Friday July 19, 2013 - 03:35:29 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
Morning Briefing : 19-Jul-2013 -0333 GMT
The Dow (15548.54, +0.50%, +78.02) has started moving up after its sideways consolidation. We look for an eventual rise towards 15900. The DAX (8337.09) too was up strongly yesterday but may find Resistance near 8400 today.
The Shanghai (2030, +0.31%) is managing to hold above Support at 2020 for now, but needs to move up sharly towards 2075 to calm downside fears. Concerns about Chinese growth prospects are still there in the market. Surprsingly, the Nikkei (14648, -1.09%) is down sharply despite a weaker Yen, running into stiff profit-taking above 14900 today. Longs have to be careful now. There could be a fall in case of a break below 14400.
The Nifty (6038.05) rose pretty well yesterday. We look for 6075 and higher in the coming days as some of he results (TCS) seem to be better.
Gold (1289.60) is still lingering below the 1290 mark. Overall, we remain bearish.
Silver (19.51) is moving up again. Might just be able to reach 19.65-75 before closing. Long-term Resistance coming up near 20.00-20.25 now.
Copper (3.15) is finding its way towards the 3.17-18 mark to close for the week. With the charts supporting its uptrend, it is likely that it could break the jinx and rise past the 3.20 level and may even move towards 3.30 in a couple of weeks.
Brent (108.81) looks to be moving steadily towards the 109 mark. With strong support being seen in the charts, we remain bullish for a close at around 109 for the week and maybe 110-112 next week.
The Euro (1.3145) is managing to build higher lows and remains in an overall uptrend that can target 1.33 next week. Of course, a rise past 1.32 is needed for that. The Pound (1.5242) has met our target of 1.5250. It faces an important Resistance here today, but may try to break above it as long as Support at 1.5170 holds.
Dollar-Yen (100.08) rose to a high of 100.86 today (we had set a target of 100.70 yesterday) but is seeing profit-taking from there. Crucial Support at 99.60 now. The market is probably getting into "Square" mode ahed of the Japan upper house elections even though Shinzo Abe is expected to sail through.
The Aussie (0.9186) has found Support in the 0.9150-35 region after seeing profit-taking near 0.9300 the day before. Look for a fresh rise towards 0.9250-9300 while the Supports hold.
Dollar-Rupee (59.67) could move up towards 59.90-60.00 as some EM currencies are looking a little weaker.
The US 10-Yr (2.52%) has moved up above 2.50% again. Failure to come down below 2.50% again soon could lead to a rise towards 2.60%. The Philadelphia Fed Index jumped to as high as 19.8 yesterday suggesting good recovery. The market will focus on the US Existing Home Sales and New Home Sales next week, to see whether the bad Housing Starts earlier this week will pull these numbers down as well.
The German-US 2-Yr Spread (-0.23%) is consolidating just below -0.20%. A rise from here would be helpful for the Euro.
India's 10-Yr GOI (8.04%) came off a bit yesterday from 8.10% earlier.
12:30 GMT or 18:00 IST CA Inflation Y/Y
...Previous 0.70 %
EU EA (17) Curr Acct Bal
...Actual 19.60 EUR Bln ... Previous 19.50 EUR Bln
US Philifed Index
...Actual 19.80 ...Previous 12.50
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