*** - GLD: SPDR Gold Trust ETF daily holdings fall by 0.7 tons to 939.1 ton (lowest since 935.1 tons in Feb of 2009) - SLV: iShares Silver Trust ETF daily holdings rise to 10,125 tons from 10,034 tons (highest since May 21st) - ANZ: Forecasts year end gold prices at $1,300/oz - (CN) PBoC sets yuan mid point at 6.1599 v 6.1341 prior close (strongest Yuan setting since June 17th) ***Speakers/Political/In the Papers*** - (CN) PBoC will not inject or drain funds through open market operations in today's session - financial press - (CN) China Wenzhou govt may help companies to deal with bad loans - Chinese press - (CN) China to unveil Shanghai free-trade zone plans during the week - Chinese press - (CN) China may ease financing policies for developers in the future - Chinese press - (CN) China Vice Premier Wang: optimistic about both China and US economies, but we need to take a long term view - US-China discussions comments - (CN) China big four banks lending reaches CNY170B in the first week of July - financial press - (CN) China steelmakers may raise prices for August - Chinese press - (HK) Hong Kong Chief Exec Leung: concerned over commercial land shortage - (JP) According to a draft of Japan Cabinet Office's 2013 white paper on the economy and public finances, Japan is turning the corner on deflation - Nikkei News - (JP) Japan Vice Econ Min Nishimura: Japan's real economy is already picking up - (JP) According to Japan Defense Ministry, Japan scrambled fighter jets 69 times in response to Chinese aircraft approaching Japanese airspace between April and June - Nikkei News - (AU) Australia PM Rudd: Resources boom is over, must diversify the domestic economy - (NZ) According to BNZ, New Zealand's terms of trade with China may soon reach a surplus - NZ press - (KR) South Korea Foreign Minister Yun: South Korea not considering bilateral meeting with Japan at G20 - (TW) Taiwan insurers June bond funds sales at NT$93B - Taiwan press - (TW) Taiwan MoF remains cautious on tax revenue forecasts - Taiwanese press - (US) Fed Chairman Bernanke: Reiterates highly accommodative monetary policy will be needed for the foreseeable future; Current unemployment rate of 7.6% may overstate the health of labor market - Q&A - IDC: Forecasts PC shipment growth to improve in H2; Q2 shipments at 75.6M, -11.4% v -11.7%e ***Equities*** - YUM: Reports Q2 $0.56 v $0.55e, R$2.90B v $2.94Be; +0.9% afterhours - CVX: Interim Update for Q2; +0.7% afterhours - WAG: Increases dividend 14.5% to $0.315 from $0.275; +0.3% afterhours - Nissan 7201.JP: To open a new factory for commercial vehicles in India - Nikkei News - Asahi Glass 5201.JP: May report H1 op profit around 35B, -30% y/y; Rev seen rising 5% to 160B - Nikkei News - Disco 6146.JP: May report Q1 op profit rising 60% y/y to about 4.5B; Rev seen rising 12% to 27B - Nikkei News - Source


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