Monday July 15, 2013 - 03:38:41 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
Morning Briefing : 15-Jul-2013 -0335 GMT
Equities are doing alright overall. Stocks maintained gains on Friday. The Dow (15464.30, +0.02%) was up marginally. It can target 15800 while above 15300.
The Asia-Pac indices are all in the green apart from Indonesia and Malaysia, which are down -0.58% and -0.19% respectively. Japan is closed today. Importantly, the Shanghai (2055) is up a good 0.74%. The danger of a fall to 1800 may have reduced. A rise past 2100 will be needed to confirm.
The Nifty (6009.00) rose well on Friday, bouyed by Infosys results. We hope to see further rise past 6100.
Commodities doing better. But could see Resistances overhead.
Gold (Spot 1292) faces crucial Resistance near 1300 after having seen a short-covering rally over the last couple of weeks. There are chances it could start the next leg of its overall decline from there. Watch carefully.
Silver (Spot 20.07) has some Resistance near current levels. If it breaks we can see some more upside towards 21 before fresh selling starts. The bigger picture is bearish.
Brent Crude (108.86) remains bullish, in contrast, targeting 110. Copper (3.1645) has done well to come up above 3.10 and can move up to 3.20-25. This should be a huge relief for industrial metals as a whole.
The Euro (1.3070) consolidated sideways on Friday. It has chances of rising towards 1.33 if it manages to remain above 1.3000. It must make a bold move soon if it wants to retain initiative. The Pound (1.5122) saw a corrective dip on Friday. A rise past 1.5250 is necessary if it wants to avoid a fresh fall to 1.5000 and below.
Dollar-Yen (99.26) is consolidating a but after last week's break below 100.80. The outlook is mxed/ bearish with some chances of seeing 98 on the downside. The Aussie (0.9095) has fallen sharply from 0.9300 and remains vulnerable overall for a test of 0.8875.
Dollar-Rupee (59.56) could dip a bit, but has Support at 59.30-00. The Offshore market quotes Rupee near 59.89.
The US 10-Yr (2.58%) continues to look toppish. Important economic data this week are Retail Sales (today), Industrial Production (tomorrow) and Housing Starts (Wednesday).
5:30 GMT or 11:00 IST IN WPI
...Previous 4.70 %
12:30 GMT or 18:00 IST US Retail Sales
...Previous 0.67 %
...Actual -1.60 % ...Previous 1.90 %
EU IND Prodn (YoY)
...Actual -1.28 % ...Previous -0.40 %
US PPI ex Food & Energy (MoM)
...Actual 0.16 % ...Previous 0.05 %
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