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TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: BOE minutes sees unanimous vote to maintain QE at current level (first time since Oct)

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: BOE minutes sees unanimous vote to maintain QE at current level (first time since Oct)
Wed, 17 Jul 2013 5:43 AM EST

***Notes/Observations***
- S&P downgraded various Italian regions after Sovereign downgrade last week
- BOJ Minutes: Japan economy to return moderate recovery path
- China Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) Spokesperson Shen: Yuan currency appreciation has weakened China's cost advantage; Current trade situation is "severe"; To release measures to support trade companies soon.
- China Fin Min Lou Jiwei: China won't have major fiscal stimulus this year
- Bank of England (BOE) Monetary Policy Committee Minutes turns much less dovish under Carney
- UK Jun Jobless Claims registers its 8th straight decline and again exceeds analyst expectations (-21.k vs. -8.0Ke)
- Markets await Fed chief Bernanke semi annual testimony to Congress; expected to keep dovish undertones


***Economic Data***
- (JP) Japan Jun Final Machine Tool Orders Y/Y: -12.4% v -12.4% prelim
- (ES) Spain May Industrial Orders NSA Y/Y: -1.3%; Industrial Orders WDA Y/Y: -1.0%
- (EU) ECB 93M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 76M prior; 84.9B parked in deposit facility vs. 83.4B prior - Daily Eurosystem Liquidity Conditions
- (UK) BOE Minutes: Voted 9 to 0 (unanimous) to hold both interest rates and Asset Purchase Target unchanged at 0.50% and 375B respectively
- (UK) Jun Jobless Claims Change: -21.2K v -8.0Ke; Claimant Count Rate: 4.4% v 4.5%e

- (UK) May Average Weekly Earnings 3M/Y: 1.7% v 1.4%e; Weekly Earnings ex-Bonus 3M/Y: 1.0% v 1.1%e
- (UK) May ILO Unemployment Rate 3M/3M: 7.8% v 7.8%e; Employment Change 3M/3M: +16K v +81Ke
- (CH) Swiss July Credit Suisse ZEW Expectations Survey: 4.8 v 2.2 prior
- (EU) Euro Zone May Construction Output M/M: -0.3% v 1.0% prior; Y/Y: -5.1% v -6.8% prior
- (IT) Italy May Current Account: 852M v 854M prior
- Spain May Preliminary public debt to GDP ratio at 89.6% vs. 87.4% prior month

Fixed Income:
- (IN) India RBI: did not accept bids at its 3-month and 6-month Bill auction

- (EU) ECB allotted $0.0M in 7-Day USD Liquidity Tender at fixed 0.60% vs. $0.0M prior
- (EU) ECB allotted $27M in 3-month USD Liquidity Tender at 0.61% vs. $159M prior
- (DE) Germany sold 3.19B in 1.5% 2023 Bund; Avg Yield: 1.57% v 1.55% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.6x v 1.5x prior
- (PT) Portugal Debt Agency (IGCP) sold total 1.5B vs. 1.5B indicated in 6-month and 12-month bills
- Sold 1.2B in 6-month Bills; Avg Yield 1.045% v 1.041% prior; Bid-to-cover: 4.4x v 2.5x prior
- Sold 300M in 12-month Bills; Avg Yield 1.72% v 1.232% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.8x v 2.2x prior
- (RU) Russia sold RUB10.8B vs. RUB33.6B indicated in Dec 2019 OFZ Bonds; Yield: 6.77% vs. guidance of 6.73-6.78%

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***

***Equities***
Indices: FTSE 100 -0.40% at 6,523,
DAX -0.60% at 8,152, CAC-40 -0.70% at 3,823, IBEX-35 -1.1% at 7,709, FTSE MIB -070% at 15,422, SMI -0.70% at 7,864, S&P 500 Futures -0.30% at 1,666

- Equity markets in European are broadly lower, following the higher open, as markets await the comments from Fed Chairman Bernanke's Congressional testimony. European banks are broadly lower, ahead of US bank earnings (including Bank of America). Notable European companies which have reported earnings on today's session include Novartis, Nordea Bank and ASML. Core government bond yields have risen, as the BoE voted unanimously to hold its QE program steady at the July meeting. In China, officials continue to play down the need for any large scale stimulus measures.

- UK movers [Hochschild Mining +7% (reaffirmed production forecast), Fresnillo +1.5% (reaffirmed silver production forecast), BHP +1.5% (Q4 iron ore production above ests), Thomas Cook +1.5% (broker commentary); Smiths Group -3% (profit warning)]
- Germany movers [Dialog Semi -1.5% (tracks declines in Apple suppliers)]
- France movers [L'Oreal -3% (Q2 LFL sales below ests)]
- Switzerland movers [SGS -2% (margins flat y/y, cautious outlook), Novartis -0.50% (mixed Q2 results)]
- The Netherlands movers [ASML +1% (Q2 results above ests, raised outlook)]

Speakers:
- Bank of England (BOE) Monetary Policy Committee Minutes showed a surprise unanimous vote to maintain Asset Purchase Target unchanged at 375B at Gov Carney first meeting.
The prior votes were 6 to 3 under former Gov King. Some MPC member noted that a mixed strategy was best for adding stimulus while other noted benefit of extra QE was small. MPC members to discuss alternatives to QE in coming month. Aug inflation report to decide stimulus need and would provide forward guidance study next month to clarify stimulus. Any announcement of implementation of thresholds and forward guidance would be made with Aug 7 inflation report and not Aug 1 MPC decision. The minutes reiterated rise in UK bond yields was unwelcome tightening that could hurt growth, July statement should help counter this.
- Russia Fin Min Siluanov commented that the upcoming G20 meeting to discuss QE policies of Reserve Currency issuers. Russia to urge greater predictability and those policies should be clear
- Russia Dep Fin Min Storchak: Russia will not press G20 to demand tapering of stimulus in US, Japan and other advanced economies even amid resulting excessive market volatility
- European Commission: Spain tax aid for shipping partly breaks aid rules; Orders Spain to recover state aid from companies that benefited from the scheme
- Moody's commented that Poland budget plans would cause a deterioration of its fiscal position (Reminder: On July 16th Poland PM Tusk announced anti-cyclical steps this year to spread out revenue shortfall of PLN24B)
- Japan Dep Econ Min Nishimura commented that Japanese real economy was picking up steadily as Abenomics implementation was quicker than ever. He expected BoJ to steadily implement easing and reiterated that a certain Fx level was not a target of Japan's policy but a result of said policy
- India Fin Min Chidambaram commented that current fiscal year indirect tax collection was an achievable target at INR5.63T in FY14
- Asian Development Bank (ADB) Chief Nakao commented that the recent cut in China GDP outlook was due to monetary tightening and slowing exports. He expected high growth in Asia in 2014 even if China slowed down

Currencies/Fixed Income:
- Risk seem to have a bit of undertone. China's suggestion that it would come up with measures to support both exports and imports was one factor but the main focus will be on the Fed Chairman semi-annual testimony to Congress.
- FX price action was largely muted ahead of today's testimony from Fed Chairman Bernanke. The USD had maintained a softer tone in the days leading up to the Chairman's testimony after his dovish tones last week during his Boston speech
- GBP/USD surged following the release of the BOE minutes and better employment data out of the UK. The surprise unanimous vote in keeping the Asset Purchase Target at 375B took the market by surprise. The GBP/USD pair went from below the 1.51 handle to test the middle area of 1.52. The pair retraced after MPC members noted that it would discuss alternatives to QE in coming month

Political/In the Papers:
- Canada finance ministry official: G20 ministers to address the sources of recent market volatility at meetings this week, but not clear if it will be in the communiqu
- (GR) Greece may face funding gap of as much as 10B - German press; Cites unnamed European Commission official
- (GR) Greece to vote on more than 100 articles contained in the multi-bill of reforms Wednesday evening; Will be the first major test of the New Democracy-PASOK coalition - Greek press
- (IT) Italy Senate committee reportedly to discuss potential Berlusconi conflicts in a meeting on July 24; Said to consider a no confidence vote for Angelino Alfano, secretary of Berlusconi's (PDL) party, and Deputy PM.
- (IT) Italy Bankers Assoc (ABI) reports May net non-performing loans 135.7B, +31.5% y/y
- (PT) Bank of Portugal Summer Economic Bulletin: Raised 2013 GDP expectations to -2.0% from -2.3% prior spring forecast while cutting 2014 GDP forecast to +0.3% from +1.1% prior spring forecast; citing spending cuts
- (ES) Opposition Socialists party has threatened to call a formal motion of censure against PM Rajoy's government - FT; Although Rajoy has enough votes to defeat any censure, the move could force the PM to hold debates related to the corruption issue.
- (ES) Fitch places several utilities with Spain exposure on Watch Negative after changes in Spain regulatory measures
- (US) Fed's George (hawkish, FOMC dissenter): Reiterates time has come to end bond purchases and should be finished by end of 1H 2014; QE tapering should start soon and should end by the 1H of 2014, would like to see systematic taper that allows that to happen; Fed policy thresholds should be triggers to boost interest rates as unemployment level hits 6.5%; Welcomes the recent move in interest rates toward a more normal environment.
- (US) WSJ's Hilsenrath: Fed plans to wind down QE asset purchases depend on solving various economic puzzles, Fed could rethink its current timetable if the economy doesn't deliver
- (JP) Japan LDP is poised to win around 70 seats in upper house elections on Sunday, July 21st - Nikkei News; This margin of victory would put the ruling coalition far ahead of the 122 seats needed for a majority. This margin of victory would put the ruling coalition far ahead of the 122 seats needed for a majority

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)
- IMF chief Lagarde in Lituania
- (IT) Italy PM Letta with UK PM Cameron
- (IT) Bank of Italy Quarterly Economic Bulletin
- 06:00 (PT) Portugal Jun Producer Prices M/M: No est v -0.2% prior; Y/Y: No est v 0.8% prior
- 06:30 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:00 (UK) Prime Minister's question time in House of Commons
- 07:00 (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e July 12th: No est v -4.0% prior
- 07:00 (ZA) South Africa May Retail Sales M/M: +0.2%e v -0.6% prior; Y/Y: 2.4%e v 1.9% prior
- 08:00 (PL) Poland Jun Sold Industrial Output M/M: +1.0%e v -0.7% prior; Y/Y: +1.5%e v -1.8% prior
- 08:00 (PL) Poland Jun Producer Prices M/M: 0.2%e v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: -1.8%e v -2.5% prior
- 08:30 (US) Text release of Fed's Bernanke delivers Semi-Annual Policy Report to House
- 08:30 (US) Jun Housing Starts: 960Ke v 914K prior; Building Permits: 1.0Me v 985K prior (revised from 974K)

- 08:30 (CA) Canada May Int'l Securities Transactions: No est v C$14.9B prior
- 10:00 (US) Fed's Bernanke delivers Semi-Annual Policy Report to House
- 10:00 (CA) Bank of Canada (BOC) Interest Rate decision: Expected to leave Interest Rates unchanged at 1.00%
- 10:30 (US) Weekly DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories
- 11:00 (US) Fed to purchase $2.75-3.50B in Bonds
- 11:15 (CA) Bank of Canada (BOC) Gov Poloz post rate decision press conference
- 11:30 (BR) Brazil Central Bank Posts Weekly Currency Flow' Data
- 12:00 (US) Fed's Stein gives opening remarks at conference
- 12:30 (US) Fed's Raskin at Exchequer Club in Wash DC
- 14:00 (US) Fed's Beige Book
- 17:00 (CO) Colombia May Trade Balance: No est v $36.8M prior; Imports: No est v $5.2B prior

 

 

 

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Mon 20 Nov
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13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
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