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Friday July 12, 2013 - 11:03:44 GMT
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| | Email EU Market Update: Portugal ruling and opposition members vow commitment to reaching cross-party agreement to fulfill the country's needs EU Market Update: Portugal ruling and opposition members vow commitment to reaching cross-party agreement to fulfill the country's needs
Fri, 12 Jul 2013 5:31 AM EST

- China might terminate lending rate floor and formed a plan for interest rate linearization
- China Fin Min Lou Jiwei: Our expected China GDP growth rate this year is 7.0%; of course, it won't be a big problem for us if we achieve growth of 7.0% or 6.5% - comments following annual strategic and economic dialogue between China and the US in Washington DC
- US Treasury Sec Lew press conference following 5th Strategic and Economic Dialogue
Noted that US, China have deepened ties over the past few years; Reiterated calls for more progress on China currency issues
- ECB Chief Economist Praet: Proposes that the ECB introduce minutes for policy meetings; topic being intensively discussed
- Portugal Fin Ministry: 8th Troika evaluation delayed until late August because of political uncertainty
- Portugal ruling and opposition members vow commitment to reaching cross-party agreement to fulfill the country's needs

***Economic Data***
- (RU) Russia Central Bank (CBR) Interest Rate Decision; Expected to leave Key Rates unchanged; as expected
- (RU) Russia Narrow Money Supply W/E July 8th (RUB): No est v 7.76T prior
- (JP) Japan May Final Industrial Production M/M: 1.9% v 2.0% prelim; Y/Y: -1.1% v -1.0% prelim; Capacity Utilization M/M: 2.3 v 1.6% prelim
- (UK) Retailer John Lewis reports weekly LFL sales for week ending July 6th (y/y): % v +6.7% prior
- (HU) Hungary May Final Industrial Production M/M: -1.3% v -1.3% prelim; Y/Y: -2.1% v -2.1% prelim
- (ES) Spain Jun Consumer Price Index M/M: 0.1% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 2.1% v 2.1%e
- (ES) Spain Jun CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 0.1% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 2.2% v 2.2%e
- (ES) Spain Jun CPI Core M/M: 0.0% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 2.0% v 2.0%e
- (EU) ECB 182M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 278M prior; 86.4B parked in deposit facility vs. 84.9B prior - Daily Eurosystem Liquidity Conditions
- (CZ) Czech May Current Account Monthly (CZK): +1.9B v -9.3Be
- (IT) Italy Jun Final CPI M/M: 0.3% v 0.3% prelim; Y/Y: 1.2%e v 1.2% prelim
- (IT) Italy Jun Final CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 0.3% v0.3 % prelim; Y/Y: 1.4% v 1.4%e
- (CN)) China Jun Foreign Reserves: $3.50T v $3.470Te
- (CN)) China Jun New Yuan Loans (CNY) 860.5B v 800.0Be
- (CN) China Jun M2 Money Supply Y/Y: 14.0% v 15.2%e; M1 Money Supply Y/Y: 9.1% v 10.7%e; M0 Money Supply Y/Y: 9.9% v 10.5%e

- (CN) Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) Weekly Copper Stockpiles: 168.4K v 173.0K prior
- (UK) May Construction Output Y/Y: -3.4% v -2.8%e
- (EU) Euro Zone May Industrial Production M/M: -0.3% v -0.3%e; Y/Y: -1.3% v -1.3%e

- (IN) India Jun Trade Balance: -$12.2B v -$20.1B prior; Imports Y/Y: +0.7% v 7.0% prior; Exports Y/Y: -4.6% v -1.1% prior

Fixed Income:
(IN) India sold INR150B vs. INR150Be in 2020, 2026, 2032 and 2035 bonds


Indices: FTSE 100 +0.30% at 6,564,
DAX +0.80% at 8,224, CAC-40 +0.10% at 3,873, IBEX-35 -1.1% at 7,939, FTSE MIB -0.3% at 15,634, SMI +0.50% at 8,024, S&P 500 Futures -0.10% at 1,668

- Equity markets in Europe are trading mixed, amid concerns about the political situation in Portugal and China's growth outlook. Also, Spain's IBEX-35 has underperformed, amid losses in shares of Iberdrola and BBVA. European banks are mostly higher, although shares of Spanish financials, Commerzbank, UniCredit and Natixis have lagged. Outperformers in the sector include RBS and Lloyds. Looking ahead, large US banks (JPMorgan and Wells Fargo) are due to report their quarterly results during the US morning. Declines in commodity prices have weighed on resource related companies.

- UK movers [Invensys +15% (takeover offer), Oxford Instruments (noted improving trading conditions), Phoenix Group +5% (confirmed talks with Swiss Re); Experian -2% (reaffirmed sales forecast), Serco -1% (UK to review certain contracts)]
- Germany movers [Gagfah +2.5% (broker commentary), SAP +1.5% (supported by Infosys' Q1 results), Bayer +1.5% (broker commentary), RWE +1% (speculation related to Dea business)]
- France movers [Valeo +2.5% (broker commentary), Cap Gemini +1.9% (supported by Infosys' Q1 results), Alcatel-Lucent +1% (broker commentary), Renault +1% (Q2 unit sales +0.7%); Schneider Electric -3.5% (made offer for Invensys)]
- Spain movers [PRISA -6% (bankruptcy concerns), Iberdrola -2.5% (Spain expected to cut power distribution payments)]
- Italy movers [Telecom Italia -2.5% (Italy to cut rates for fixed line access)]
- Switzerland movers [EMS-Chemie +3% (H1 profits rose y/y)]

- Portugal PM Coelho stated in parliament that the country had gone through difficult path in last 3 years and the crisis was forcing all political parties to seek unity and realism
. He added that the current govt was backed by a majority and was committed to reaching cross-party agreement to fulfill the country's needs. Govt had fulfilled internal and external targets; need political and financial stability
- Portugal Opposition Leader stated that he was prepared to contribute solutions and opened to talks with all parties
- S&P affirmed Germany's sovereign rating at AAA; Stable Outlook
- S&P raised Ireland sovereign outlook to positive from stable; affirms BBB+ rating
- Spain affirmed Spanish regions of Basque Country and Navarre at BBB+ with negative outlook
- BOJ Monthly Report raised its economic assessment that its domestic economy was starting to recover moderately (as expected and in line with comments from Thurs rate decision. This was the 7th straight month of BOJ raising its assessment and longest streak on record
- Indonesia Central Bank (BI) deputy gov Warjiyo noted that the two recent rate hikes totaling 75bps were enough to address 1st and 2nd round fuel effects
- China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) stated that it would expand the QFII quota to $150B in 2013 and allow Singapore and London investors to use yuan to invest in China

Currencies/Fixed Income:
- The EUR/USD traded defensively in the session largely due to concerns over the periphery. Portugal requested a delay of the next Troika review due to political instability. The USD tried to regain its footing after being sidetracked by Bernanke's dovish commentary on QE exit earlier in the week. Various Portuguese govt officials calling for unity after the division imposed by its austerity measures. Portugal 10-year yield inching back towards the 7% area after testing 6.5% earlier this week

Political/In the Papers:
- (EU) ECB Constancio: accommodative stance needed for longer period; Europe faces long period of slow growth; Europe is behind the US in economic recovery and inflation risks, which implies that monetary policy has to stay accommodative for a longer period of time.
- (GR) Greece central bank updates ECB funding for June; Funding to Greece banks at 61.1B v 65.4B m/m; emergency funding at 20.9B v 19.9B m/m
- (PT) Portugal Fin Ministry: Troika evaluation delayed until late August because of political uncertainty; 8th and 9th reviews to be carried out at the end of Aug and in early Sept.
- (PT) FT comments on concerns related to the proposal by Portugal's President Silva aimed at unifying the government; Notes the cross-party agreement proposed by Silva could delay talks with the troika and delay the approval of the 2014 budget; Notes Portugal asked the troika to conduct its next two quarterly reviews simultaneously in Sept in order to ensure that the bailout program is completed on schedule.
-(UK) UK Govt may start to sell its Lloyds stake in Sept - FT
-(CN) China Fin Min Lou Jiwei: US Federal Reserve should consider emerging markets when exiting from QE; should help protect against the risks that come from an easy monetary policy; 1H China growth expected to be below 7.7%, but not too far from that level [*Note: a 7/7 China press report suggested China Q2 GDP may weaken to 7.5% from the 7.7% in Q1. China's official 2013 GDP target is 7.5%].
- (CN) China PBOC's Yi: Money market tensions have been relieved; Financial system has recovered to normal levels; has buffer against risks from the US Fed QE taper.
- (CN) China may terminate lending rate floor - Chinese press

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (RU) Russia May Trade Balance: $16.2Be v $14.2B prior; Exports: $43.4Be v $44.0B prior; Imports: $27.3Be v $29.8B prior
- (CO) Colombia Monetary Policy Minutes
- (US) Fed's Plosser and Bullard speak in Jackson Hole, Wyoming
- 06:00 (IE) Ireland May Trade Balance (First Estimate): No est v 3.4B prior
- 06:00 (EU) ECB Announces 3-Year LTRO Repayment
- 06:10 (UK) DMO to sell combined 2.0B in 1-month, 3-month and 6-month Bills
- 06:30 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:30 (BR) Brazil May Economic Activity Index M/M: -1.2%e v +0.8% prior; Y/Y: 2.8%e v 7.3% prior
- 07:30 (IN) India Forex Reserves w/e July 5th: No est v $284.6B prior
- 08:00 (DE) German Chancellor Merkel to Host Slovenia's Bratusek for Talks in Berlin
- 08:00 (IN) India May Industrial Production Y/Y: 1.4%e v 2.3% prior (revised from 2.20%)
- 08:00 (IN) India Jun CPI Y/Y: 9.3%e v 9.3% prior
- 08:00 (PL) Poland May Current Account: -157Me v 468M prior; Trade Balance: 62Me v 601M prior; Exports: 12.8Be v 13.3B prior; Imports: 12.7Be v 12.7B prior
- 08:00 (IS) Iceland Jun Unemployment Rate: No est v 4.3% prior
- 08:00 (PL) Poland Jun M3 Money Supply M/M: 0.2%e v 0.7% prior
- 08:00 (ES) Spain Debt Agency (Tesoro) announce Bill in upcoming auctions
- 08:00 (ES) Spain Debt Agency (Tesoro) announce bonds in upcoming auctions
- 08:30 (US) Jun Producer Price Index M/M: 0.5%e v 0.5% prior; Y/Y: 2.1%e v 1.7% prior
- 08:30 (US) Jun PPI Ex Food & Energy M/M: 0.1%e v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: 1.6%e v 1.7% prior

- 09:00 (MX) Mexico May Industrial Production M/M: +0.9% v -1.7% prior; Y/Y: 0.6%e v 3.3% prior; Manufacturing Production Y/Y: No est v 5.6% prior
- 09:00 (CA) Canada Jun Teranet/National Bank HPI M/M: No est v 1.1% prior; Y/Y: No est v 2.0% prior; House Price Index: No est v 155.39 prior
- 09:15 (DE) German Chancellor Merkel with Slovenia PM Bratusek
- 09:55 (US) July Preliminary University of Michigan Confidence: 84.7e v 84.1 prior
- 10:00 (MX) Mexico Central Bank (Banxico) Interest Rate Decision: expected to leave Overnight Rate unchanged at 4.00%

- 11:00 (US) Fed to purchase $1.25-1.75B in Bonds
- 15:00 (AR) Argentina Jun Consumer Price Index M/M: 0.7%e v 0.7% prior; Y/Y: 10.3%e v 10.3% prior
- 15:00 (AR) Argentina Jun Wholesale Price Index M/M: No est v 1.2% prior; Y/Y: No est v 13.1% prior
- 17:15 (US) Fed's Williams presents a Monetary Policy Paper in Vancouver



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