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Thursday July 11, 2013 - 15:36:26 GMT
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| | Email US Market Update: Bernanke's Dovish Speech Sparks Global Rally US Market Update: Bernanke's Dovish Speech Sparks Global Rally
Thu, 11 Jul 2013 11:09 AM EST

***Economic Data***
- (IL) Israel Jun Trade Balance: -$1.2B v -$1.1B prior
- (MA) Malaysia Central leaves Overnight Rate unchanged at 3.00%, as expected for its 13th pause
- (PL) Portugal May Construction Works Index: 50.0 v 48.1 prior
- (IE) Ireland Jun CPI M/M: +0.1% v -0.1%e; Y/Y: 0.7% v 0.6%e
- (IE) Ireland Jun CPI Harmonized M/M: +0.1% v -0.1%e; Y/Y: 0.7% v 0.6%e
- (IE) Ireland Jun Consumer Confidence: No est v 61.2 prior
- (RU) Russia Gold & Forex Reserve w/e July 5th: $505.0B v $514.5B prior
- (ZA) South Africa May Manufacturing Production M/M: -1.7% v +0.3%e; Y/Y: 2.2% 2.9%e
- (BR) Brazil May Retail Sales M/M: 0.0% v -0.4%e; Y/Y: 4.5% v 3.5%e; Broad Retail Sales Y/Y: 4.4% v 4.2%e
- (US) Jun Import Price Index M/M: -0.2% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: 0.2% v 0.4%e
- (US) Initial Jobless Claims: 360KK v 340Ke; Continuing Claims: 2.977M v 2.955Me
- (CA) Canada May New Housing Price Index M/M: 0.1% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 1.8% v 1.9%e
- (US) Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventories: +82 bcf v +80-85 bcf expected range

- Fed Chairman Bernanke's very dovish speech seems to have finally convinced some market participants that the fed funds rate will really stay low for a very long time even after QE is done with. Asian and European equity markets have made excellent progress and the DJIA and S&P500 are flirting with record highs. As of writing, the DJIA is up 0.89%, the S&P500 is up 0.9% and the Nasdaq is up 1.14%.

- The greenback has recovered slightly from the dramatic pummeling it received yesterday afternoon and evening in the wake of the Fed minutes and Chairman Bernanke's speech. EUR/USD surged five big figures to top out around 1.3200, but is back to around 1.3055 in mid-morning trade.

- Analysts are reading the tealeaves in the minutes and Bernanke's speech. Goldman's Jan Hatzius focused on Bernanke's comment that a reduction in the 6.5% threshold for the unemployment rate is "something that might happen." Mainly Hatzius says this would help convince the market that there has been no change in the committee's view of the outlook for the funds rate.

- The weekly jobless claimed bumped higher in the data out this morning, although analysts highlight the fact that seasonality is the main factor for this time of year, calling the upswing normal. The June import price index fell yet again. Prices for both imports and exports have fallen every month since March, the longest such streak since 2008.

- Microsoft unveiled its much-anticipated corporate restructuring plans this morning. CEO Balmer said the effort would refocus the company on devices and software services, and hopefully streamline the entire firm in an effort to speed the process of bringing new products to market. Analysts are not terribly impressed as many units would see financial reporting amalgamated into larger entities - possibly hiding massive sustained losses at various groups, most notably the online unit. MSFT is up 1.5%.

- In its Q2 interim update, Chevron said upstream production in the quarter was more or less flat on a sequential basis. Its downstream refinery input volumes increased by 220,000 bpd, largely to the completion of maintenance at various plants.

- Shares of Yum Brands are more or less flat after the firm's profits fell on a y/y basis. EPS met expectations. The big slide in the China business after the chicken supply scandal is healing slowly, with China comps down 10% in the month of June versus the 19% slide in May.

- Homebuilders are greatly benefitting from Bernanke's very dovish tone on rates yesterday. KB Home, and Lennar are both up nearly 8%, while Toll is up 6.7%. In addition, RealtyTrac's June foreclosure survey showed foreclosure rates down 35% on a y/y basis, at their lowest levels since late 2006.

***Looking Ahead***
- 12:00 (IS) Iceland Jun International Reserves (ISK): No est v 490B prior
- 12:00 (US) World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates (WASDE) Report
- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell $13B in 30-Year Bonds Reopening
- 13:30 (BR) Brazil to sell 2014, 2015 and 2017 Bills
- 14:00 (US) Jun Monthly Budget Statement: $40.0Be v -$59.7B prior
- 18:00 (CL) Chile Central Bank Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave Nominal Overnight Rate Target unchanged at 5.00%
- 19:00 (PE) Peru Central Bank Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave Reference Rate unchanged at 4.25%




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