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Monday July 15, 2013 - 10:12:20 GMT
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| | Email EU Market Update: Quiet start to week after following some relief from China's Q2 GDP reading EU Market Update: Quiet start to week after following some relief from China's Q2 GDP reading
Mon, 15 Jul 2013 5:50 AM EST

- (PT) Portugal's top 3 parties said to have set July 21st deadline to agree on "national salvation pact" in order to preserve the 78B international rescue
- (CN) China Q2 Real GDP Q/Q: 1.7% vs. 1.8%e; Y/Y: 7.5% vs. 7.5%e;
- (CN) China Jun Industrial Production Y/Y: 8.9% vs. 9.1%e; YTD: 9.3% vs. 9.3%e
- (CN) China Jun Retail Sales Y/Y 13.3% vs. 12.9%e
- (CN) China National Bureau of Statistics (NBS): China H1 main economic data within rational range; economic growth was stable; Conditions were in place to achieve 2013 GDP target 7.5%
- (CN) China PBOC Gov Zhou reiterated stance on prudent monetary policy and would fine-tune policy at appropriate time
- Dealers ponder whether Germany might be next to encounter a sovereign downgrade and lose its AAA rating
- Fed Chairman Bernanke Congressional testimony looming mid-week likely to keep risk appetite intact.

***Economic Data***
- (SG) Singapore May Retail Sales M/M: +2.1% v -1.0%e; Y/Y: 3.2% v 1.5%e; Retail Sales Ex Auto Y/Y: 3.1% v 0.3% prior
- (FI) Finland Jun CPI M/M: -0.1 v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: 1.4% v 1.6% prior
- (FI) Finland May Final Retail Sales Volume Y/Y: 1.9 v 2.7% prelim
- (IN) India Jun Monthly Wholesale Prices (WPI) Y/Y: 4.9% v 4.9%e
- (CH) SNB Sight Deposits for Week Ended July 12th (CHF): 323.8B v 321.0B prior
- (CZ) Czech May Export Price Index Y/Y: 0.6% v 2.4% prior; Import Price Index Y/Y: -1.1% v +0.8% prior
- (CZ) Czech Jun PPI (Industrial) M/M: +0.1% v -0.1%e; Y/Y: 0.7% v 0.6%e
- (DK) Denmark Jun Wholesale Prices M/M: 0.0% v -0.1% prior; Y/Y: +0.6% v -0.1% prior
- (FI) Finland May Current Account: +0.3B v -1.4B prior
- (TR) Turkey Apr Unemployment Rate: 9.3% v 9.2%e
- (EU) ECB 135M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 182M prior; 94.6B parked in deposit facility vs. 86.4B prior - Daily Eurosystem Liquidity Conditions
- (CH) Swiss Jun Producer & Import Prices M/M: 0.1% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 0.2% v 0.2%e
- (NL) Netherlands May Trade Balance: 4.6B v 3.5B prior
- (NL) Netherlands May Retail Sales Y/Y: -0.6% v -0.3% prior
- (NO) Norway Jun Trade Balance (SEK): 32.0B v 30.1B prior
-(PH) Philippines May Overseas Workers Remittances: $1.9B v $1.8B prior, +5.3% y/y

Fixed Income:
(NL) Netherlands Debt Agency (DSTA) sold total 3.1B vs. 3.0-5.0B indicated range in 3-month and 6-month bills

- Sold 2.04B vs. 2.0-3.0B indicated in 3-month bills; Yield:-0.01% v -0.02% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.43x v 1.89x prior
- Sold 1.06B vs. 1.0-2.0B indicated in 6-month Bills; Yield +0.01% v +0.030% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.6x v 2.78x prior


Indices: FTSE 100 +0.70% at 6,588,
DAX +0.50% at 8,255, CAC-40 +0.70% at 3,883, FTSE MIB +0.70% at 15,532, SMI +0.40% at 8,011, S&P 500 Futures +0.20% at 1,673

- Equity markets in Europe are braodly higher, as China's Q2 GDP met analysts expectations. Gains have been seen for most European banks, although shares of Santander and Portuguese banks have underperformed. Resource related firms are mostly higher, supported by China's GDP data. Looking ahead, US June retail sales and July Empire Manufacturing data is due for release today. Also, Citigroup is due to report its quarterly earnings during the US morning.

- UK movers [New World Resources -7% (concerns related to Paskov mine), Sthree -4% (H1 profits declined y/y)]
- Germany movers [Praktiker +55% (bid speculation), Commerzbank +2% (speculation that Germany could sell stake), Rheinmetall +1% (order from Qatar), Fresenius +1% (broker commentary), Siemens +1% (speculation that Q3 profits may exceed analyst ests); IVG -5% (funding concerns), Kloeckner -1% (cautious CFO commentary)]
- France movers [Carrefour +2% (broker commentary), Cap Gemini +2% (broker commentary); Air France -1% (broker commentary)]
- Switzerland movers [Kuehne Nagel +3% (H1 profits above ests)]

- ECB's Hansson (Estonia) reiterated that conditionality on forward guidance was important and hinged on expectations.
ECB mandate complicated given more definitive forward guidance. He reiterates that negative rates and LTROs remained a part of the Central bank's toolkit He reiterates that ECB had room to go lower on all Key rates; reiterates the 0.50% in not the lower boundary for Main Refi Rate. Still unclear if the current improvement in the economy was a turning point or is temporary
- Germany's Finance Minister Schaeuble expected to this week announce plans to establish an investment fund for SMEs
- Spain Fin Min de Guindos commented that the country was starting to see light at end of tunnel and could not afford to slow the pace of structural reforms. PM Rajoy's only concern is the public interest
- Spain opposition party PSOE reiterated its call for PM Rajoy's resignation after the release of further evidence of Rajoy's connection with former PP Treasurer Barcenas. Newly released text messages reveled Rajoy was keeping in touch with Barcenas as late as March 6, 2013 and offering his support even after Baracenas was accused of holding millions in Swiss bank accounts
- Turkey Central Bank Gov Basci commented that a measured step to widen interest rate corridor to be on agenda at next monetary policy meeting on July 23rd. Global uncertainties and volatilities had increased but will not allow these developments to impact price and financial stability. To double credit line to exporters to support exports and increase net reserves in the central bank
- Turkey Fin Min Simsek: Turkey economy is recovering in 2013. Have room to maneuver on budget and would meet budget targets comfortably. No tax changes on agenda at this time' not considering lowering consumption taxes and unaware of any planned increases to natural gas prices
- Hungary Central Bank Gov Matolcsy suggested that IMF close its Budapest office
- Russia might raise oil export duties 2.9% yo $379.80/ton on Aug 1st

Currencies/Fixed Income:
- The USD began the week slightly firmer despite risk sentiment finding some relief from China's Q2 GDP reading which came in at 7.5% y/y and in line with expectations). The greenback seemed to benefit from a lot of Eurozone uncertainty but well contained within the 1.28-1.32 range exhibited late last week.
. Portugal political uncertainty remained in the spotlight as all three main parties agreed to talk and set a July-21 deadline for the 'national salvation pact' to keep it's 78B bailout on track. Some dealers pondering whether Germany is at risk of a sovereign downgrade from its AAA rating
The EUR/USD was at 1.3030 as the NY morning approached
- The USD/JPY pair edged back towards parity
- Looking ahead FX dealers were noting it was hard to be too bullish the greenback with Fed Chairman Bernanke Congressional testimony looming mid-week.

Political/In the Papers:
- (FR) Fitch cut France's Sovereign Rating from AAA to AA+ (one notch); Outlook Stable. Fitch raised France's peak debt forecast to 96% from 94%; Economic output and forecasts are substantially weaker than when Fitch revised the Outlook to Negative.
- France President Hollande affirmed expectation to reverse the rise in unemployment by the end of the year - financial press
- (GR) Greece Fin Min Stournaras: Reiterates reaching a primary surplus by the end of the year is the main economic target; not worried about a fiscal gap in this year or next - ekathimerini
- (IT) S&P Takes Various Rating Actions On Italian Banks (following sovereign downgrade on July 9th)
- (ES) Spain opposition leader Rubalcaba: To sever all ties with PM Rajoy because of a "secret payment" scandal - financial press: Says: "Given the unsustainable political situation in Spain, the Socialist Party calls for the immediate resignation of Mariano Rajoy as head of the government."
- (ES) Spain Fin Min de Guindos: EU bailout of Spain's banking sector helped avoid a full state rescue; Does not expect to request more funds - El Pais
- (ES) Spain Constitutional court upholds decision to suspend autonomous region Catalan's declaration of regional sovereignty - El Pais
- (ES) Spain banks said to be requesting conversion of 15B to 30B of deferred tax assets to tax credits - financial press
- (US) Fed's Williams (dove, FOMC non-voter): Current Fed policy is appropriate; Not concerned with "too-low" inflation; Employment data is encouraging and have been for some time.
- (US) Fed's Bullard (dovish FOMC dissenter): Would be concerned if inflation stagnates at 1% level for approx 6 months; Lower inflation would require a Fed response
- (US) Fed's Plosser (hawkish, non-voter): There are large risks attached to exit from QE policy; costs are outweighing risks; declines to comment if he would support tapering as soon as the July 31 FOMC meeting.

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (PE) Peru Jun Unemployment Rate: No est v 5.7% prior
- (PE) Peru May Economic Activity Index Y/Y: No est v 7.7% prior
- 06:00 (IL) Israel to sell Bonds
- 06:00 (RO) Romania to sell Bills
- 06:00 (TR) Turkey to sell 2018 and 2023 bonds
- 06:15 (EU) OECD chief Gurria in Madrid
- 06:30 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:30 (BR) Brazil Central Bank Weekly Economists Survey
- 07:30 (TR) Turkey Central Bank expectation Survey
- 08:00 (US) Fed's Tarullo on banking regulation in Wash DC
- 08:00 (PL) Poland Jun CPI M/M: +0.1%e v -0.1% prior; Y/Y: 0.3%e v 0.5% prior
- 08:00 (ES) Spain Debt Agency (Tesoro) announces size of upcoming Bill and bond auctions
- 08:30 (US) July Empire Manufacturing: 5.00e v 7.84 prior
- 08:30 (US) Jun Advance Retail Sales: 0.8%e v 0.6% prior; Retail Sales Less Autos: 0.5%e v 0.3% prior; Retail Sales Ex Auto & Gas: 0.4%e v 0.3% prior

- 08:45 (ES) Spain PM Rajoy with Poland PM Tusk
- 08:50 (FR) France Debt Agency (AFT) to sell combined 8.0B in 3-month, 6-month, and 12-month bills
- 09:00 (PL) Poland Jun YTD Budget Level (PLN): No est v -309.4B prior; Budget Performance: No est v 87.0% prior
- 09:00 (BE) Belgium May Trade Balance: No est v 83.1M prior
- 09:00 (CA) Canada Jun Existing Home Sales M/M: No est v 3.6% prior
- 09:30 (EU) ECB calls for bids in 7-Day Main Refinancing Tender
- 09:30 (EU) ECB announces prior settlements in SMP program to offset bond purchases
- 10:00 (US) May Business Inventories: 0.0%e v 0.3% prior
- 11:00 (DE) ECB's Asmussen (Germany)

- 11:00 (US) Fed to purchase $0.75-1.00B in Bonds
- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell combined $55B in 3-Month and 6-Month Bills
- 11:30 (IL) Israel Jun CPI M/M: 0.7%e v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: 1.9%e v 0.9% prior
- 21:30 (AU) RBA Policy July Meeting




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