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Tuesday July 16, 2013 - 10:10:50 GMT
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| | Email EU Market Update: German ZEW Survey mixed; IMF's Lagarde warns of new risks to global outlook related to unconventional monetary policies EU Market Update: German ZEW Survey mixed; IMF's Lagarde warns of new risks to global outlook related to unconventional monetary policies
Tue, 16 Jul 2013 5:49 AM EST

- India Central Bank (RBI) recalibrated its Marginal Standing Facility (MSF) with 200bps hike to 10.25%, effective immediately to address fx volatility
-Fitch downgraded EFSF to AA+ from AAA (1 notch) move follow recent France sovereign downgrade
- US Treasury's Brainard: There is a risk for protracted stagnation in Europe; the US is meeting its goals on deficits
-RBA Minutes: appropriate to keep rates unch after recent rate cuts & falling AUD; inflation outlook could provide some scope for easing; CPI outlook consistent with tgt despite lower AUD
- Asia Development Bank (ADB) cuts China 2013 and 2014 GDP growth forecasts to 7.7% and 7.5% respectively (from 8.2% and 8.0%)Also cuts Developing Asia and India growth outlook
- UK Jun CPI a touch softer than expected with YoY staying below 3%
- German July ZEW Survey mixed as economic sentiment disappoints (36.3 vs. 40.0e)
- Spain bill auction results seen as steady, mixed bid-to-cover ratios at slightly higher borrowing costs
- IMF's Lagarde: New risks to global outlook on the horizon related to unconventional monetary policies

***Economic Data***
- (EU) EU27 Jun New Car Registrations: -5.6% v -5.9% prior; 17-year low
- (EU) ECB 76M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 135M prior; 83.4B parked in deposit facility vs. 94.6B prior - Daily Eurosystem Liquidity Conditions
- (IT) Italy May Total Trade Balance: 3.9B v 2.5Me; Trade Balance EU: 890M v 559M prior
- (NO) Norway Q2 Existing Homes Q/Q: 2.6% v 2.9% prior
- (AT) Austria Jun CPI M/M: 0.0 v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: 2.2 v 2.3% prior
- (UK) Jun PPI Input M/M: +0.2% v -0.2%e; Y/Y: 4.2% v 4.2%e
- (UK) Jun PPI Output M/M: 0.1% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: 2.0% v 1.9%e
- (UK) Jun PPI Output Core M/M: 0.0% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 1.0% v 1.1%e
- (UK) Jun CPI M/M: -0.2% v -0.1%e; Y/Y: 2.9% v 3.0%e; Core CPI Y/Y: 2.3% v 2.3%e
- (UK) Jun RPI M/M: -0.1% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: 3.3% v 3.4%e; RPI (Ex Mortgage Interest Payments (RPIX) Y/Y: 3.3% v 3.4%e; Retail Price Index: 249.7 v 250.0e

- (UK) May ONS House Price Y/Y: 2.9% v 2.8%e
- (IT) Bank of Italy Releases May Public Finance Supplement: General Government Debt: 2.075T v 2.0413T prior
- (EU) Euro Zone Jun CPI M/M: 0.1% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 1.6% v 1.6%e; CPI Core Y/Y: 1.2% v 1.2%e
- (EU) Euro Zone May Trade Balance Seasonally Adj: 14.6B v 16.2Be; Euro-Zone Trade Balance Unadj: 15.2B v 12.0Be
- (DE) Germany July ZEW Economic Sentiment:36.3 v 40.0e; Current Situation: 10.6 v 9.0e

- (EU) Euro Zone July ZEW Economic Sentiment: 32.8 v 30.6 prior

Fixed Income:
- (ES) Spain Debt Agency (Tesoro) sold total 4.05B vs. 3.0-4.0B indicated range in 6-Month and 12-Month Bills

- Sold 1.63B in 6-month Bills; Avg Yield: 0.958% v 0.821% prior; Bid-to-cover: 3.51x v 3.82x prior; Max Yield: 0.968% v 0.850%; Tail: 1.0bps v 2.9bps prior
- Sold 2.42B in 12-month Bills; Avg Yield: 1.503% v 1.395% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.61x v 2.1x prior; Max Yield 1.520% v 1.423% prior; Tail: 1.7bps v 2.8bps prior
- (ZA) South Africa sold total ZAR2.35B vs. ZAR2.35B indicated in 2023, 2037 and 2041 Bonds
- (EU) ECB allotted 104.4B in 7-day Main Refi Tender at fixed 0.50% vs. 102.0Be
- (CH) Switzerland sold CHF538.2M in 3-Month Bills; Avg Yield: -0.083% v -0.123% prior
- (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) sold HUF50B vs. HUF50B indicated in 3-Month Bills; Avg Yield: 4.11% v 4.16% prior; Bid-to-cover: x v 1.99x prior
- (BE) Belgium Debt Agency sold 2.33B vs. 2.0-2.5B indicated in 3-month and 12-month Bills
- Sold 1.01B vs. 800M indicated in 3-month Bills; Avg Yield: +0.023% v +0.027% prior; Bid-to-cover: 3.08x 3.45x prior
- Sold 1.335B vs. 1.6B indicated in 12-month Bills; Avg yield 0.152% v 0.142% prior; Bid-to-cover:2.10x v 2.07x prior
- (GR) Greece Debt Agency (PDMA) sold 1.625B vs. 1.25B in 13-week bills; Avg Yield: 4.02% v 4.02% prior; Bid-to-cover:1.70 x v 1.72x prior


Indices: FTSE 100 +0.20% at 6,597
, DAX -0.30% at 8,207, CAC-40 -0.30% at 3,865, IBEX-35 -0.60% at 7,807, FTSE MIB +0.40% at 15,662, SMI -0.40% at 7,971, S&P 500 Futures flat at 1,678

- Equity markets in Europe are broadly lower, led by declines in Spain's IBEX-35, amid weaker than expected German ZEW data. Mixed trading has been seen for the banking sector. Outperformers include Commerzbank, Barclays and RBS, while underperformers include Portuguese banks and Santander. Resource related firms are mostly higher, supported by gains in shares of Rio Tinto. Looking ahead, various US companies are due to report their quarterly earnings including, Coca-Cola, Goldman Sachs and Johnson & Johnson. Also, FOMC official Esther George (hawk) is due to speak later today. Fed Chairman Bernanke is due to give his Congressional testimony on Wednesday and Thursday.

- UK movers [Ricardo +5% (positive outlook), Kingfisher +2% (broker commentary), Rio Tinto +2% (Q2 iron ore output above ests), Michael Page +2% (reaffirmed outlook), Dixons Retail +1% (broker commentary); Computacenter -2% (H1 sales declined y/y)]
- Germany movers [Aurubis +3.5% (broker commentary), ThyssenKrupp +3% (renewed speculation related to Steel Americas assets), Lufthansa +1% (broker commentary); Loewe -9% (applied for creditor protection)]
- Switzerland movers [Holcim -1.5% (broker commentary)]
- Italy movers [Telecom Italia -3% (concerns related to network spinoff plan)]

- Bank of Spain (BOS) chief Economist Molina
commented that ECB needed countries to ensure budget stability. He noted that ECB could not control inflation without public finance stability and could only assume risks that derive from monetary policy. ECB had done preparation in case negative rates are needed. He cautioned that negative rates have some side effects and they were not a success in Denmark
- IMF's Lagarde commented that new risks to global outlook were on the horizon related to unconventional monetary policies but the IMF was working on plan to strengthen then systems to alleviate fears.
- Sweden Central Bank (Riksbank) Minutes noted that the Board was unanimous that monetary policy needed to continue to be expansionary, given the low rate of inflation. A majority of four members thus assessed that it was appropriate to hold the repo rate at 1 per cent until the second half of 2014, to support the economy and contribute to inflation rising towards the target. Two members considered that there was scope to cut the repo rate to 0.75 per cent and to let it remain at this level until the second quarter of 2014. After that the two members advocated slightly different rates of increase. The future development of the repo rate was also discussed at the meeting. There were different opinions regarding the probability of increases or cuts in the near term, even within the majority
- German ZEW Economists maintain optimistic outlook on German economy and saw robustness in German economy despite weak industrial production and trade data. Sentiment fell slightly due to more negative news from Eurozone but also due to factors concerning China and global growth outlook. Confidence in recover not as strong as some expected. Signals coming from the FED were mixed but tapering discussions had started and mainly impact financial markets. ECB expectation to keep interest rates low had an impact on financial markets but not much effect on real economy
- Senior Chinese Lawmaker He Keng stated that China should cut GDP target to 7.0% from 7.5% official target and abandon obsession with money-losing infrastructure projects and focus on addressing a brewing debt crisis
- South Korea Fin Min Hyun commented that too much focus on fx rates might lead to currency war . he warned that US must reduce negative spillover effect of QE exit. Fed must decide carefully on when and how to taper QE and reduce uncertainty through clear communication with markets. Emerging countries troubles might affect US economy through trade and financial channels
- India Fin Min Chidambaram commented that latest RBI measures were intended to ease excessive speculation and volatility in fx. Cannot fully ban gold imports but appealing to moderate gold demand to people.

Currencies/Fixed Income:
- The FX markets remained in a consolidation mode with participants focusing on Wednesday's Fed Chairman Bernanke testimony to Congress
- The USD/JPY pair unable to find momentum to sustain moves above the 100 handle. Dealers noting that Japanese exporters have been spotted above the area for the time being.
- The GBP was softer after Jun CPI came in a touch below expectations with the YoY reading staying below 3%. The GBP/USD fell about 50pips to test below 1.505 area
- AUD moved higher in Asia after RBA minutes were not as dovish as anticipated and dealers noting that the central bank was unlikely to cuts rates in the near term .
- Sweden Central Bank (Riksbank) Minutes: Board increasingly worried over mounting household debt; turning focus away from strong SEK currency

Political/In the Papers:
- (EU) ECB's Asmussen: Outlook for the EMU hides some signs of growth, in PMI and consumer confidence data
- (EU) ECB's Coeure (France): Diverse collateral rules help increase the resilience of markets, repo market plays a key role
- (GR) Greece PM Samaras calls on Greek banks to lower interest rates and increase liquidity in order to do their part to help the economy recover - ekathimerini
- (GR) Greece unions prepare for 24-hr strike Tuesday over the multi-bill austerity measures; transport and services will be affected; sit-ins at town halls and municipal offices are also planned
- (ES) IMF releases report on Spain banks, warns that Spain bank risks are worsening the situation
- (ES) Spain PM Rajoy: Will not allow political scandal to affect reform plans; Political stability is Spain's greatest asset, will continue to fulfill mandate and serve out the full term as PM.
- (ES) Former Spain PP party treasurer Barcenas officially admits to authoring secret double ledgers that tracked illegal payments to top party officials including PM Rajoy - El Pais

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)
- 06:00 (TR) Turkey to sell 2015 and 2023 bonds
- 06:00 (IL) Israel Q1 Final GDP Annualized: No est v 2.7% prelim
- 06:30 (UK) BOE's Miles with DMO chief Stheeman
- 06:30 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:00 ECB allotment in 7-day Term Deposit Tender to offset Govt Bond Purchases under SMP; to drain 195.5B
- 07:00 (BR) Brazil July FGV Inflation IGP-10 M/M: 0.6%e v 0.6% prior
- 07:30 (ES) Spain Econ Min de Guindos
- 07:45 (US) Weekly ICSC Chain Store Sales
- 08:00 (PL) Poland Jun Avg Gross Wages M/M: +3.4%e v -3.4% prior; Y/Y: 2.1%e v 2.3% prior
- 08:00 (PL) Poland Jun Employment M/M: 0.0%e v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: -0.9%e v -0.9% prior
- 08:00 (PL) Poland Jun Core Inflation M/M: 0.0%e v -0.1% prior; Y/Y: 0.9%e v 1.0% prior
- 08:00 (PT) Bank of Portugal Summer Economic Bulletin
- 08:30 (CA) Canada May Manufacturing Sales M/M: +0.8%e v -2.4% prior
- 08:30 (US) Jun CPI M/M: 0.3%e v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: 1.6%e v 1.4% prior
- 08:30 (US) Jun CPI Ex Food & Energy M/M: 0.2%e v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: 1.6%e v 1.7% prior

- 08:30 (US) Jun CPI NSA: 233.431e v 232.945 prior; CPI Core Index: 233.597e v 233.267 prior
- 08:55 (US) Weekly Redbook Retail Sales
- 09:00 (US) May Total Net TIC Flows: No est v $12.7B prior; Net Long-term TIC Flows: -$25.0Be v -$37.3B prior
- 09:00 (EU) Weekly ECB Forex Reserves
- 09:00 (IN) India Chief Economic Advisor
- 09:15 (US) Jun Industrial Production: 0.3%e v 0.0% prior; Capacity Utilization: 77.7%e v 77.6% prior; Manufacturing Production: 0.3%e v 0.1% prior
- 10:00 (MX) Mexico Weekly International Reserves
- 10:00 (US) July NAHB Housing Market Index: 51.0e v 52.0 prior
- 11:00 (US) Fed to purchase $1.00-1.75B in Bonds
- 11:00 (UR) Ukraine to sell Bills and Bonds
- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell $35B in 4-Week Bills
- 13:30 (BR) Brazil to sell I/L 2018, 2022, 2030, 2040 and 2050 bonds
- 14:15 (US) Fed's George speaks on Economic Conditions and Agriculture
- 16:30 (US) Weekly API U.S. Crude Oil Inventories




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