Tuesday July 16, 2013 - 20:45:50 GMT
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Westpac Institutional Bank - www.westpac.co.nz
Forex - Westpac Morning Report
Morning Report Wednesday 17 July 2013
Global market sentiment: Asset class performance was mixed, equities and the US dollar lower but US interest rates unchanged. US equities reversed the previous two dayís gain, the S&P500 currently down 0.5%, while the Eurostoxx 50 closed down 0.7%. A disappointing earnings report from Coca-Cola plus Fed hawk George calling for an end to QE were headwinds. Curiously, the US data which surprised to the upside (headline CPI, home builder sentiment) had little positive effect.
Interest rates: US 10yr treasury bond yields fell from 2.56% to 2.51% in London and then consolidated around 2.53% in NY. The catalyst for the rally? Take your pick from a decline in German interest rates (weaker economic confidence survey) and a Dow Jones report opining Bernanke will sound dovish at the testimony to Congress tonight.
After rising from 2.65% to 2.78% following the RBA minutes yesterday, Australian 3yr government bonds yields ranged between 2.71% and 2.78%. The 10yr ranged between 3.72% and 3.77%.
Currencies: The US dollar index fell throughout the London and NY sessions. EUR rose from 1.3080 to 1.3166, slipping only briefly on the German ZEW report. USD/JPY fell from 99.94 to 99.10. AUD extended its post-RBA minutes rally from 0.9170 to 0.9251. NZD followed, from 0.7840 to 0.7900. Dairy prices rose 4.9% at the GDT auction. AUD/NZD eked a narrow sideways range of 1.1700-1.1740.
US consumer prices rose 0.5% in Jun, boosted by a 6.3% jump in gasoline prices,the fastest clothing price rise in nearly two years, higher medical care and auto (0.3%) and food (0.2%) prices. Ex food and energy, the core rate rose 0.2%. The headline annual CPI accelerated from 1.4% yr to 1.8% yr but the core annual rate slowed a tick to 1.6% yr.
US industrial production rose 0.3% in June, the fastest rise since February, boosted in part by a 1.3% jump in auto production. The NAHB housing market index rose by 6 pts to 57.0 in in Oct.
Euroland exports fell 2.3% in May after falling 1.0% in April, adding weight to the view that the Eurozone economy mostly likely contracted for a seventh straight quarter in Q2 2013. Also the June CPI was confirmed at 1.6% yr, unrevised from the flash estimate while the core rate was unrevised at 1.3% yr. Meanwhile, German ZEW analyst expectations fell from 38.5 to 36.3 in July, the first fall in three months.
UK CPI accelerated from 2.7% to 2.9% yr in June, with higher fuel and clothing prices the main drivers, although food, recreation and airfares provided some offset. Meanwhile the PPI rose 1.0% yr (core output measure), indicative of subdued prices pressures at the factory gate. Also house price inflation picked up from 2.6% to 2.9% yr in May according to the ONS measure.
Event risk today: The local calendars are devoid of market-movers today. Probably the highlight of the week will be tonightís Bernanke testimony to Congress, which will likely include much questioning about the Fedís tapering intentions.
NZD/USD 1 day: This 2-day upward correction should retest 0.7900 today.
NZD/USD 1-3 month: The downtrend since April remains intact and could run as far as the low 0.70ís. However, we need to see 0.7680 break for confirmation. Fed tapering expectations will remain a depressant and NZís economic data momentum is likely to slow during the next few months.
AUD/USD 1 day: This 2-day upward correction targets 0.9300 today.
AUD/USD 1-3 month: The downtrend since April remains intact and could ultimately run as far as the 0.80ís The Australian data flow is unsupportive, and the RBA is likely to ease further to 2.0% by Q1 2014.
AUD/NZD 1 day: A break above 1.1740 would signal this 2-day upward correction has legs.
AUD/NZD 1-3 month: The downtrend since March remain strong and targets 1.1500 next, possibly as far as 1.1100. Relative fundamentals (e.g. RBA easing to 2.0% vs RBNZ stuck at 2.5%) favour the NZD medium term.
NZ swap yields 1 day: Taking the lead from US and Australian bond yields overnight (see above) the 2yr should open up 2bp at 3.23%. The 10yr should open down 2bp at 4.55%.
NZ swap yields 1-3 month: The uptrend since June 2012 remains intact. By late-2013 we would expect to see the 2yr above 3.40% based on NZís improving fundamentals and eventual RBNZ tightening in 2014. The US-influenced 10yr yield has also confirmed its uptrend and targets 4.68% next.
Westpac Banking Corporation ABN 33 007 457 141 incorporated in Australia (NZ division). Information current as at 17 July 2013. All customers please note that this information has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Because of this you should, before acting on this information, consider its appropriateness, having regard to your objectives, financial situation or needs. Australian customers can obtain Westpacís
financial services guide by calling +612 9284 8372, visiting www.westpac.com.au or visiting any Westpac Branch. The information may contain material provided directly by third parties, and while such material is published with permission, Westpac accepts no responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of any such material. Except where contrary to law, Westpac intends by this notice to exclude liability for the information. The information is subject to change without
notice and Westpac is under no obligation to update the information or correct any inaccuracy which may become apparent at a later date. Westpac Banking Corporation is registered in England as a branch (branch number BR000106) and is authorised and regulated by The Financial Services Authority. Westpac Europe Limited is a company registered in England (number 05660023) and is authorised and regulated by The Financial Services Authority. © 2010 Westpac Banking Corporation. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The forecasts given in this document are predictive in character. Whilst every effort has been taken to ensure that the assumptions on which the forecasts are based are reasonable, the forecasts may be affected by incorrect assumptions or by known or unknown risks and uncertainties. The ultimate outcomes may differ substantially from these forecasts.
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