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TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: European markets less exuberant over Bernanke's QE 4ever stance

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: European markets less exuberant over Bernanke's QE 4ever stance
Thu, 11 Jul 2013 5:44 AM EST

***Notes/Observations***
- Fed's Bernanke implies QE 4ever: inflation and employment signal more stimulus needed. He reiterated that 6.5% unemployment rate was a threshold, not a trigger. First rate increase might be some time after. The current unemployment rate of 7.6% overstates health of labor market
- FOMC Minute painted a different picture: Several member judged tapering likely warranted soon with about half saw bond-buying ending late this year. However, many members thought further labor market improvement needed before tapering; some felt exit strategy discussions were premature

Europe:
- Luxemborg PM Juncker: Will submit resignation and call for early elections
- Portugal President Cavaco Silva: Rejected cabinet reshuffle proposed by CDS party leader Porta; Portugal must comply with the bailout program, any snap elections would require a new bailout package
- European auction results considered soggy; Italy sells upper end of BTP expected range but light bid-to-cover ratios

Far East:
-BoJ leaves interst rates and monetary base increase target unchanged as exp; upgrades econ assessment to mention recovery (1st time since Jan 2011)
- Bank of Korea (BOK) leaves 7-day Repo Rate unchanged at 2.50% (as expected)
- China equities surged on stimulus hopes after Premier Li Keqiang commented that economic growth and employment must stay above a certain floor
- China big four banks lending reaches CNY170B in the first week of July
-Australia Mix employment data: June Unemployment Rate comes in higher than expectations ( 5.7% vs 5.6%e)while Net Change in employment comes in better than expected (+10.1K vs. 0.0Ke)
-Australia July CPI expectations rise to 2.6% from 2.3% prior

Other notable:
- Brazil Central Bank hikes for 3rd time this year; raises Selic Target Rate by 50bps to 8.50%

***Economic Data***
- (ID) Indonesia Central Bank (BI) raised its Reference Rate by 50bps to 6.50%; more than expected

- (DE) Germany Jun Wholesale Price Index M/M: -0.4% v -0.4% prior; Y/Y: +0.7% v-0.1% prior
- (FR) France Jun CPI M/M: 0.2% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 0.9% v 0.9%e; CPI Ex Tobacco Index: 125.78 v 125.83e

- (FR) France Jun CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 0.2% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 1.0% v 1.0%e
- (HU) Hungary Jun Consumer Prices M/M: 0.2% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 1.9% v 1.8%e
- (ES) Spain May House transactions Y/Y: -3.7% v 10.8% prior
- (TR) Turkey May Current Account: -$7.5B v -$6.9Be
- (EU) ECB 278M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 635M prior; 84.85B parked in deposit facility vs. 110.0B prior - Daily Eurosystem Liquidity Conditions
- (SE) Sweden Jun CPI Headline M/M: -0.2% v -0.2%e; Y/Y: -0.1% v -0.2%e; CPI Level: 313.99 v 313.93e
- (SE) Sweden Jun CPI Underlying (CPIF) M/M: -0.9% v -0.1%e; Y/Y: 0.9% v 0.9%e
- (SE) Sweden Jun Average House Prices (SEK): 2.089M v 2.094M prior
- (GR) Greece Apr Unemployment Rate: 26.9% v 26.9%e; fresh record high
- (ZA) South Africa May Gold Production Y/Y: -14.6% v -3.1% prior; Mining Production Y/Y: -0.4% v -4.1%e

Fixed Income:
- (IT) Italy Debt Agency (Tesoro) sold total 5.36B vs. 4.0-5.5B in 2016 and 2044 BTP Bonds

- Sold 3.385B vs. 3.0-3.5B indicated range in 2.25% May 2016 BTP; Avg Yield 2.33% v 2.38% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.34x v 1.34x prior
- Sold 1.461B vs. 1-1.5B indicated in Sept 2044 BTPs; Avg Yield: 5.19%; Bid-to-cover: 1.30x (**Note was previously syndicated)
- (IT) Italy Debt Agency (Tesoro) sold 1.5B vs. 1-1.5B indicated in Nov 2018 CCTeu; Avg Yield: 2.68% v 2.61% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.70x v 1.46x prior
- (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) sold HUF47B in 2016, 2018 and 2023 Bonds
- (UK) DMO sold 2.5B in 3.25% 2044 Gilts; Avg Yield: 3.553% v 3.293% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.65x v 2.0x prior; Tail: 0.4bps vs. 0.2bps prior


*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***

***Equities***
FTSE 100 +0.70% at 6,548
, DAX +0.90% at 8,141, CAC-40 +0.60% at 3,861, IBEX-35 flat 7,993, FTSE MIB +0.50% at 15,750, SMI +0.40% at 8,001, S&P 500 Futures +0.90% at 1,664

- Equity markets in Europe are broadly higher, as traders assess comments by US Fed Chairman Bernanke and the FOMC's recent policy meeting minutes. Of note, European indices have underperformed most of the Asian markets on today' session, as China was supported by renewed speculation that Beijing could announce stimulus measures. Additionally, continued concerns related to Portugal have capped the upside for European markets. European banks are broadly higher, although underperformance has been seen for financials in Portugal and Spain. Gains in commodity prices have supported shares of resource-related companies.

- UK movers [Petropavlovsk +17% (addressed market rumors), Associated British Foods +7% (Q3 sales +8% y/y), Balfour Beatty +4.5% (reaffirmed outlook), Carpetright +4% (broker commentary), SuperGroup +3.5% (FY profits above ests) Hays +3% (LFL net fees rose y/y), Melrose +2% (broker commentary), Oil Mutual +1.5% (broker commentary)]
- Germany movers [Hugo Boss +1% (broker commentary); Praktiker -70% (bankruptcy concerns)]
- France movers [Veolia Environmental +1.5% (broker commentary), Ipsen +1.5% (data presentation); Renault -1% (broker commentary)]
- Italy movers [MedioBanca +1.5% (broker commentary)]

Speakers: -
- ECB's Weidmann (Germany) reiterates that low rates were justified by subdued inflation outlook but added that forward guidance won't stop rate hike if inflationary pressures appeared.
Comments on guidance was to bring clarity on rate path to markets. ECB forward guidance was not strategic shift. He reiterated the need to be aware of the side-effects of low rates. Stated under ESM must quickly return to self-reliance.
- BOE's Miles commented that MPC was acutely aware of rate rise impact on households and highly possible mortgage rate rise lagged bank rate rise
- BOJ Gov Kuroda post rate decision press conference noted that the BOJ had taken enough measures to achieve 2% inflation target but would make policy adjustments as necessary. Economy was starting to recover moderately and positive moves were spreading. Exports were picking up with the help from Fx rates Long term JGB yields were very stable and would continue effort to keep bond market stable. He cautioned that failure to address fiscal problems could lead to a rise in yields. Japan GDP, CPI to grow in line with Apr forecasts but the slight downgrade in CPI forecast due partly to downtrend in energy and commodity prices while the slight reduction in GDP forecast partly due to overseas economic conditions. A few members gave a more cautious view on Japanese price outlook
- ECB Monthly Report mirrored Draghi July 4th press conference. Forward guidance was consistent with but not directly linked to decision to extend the horizon for fixed rate tenders with full allotment until July 2014. Key interest rates can be reduced further if warranted by price stability outlook. Extended period of time over which key interest rates are expected to remain present or lower levels is flexible horizon which does not pre-specify end
- Hungary Central Bank's Gerhardt reiterated view of favoring gradual and cautious interest rate cuts
- Greece could lift short selling ban on bank shares ahead of July expiration date
- European Commission confirms they have conducted raids on several Internet providers in antitrust probe
- German VCI Chemical Group commented that it did not see Germany entering a recession in 2013 and reaffirm its 2013 forecast for Germany's chemical industry sales growth of 2%, production +1.5%, prices +0.5%
- International Energy Agency (IEA) Monthly Oil Market Report stated that geopolitical and other risks could pare US supply gains. It set 2014 global demand growth of 1.2M bpd

Currencies/Fixed Income:
- During Asia Risk appetite rose significantly overnight in reaction to dovish commentary from Fed Chairman Bernanke during his Boston speech. The USD tumbled while equity and commodities surged higher. Comments from China Premier Li Keqiang also provided some relief after he noted that economic growth and employment must stay above a certain floor. These comments raised expectations that China could react if growth was to fall further.
- The USD was off its worse levels ahead of the NY morning following the dovish tone from Fed Chairman Bernanke on Wed as European reaction was much less enthusiastic.
- The EUR/USD exhibited its second most volatile trading day of 2013. The pair surged to test over 1.32 during Asia but drifted back towards the mid 1.30 area. China was singled out as the main buyer yesterday around 1.28 area and seller earlier today above 1.32 .
- The USD/JPY pair tested 98.25 after Bernenke comments and retested the level after BOJ maintained its current policy.

Political/In the Papers:
- (PT) Portugal President Cavaco: Portugal must comply with the aid program, any snap elections would require a new bailout package; Rejects cabinet reshuffle proposed by CDS party leader Portas; Political deal must include a timetable for early elections that coincides with plans for exit from bailout.
- (PT) Portugal parties PSD and CDS have cautiously criticized Portugal Pres Cavaco refusal to call early elections and his rejection of the new cabinet - Jornal de Negocios
- (PT) Some believe that a delayed market return could raise the risk of debt restructuring in Portugal - FT
- (GR) Greece govt officials held an urgent meeting Wed night to quell fears over the new multibill that is needed to secure bailout tranche - ekathimerini
- (GR) Greece Fin Ministry: Troika maintained all forecasts in latest review
- (ES) S&P: Continues to monitor Spain's budget dynamics, tracking implementation of structural reforms
- (ES) Spain officials said to be unaware of any imminent sovereign rate decision - financial press
- (ES) EU Commission: Spain banking sector rescue program remains on track; No need to see further disbursement of funds
- (GR) According to draft report from troika Greece Q1 banks nonperforming loans (NPLs) account for 29% of all loans at 66.0B v 24.2% in Q4 - ekathimerini; 40% of the NPLs are covered under bank provisions.
- (CN) PBoC will not inject or drain funds through open market operations in today's session - financial press; Weekly operations are zeo vs CNY46B injected last week.
- (CN) China may ease financing policies for developers in the future - Chinese press

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (US) US Tsy Sec Lew and Sec of State Kerry meet with Chinese Officials
- (EU) European Commission Banking Structure Reform Comment Deadline
- 06:00 (IL) Israel Jun Trade Balance: No est v -$1.1B prior
- 06:00 (MA) Malaysia Central Bank Interest Rate Decisions: expected to leave the Overnight Rate unchanged at 3.00%
- 06:00 (PL) Portugal May Construction Works Index: No est v 47.7 prior
-06:00 (IE) Ireland Jun CPI M/M: No est v -0.1% prior; Y/Y: No est v 0.4% prior
- 06:00 (IE) Ireland Jun CPI Harmonized M/M: No est v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: No est v 0.5% prior
- 06:00 (IS) Iceland to sell Bills
- 06:30 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 06:30 (EU) EU President Van Rompuy in Malta
- 07:00 (RU) Russia Gold & Forex Reserve w/e July 5th: No est v $514.5B prior
- 07:00 (ZA) South Africa May Manufacturing Production M/M: 0.3%e v 8.4% prior; Y/Y: 2.9%e v 7.0% prior
- 07:15 (DE) German Chancellor Merkel in Berlin
- 08:00 (BR) Brazil May Retail Sales M/M: -0.4%e v +0.5% prior; Y/Y: 3.4%e v 1.6% prior; Broad Retail Sales Y/Y: 4.1%e v 9.1% prior
- 08:30 (US) Jun Import Price Index M/M: 0.0%e v -0.6% prior; Y/Y: +0.4%e v 1.9% prior
- 08:30 (US) Initial Jobless Claims: 340Ke v 343K prior; Continuing Claims: 2.955Me v 2.933M prior

- 08:30 (US) Weekly USDA Net Export Sales
- 08:30 (CA) Canada May New Housing Price Index M/M: 0.2%e v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: 1.9%e v 2.0% prior
- 10:30 (US) Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventories
- 11:00 (US) Fed's Tarullo in Senate on banking regulations
- 11:00 (US) Fed to purchase $1.0-1.55B in TIPS
- 12:00 (IS) Iceland Jun International Reserves (ISK): No est v 490B prior
- 12:00 (US) WASDE Report
- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell $13B in 30-Year Bonds Reopening

- 13:30 (BR) Brazil to sell 2014, 2015 and 2017 Bills
- 14:00 (US) Jun Monthly Budget Statement: $40.0Be v -$59.7B prior
- 18:00 (CL) Chile Central Bank Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave Nominal Overnight Rate Target unchanged at 5.00%
- 19:00 (PE) Peru Central Bank Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave Reference Rate unchanged at 4.25%

 

 

 

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Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
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13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
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15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias


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