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Thursday July 18, 2013 - 10:09:42 GMT
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| | Email EU Market Update: UK Jun Retail Sales YoY readings beat analyst expectations coupled with higher back-month revisions EU Market Update: UK Jun Retail Sales YoY readings beat analyst expectations coupled with higher back-month revisions Thu, 18 Jul 2013 5:34 AM EST ***Notes/Observations*** - Fed Chairman Bernanke reiterated that policy to remain highly accommodative for foreseeable future - Fed Beige Book: Growth modest to moderate across US; Consumer spending gained in most districts - Greece parliament passes Public Sector Reforms Bill to secure further bailout aid (Includes 15k public sector layoffs) - ECB's Asmussen: reiterates talk of a possible additional debt haircut for Greece is not useful - Portugal political parties resume talks; Social Democratic Party say coalition talks are "demanding" - UK Jun Retail Sales YoY readings beat analyst expectations coupled with higher back-month revisions - Spain 3-tranche bond auction has decent results as borrowing costs decline; sells just above the top end of indicated range ***Economic Data*** - (JP) Japan Jun Nationwide Dept Store Sales: 7.2% v 2.6% prior; Tokyo Dept Store Sales: 9.4% v 5.1% prior - (CH) Swiss Jun Trade Balance (CHF): 2.2Be; Real Exports M/M: 2.3% v 0.4% prior; Real Imports M/M: -3.2% v 2.6% prior - (EU) ECB 0.0M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 93M prior; 83.9B parked in deposit facility vs. 84.9B prior - Daily Eurosystem Liquidity Conditions - (NL) Netherlands July Consumer Confidence Index: -38 v -36 prior - (NL) Netherlands Jun Unemployment Rate: 8.5% v 8.3% prior - (EU Euro Zone May Current Account Unadj: 19.6B v 23.8B prior; Current Account Net Seasonally Adj: 9.5B v 16.6B prior - (UK) Jun Retail Sales Ex Auto Fuel M/M: 0.2% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 2.1% v 1.6%e - (UK) Jun Retail Sales w/Auto Fuel M/M: 0.2% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 2.2% v 1.7%e - (HK) Hong Kong Jun Unemployment Rate: 3.3% v 3.4%e - (IL) Israel July Inflation Forecast: 1.7 v 2.0% prior - (IL) Israel Jun Money Supply: 12.3 v 10.9% prior Fixed Income: - (ES) Spain Debt Agency (Tesoro) sold total 3.06B vs.2.0-3.0B indicated range in 2016, 2018 and 2023 bonds - Sold 1.12B in 3.3% April 2016 Bono; Avg Yield 2.768% v 2.875% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.57x v 3.46x prior; Max Yield 2.794% v 2.897% prior ; Tail: 2.6bps v 2.2bps prior - Sold 926M in 3.75% 2018 Bono; Avg yield 3.735% v 3.792% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.1x v 1.71x prior; Maximum Yield 3.768% v 3.859% prior; Tail: 3.3bps v 6.7bps prior - Sold 1.02B in 4.40% 2023 bond; Avg Yield: 4.723% v 4.765% prior syndicate; Bid-to-cover: 2.26x v 1.84x prior; Max Yield: 4.758% v 4.818% prior; Tail: 3.5bps v 5.3bps - (FR) France Debt Agency (AFT) sold total 7.99B vs. 7.0-8.0B indicated range in 2015, 2017 and 2018 Bonds - Sold 2.094B in 0.25% Nov 2015 Oats; Avg Yield 0.31% v 0.50% prior; Bid-to-cover: 3.24x v 1.93x prior - Sold 1.774B in 3.75% Apr 2017 Oats; Avg Yield 0.66% v 0.49% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.89x v 3.64x prior - Sold 4.12B in 1.0% 2018 Oat; Avg Yield 1.09% v 1.24% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.39x v 1.43x prior - (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) sold HUF75B vs. HUF50B indicated 12-Month Bills; Avg Yield: 4.08% v 4.28% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.29x v 1.64x prior - (IE) Ireland Debt Agency (NTMA) sold 500M vs. 500M indicated in 3-month Bills; Avg Yield: 0.200% v 0.200% prior; Bid-to-cover: 3.6x v 2.9x prior *** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM *** ***Equities*** Indices: FTSE 100 +0.30% at 6,593, DAX -0.10% at 8,248, CAC-40 +0.30% at 3,882, IBEX-35 +0.70% at 7,865, FTSE MIB +0.60% at 15,789, SMI +0.20% at 7,944 - Equity markets in Europe are mostly higher, led by Spain's IBEX-35, as traders await the second day of testimony from US Fed Chief Bernanke. European earnings have been one of the focuses for today's session. Firms which have gained after reporting include Hermes, Actellion, Publicis and Carrefour, while SAP and Akzo Nobel are lower following the release of their respective earnings reports. European banks are mostly higher, supported by gains in French financials (on broker commentary). Resource related firms are trading mixed, in line with what has been seen with commodity prices. US companies which are due to report earnings later today include Morgan Stanley, BlackRock, Philip Morris, UnitedHealth and Verizon. - UK movers [Optos +12% (reaffirmed outlook), LSE +4% ( Q1 sales above ests), Sports Direct +4% (FY margins rose y/y); Mothercare -6% (Q1 sales below ests)] - France movers [Publicis +3% (H1 results above ests, upbeat outlook), Hermes +2% (Q2 sales above ests), Carrefour +1.5% (Q2 sales above ests); Remy Cointreau -0.5% (Q1 organic sales, cognac sales below ests)] - Germany movers [SAP -2% (Q2 results below ests, cautious outlook)] - Italy movers [Pirelli +3.5% (broker commentary)] - The Netherlands movers [Imtech -9.5% (extended rights offering, cautious Q2 update), Akzo Nobel -6% (Q2 profits below ests), Ziggo -3% (Q2 sales below ests)] - Norway movers [Renewable Energy (REC) +20% (Q2 results above ests, breakup plan)] Speakers: - ECB said to have eased collateral rules on Asset Backed Securities (ABS) and raised some requirements for covered bonds. (**Note: Rumors circulating of an ECB press conference to discuss the collateral rules later today) - ECB's Asmussen (Germany) reiterated that the current crisis was not being caused by euro but manufactured by business practice. Needed to build sustainable growth to exit EMU crisis. Confidence in Euro Area banking system remained a problem. Banking Union was a key priority and the EU proposal for SRM was a step in the right direction. SRM must make timely and independent decisions. Spain lending was hurt by its banking sector balance sheets and not by monetary policy. After being asked if the ECB was considering new non-traditional measures, he stated that the central bank had done quite a lot and reiterated that monetary policy expansion would continue as long as needed. He also reiterated that ECB was not substituting for fiscal policy - France confirmed it cut itss Livrit A savings rate to 1.25% from 1.75% - IMF's Lagarde reiterated view of new growth risks to growth from emerging States. Overburdened non-standard monetary policy had to fill the gap. Central banks must unwind policies as and when necessary and timing needs to be determined by them. Some countries were doing enough on fiscal policies, but a few were doing too much austerity. Monetary policy could not be a substitute for reforms but added that ECB had room to ease if necessary. Lastly she noted that the once fear break-up of EMU would not happen and she was personally upbeat on Europe - Italy Dep Fin Min Fassina commented that PM Letta should not eliminate property tax (IMU) but that the tax should be eliminated for low-income households. There would not be enough resources to further postpone VAT increase and finance unemployment benefits. Govt needed to do more to increase consumption - Portugal President Silva saw positive signs in political party discussions between ruling and opposition members - China State Researcher Ren Zeping commented that the country's property market faced a bubble in first-tier cities. Difficult to improve China trade situation in short term - China Finance Ministry (MOF) urged local government to speed up budget spending and required unused fiscal funds at the end of 2013 to be lower y/y - North Korea said to have blamed that failed talks about the Kaesong industrial base on South Korean govt - Japan public pension fund GPIF President Mitani commented that it could not ignore Europe for investment but risks did remain. He believed that Japanese equities had already priced in LDP election win this coming weekend in upper house. He also believed 2% inflation target was difficult to achieve. In Japan's best interest to go through with a planned sales-tax hike next year, but the government might be forced to pass a stimulus package to buoy the economy. Fed tapering would favor a weakening of JPY currency Currencies/Fixed Income: - The EUR/USD was little changed in the session but remained above the 1.31 level. The pair failed to break above the 1.32 level on Wed following Bernanke's testimony and Q&A - The GBP/usd rebounded from session lows of 1.5150 after UK Jun Retail Sales YoY readings beat analyst expectations coupled with higher back-month revisions. - USD/JPY lmoved back above the 100.00 level ahead of this weekend's Upper House elections. The LDP is widely expected to secure a heavy majority and deliver more anticipated reforms - RBA rate cut expectations rose overnight after a weak NAB business survey Political/In the Papers: - (EU) ECB's Asmussen: No need to change Troika structure in mid-crisis - press - (EU) Germany foreign minister Westerwelle calling for new fund to promote reforms in euro zone nations - German press - (GR) Greece parliament passes Public Sector Reforms Bill to secure further bailout aid - financial press - (GR) German Fin Min Schaeuble: Reiterates no further Greek debt cut planned, as further haircut would roil markets. - (GR) Greece creates a working group to draft the new Single Property Tax that will apply from 2014 - Greek press - (IT) There are concerns that Italy's governing coalition could be weakened if Deputy PM Alfano is removed from office - FT - (UK) IMF indicates that some directors feel the UK's monetary policy needs to remain accommodative and the UK needs to maintain its fiscal consolidation path - (CN) China govt may issue measures to strengthen trade in late July - Chinese press - (CN) China Academy of Social Sciences (CASS) researcher Zhang: China may postpone property tax trial program nationwide - Chinese press - (JP) Japan Dep Econ Min Nishimura: Japan may need 2 years until it can raise consumption tax. **Looking Ahead*** All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent) - (EU) G20 Deputy Finance Ministers and Central Bankers - (EU) G20 Labor Ministers meet - (GR) German Fin Min Schaeuble in Athens - (ZA) EU-South Africa Summit - (PT) Portugal May Current Account: No est v 200.0M prior - (IL) Israel Jun Leading 'S' Indicator: No est v 0.1% prior - 06:00 (ES) Spain's Deputy Trade Min Legaz speaks on Trade Promotion - 06:00 (FR) France Debt Agency (AFT) to sell up to 1.0-1.5B in I/L 2021, 2024 and 2040 Oati - 06:00 (CZ) Czech Republic to sell Bills - 06:30 (US) Daily Libor Fixing - 07:00 (BR) Brazil July Final IGP-M Inflation: 0.3%e v 0.7% prelim - 07:00 (RU) Russia Gold & Forex Reserve w/e July 12th: No est v $505.B prior - 07:30 (BR) Brazil Central Bank (COPOM) Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes - 08:00 (ZA) South Africa Central Bank (SARB) interest rate press conference - 08:00 (EU) EU President Van Rompuy - 08:30 (US) Initial Jobless Claims: 345Ke v 360K prior; Continuing Claims: 2.959Me v 2.977M prior - 08:30 (CA) Canada May Wholesale Sales M/M: 0.3%e v 0.2% prior - 08:30 (US) Weekly USDA Net Export Sales - (ZA) South Africa Central Bank (SARB) Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave Interest Rates unchanged at 5.00% - 09:00 (MX) Mexico Jun Unemployment Rate: 5.0%e v 4.9% prior - 09:00 (RO) Romania to sell Bonds - 09:45 (GR) German Fin Min Schaeuble with Greece Fin Min Stournaras - 10:00 (US) Fed Chairman Bernanke delivers Semi-Annual Policy Report to Senate - 10:00 (DE) German Chancellor Merkel campaigns in Bavaria - 10:00 (US) API Monthly Statistical Report - 10:00 (US) July Philadelphia Fed: 8.0e v 12.5 prior - 10:00 (US) Jun Leading Indicators: 0.3%e v 0.1% prior - 10:30 (US) Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventories - 11:00 (US) Treasury Refunding Annoucement for 2-year, 5-year and 7-year notes - 11:00 (US) Fed to purchase $2.75-3.50B in Bonds - 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell $15B in 10-Year TIPS - 13:30 (BR) Brazil to sell 2014, 2015, 2017 and 2019 Bills - 18:00 (IT) Italy Berlusconi Prosecutors seek Indictment in Corruption Probe


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